Zero is tomorrow’s record low. From what I’ve been reading and hearing, breaking that record is a “no-brainer.” Most of the forecasts locally have -5 to -10 as the low (the NWS says -11 for the city). It very well may get that low, but I doubt it. Two reasons: clouds and winds.
For the past several days, the forecast for Thursday morning has been around -10, But, for the past two days the Models have made an abrupt change to forecasting a low just above zero. Yes, the models know we have a deep snow cover, so that’s not the reason for the change. But every forecast I’ve heard today has IGNORED what the models are trying to tell us. I don’t think that’s wise.
To get extremely cold readings like -10 around here you need very cold air (we’ve got that), deep snow cover (we have that), clear skies (iffy) and near-calm winds (very iffy). So, it’s not a sure thing, and some of the temp/wind chill forecasts I’m hearing seem far too low. First, the clouds. Satellite/model trends have the clouds diminishing this evening and going clear after midnight. So that should only retard the cooling a little. The winds, however, will play a much more important roll in tonight’s low. If the winds die down to less than 5 mph, we’ll see a good shot at -5 to -10. However, the winds are predicted to remain 6 to 12 mph most of the night. If that is correct, you can say goodbye to -10 and probably even -5!
By Louisville standards, it is extremely cold – and it’s going to stay this way for the next 36 hours. But, most of the temperatures and winds chills being tossed around seem far too extreme! I’ll go with a low in Louisville of 0 to -2 and wind chills about -15 to -20. As usual, it’ll be colder in rural areas.
BIG MESS for Saturday
Storm shaping up in the Rockies will keep the winter weather coming. Look for light snow developing Friday, then a changeover to freezing rain/sleet Friday night, and finally to liquid rain Saturday. Lot’s of flooding on city intersections due to clogged sewers Saturday. More specifics tomorrow as the amounts/timing.