Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026 5:30 P.M.

The evolution of this storm since Sunday has been fun to watch. Then, a small “cut-off” upper air disturbance was projected to drop into the far SW corner of California, Arizona, and northern Mexico. From there, it was projected on an ENE path to bring snow/ice to the southern states and off the east coast. We were projected to have no snow here and no snow north of Virginia along the east coast.

Then, AS ALWAYS, the daily small changes started adding up to a major change four days later. What happened?

+First, the weak cut-off over the southwest dropped several hundred miles farther south than expected. That put it over the Pacific Ocean where it attracted a large amount of moisture. This was not a part of original expectations. That led to a more “energetic” system.

Second, the cut-off’s unexpected southern divergence led to a series of changes downstream. The Storm turned to a more NE path which has allowed Gulf of Mexican moisture to flow farther north. Each day the predicted northern edge of the snow/ice has drifted northward. Sunday, it was southern KY; today it’s moved to the Great Lakes!

So, as we stand now, the axis of the predicted maximum snowfall lies right along the Ohio Valley! So, how much snow?

First, a little history. Back in the 60’s and 70’s we forecasters had a common expression when there was a “difficult” forecast looming – “Take five forecasters, isolate them, and give them copies of all the charts. The results – five different forecasts. Computer forecast models were in their infancy then, but have since improved forecasting immensely.

So, back to today. Now we have forecast models that are very good, but not perfect. Now we can take ten (or more) models, combine all the model data into one single composite. The idea is to get all the variations smoothed out to make a forecast as good as you can get. The results are very, very good, but still not perfect.

So, how much snow? The latest composite forecast for Louisville area is for an accumulation of 12″ – 15″. Lexington about 1-3″ more than Louisville. It’ll begin around midday Saturday, then heavier snow Saturday night, then tapering slowly Sunday afternoon. Winds will become strong Sunday with lots of drifting snow.

NOTE: I’ve tried to point out how some seemingly insignificant events can influence events in the future. We’re still two days away…THINGS CHANGE!