Live by the models; die by the models.

In today’s case it’s death by the models.  For the past couple of days I’ve mentioned a little upper air system that was supposed to stall over Missouri for about 12 hours, then drift ESE toward Kentucky.  But, nature doesn’t really care what the models predict.  Nature has a mind of its own.

Everything was moving along as expected – lots of rain/storms over eastern MO last night as the upper system was expected to pause south of St. Louis for about 12 hours then start moving toward us by late morning with our round of showers/storms to arrive by tonight and continue into Monday.  Sounded pretty reasonable EXCEPT the upper disturbance never stopped!  So push everything up 12 hours and we have a rainy Sunday with the showers/storms moving away tonight.  That leaves much better weather prospects for Monday, but , of course, poorer prospects today.

We’ll see a break from the rain for a few hours this afternoon, but then a renewal (probably between 5-9 P.M. ) of heavier rain, then decreasing lighter showers ending after midnight.

The week ahead looks like we’ll be slowly evolving into a heat wave (highs of 90+) by mid to late week.  Unlike past  heat waves this summer that have built for a few days then quickly ended, this one should last longer – at least into next week.

Now it’s back to the drawing board for this embarrassed forecaster.