Since yesterday there have been a few changes in the models, so here are a few updates on what to expect tonight and tomorrow.
First, the three models I follow have meshed into general agreement with the primary change since yesterday’s post being a general delay in the storm activity. As expected, all models have pretty much dropped the idea of afternoon thunderstorms here, but south-central Indiana could get hit by by 6P.M. There is still a small (30% chance) for thunderstorms in the area from 8pm until midnight.
That’s when the biggest change occurs. Original thinking had the big cluster of storms in our area between midnight and 6am. Now it appears that cluster won’t arrive until 6am until Noon. As these clusters (mesoscale convective complexes, for those who really want technical talk) normally fade fast during those hours, that. certainly greatly reduces any severe storm threat. It also reduces the amount of rain we should get. The Weather Service’s precipitation unit predicts almost two inches for us, but with the delayed timing I feel we’ll be lucky to get half that much. In fact, a few signs are popping up that a half inch might be a better estimate. My garden could use a good soaking, so I hope it doesn’t drop below a half inch.
The models agree that any strong upper air energy will pass us by Tuesday Noon. So, any lingering showers should fade quickly during the afternoon.