Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025 4: 30 P.M.

Once again a snow system approaching us garnered a Winter Storm Warning even though the forecast doesn’t add up to the criteria.

A “Winter Storm” is supposed to have at least 4″ inches of snow and create significant road problems. So why does their Louisville forecast predict 1″-3″ of snow and minor road problems? Beats me!

Anyway, as we’ve been following this system for the past several days, some small changes with the forecast have been noticeable. Yesterday, the shift southward with the max snow axis (from right over Louisville to about 50 miles south of town. Today, a new wrinkle has popped up – forecasts for snow amounts have edged lower.

The usual snow to water ratio is 10 to 1. A little lower for wet snow and higher for dry snow. For example, this morning’s fluffy dry snow was about one inch while the liquid equivalent was only .01″. An amazing ratio of 100 to one! It’s not unusual for a dry snow ratio to reach 20 to one, or even 30 to one. But, 100 to one is amazing!

I say that because tonight’s snow will be dry and fluffy, so the water equivalent will again be low, but the cold, dry air means snowfall amounts could jump quickly upward.

Taking those things into consideration, my current thoughts are …

Clouds return soon followed by light snow beginning by 9-11 P.M. Snow should taper off by 7-8 A.M. tomorrow. Based on a snow ratio of 20 to 30, I expect snow accumulations of 2″ to 4″ for the Metro area. The lower end of that range should be north of I-64 with amounts slowly increasing south of the Interstate. With the low water content, the roads should improve quickly during the day. Then, some really cold air for a couple of days.

Stuff

Is the National Weather Service REALLY on “Elon and his Muskies” hit list?