How low will it go?

Wednesday Afternoon

Zero is tomorrow’s record low.  From what I’ve been reading and hearing, breaking that record is a “no-brainer.”  Most of the forecasts locally have -5 to -10 as the low (the NWS says -11 for the city).  It very well may get that low, but I doubt it.  Two reasons: clouds and winds.

For the past several days, the forecast for Thursday morning has been around -10,  But, for the past two days the Models have made an abrupt change to forecasting a low just above zero.  Yes, the models know we have a deep snow cover, so that’s not the reason for the change.  But every forecast I’ve heard today has IGNORED what the models are trying to tell us.  I don’t think that’s wise.

To get extremely cold readings like -10 around here you need very cold air (we’ve got that), deep snow cover (we have that),  clear skies (iffy) and near-calm winds (very iffy).  So, it’s not a sure thing, and some of the temp/wind chill forecasts I’m hearing seem far too low.  First, the clouds.  Satellite/model trends have the clouds diminishing this evening and going clear after midnight.  So that should only retard the cooling a little.  The winds, however, will play a much more important roll in tonight’s low.  If the winds die down to less than 5 mph, we’ll see a good shot at -5 to -10.  However, the winds are predicted to remain 6 to 12 mph most of the night.  If that is correct, you can say goodbye to -10 and probably even -5!

By Louisville standards, it is extremely cold – and it’s going to stay this way for the next 36 hours.  But, most of the temperatures and winds chills being tossed around seem far too extreme!  I’ll go with a low in Louisville of 0 to -2 and wind chills about -15 to -20.  As usual, it’ll be colder in rural areas.

BIG MESS for Saturday

Storm shaping up in the Rockies will keep the winter weather coming.  Look for light snow developing Friday, then a changeover to freezing rain/sleet Friday night, and finally to liquid rain Saturday. Lot’s of flooding on city intersections due to clogged sewers Saturday.  More specifics tomorrow as the amounts/timing.

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