Warm, wet week ahead

Monday Afternoon (Mar. 9)

The polar jet has disappeared for awhile, so the cold air will stay far north this week.  The Subtropical (Southern) Jet rules the week ahead.  This jet is far weaker than the Polar Jet, but does have its foot in the Gulf of Mexico, so plenty of water is available.

Rains today over the south-central U.S.  will ride the jet slowly northeastward tonight.  Rain should begin after midnight and continue off and on most of the day tomorrow.  As this system is short on energy, no excessive rains are likely.  The NAM puts us around 1.5″ of rain but the GFS pushes the heaviest rains over southern KY.  Although the NAM placed the rain and snow last week almost perfectly, I feel the GFS looks more realistic with the weaker system.

Looks like Wednesday should be dry and warm.  Temperatures should reach at least 60, but any 3-4 hour break in the clouds could push us to the mid to upper 60’s.

Thursday’s weather looks very questionable at this time.  The NAM wants very much to bring another of northward, much like tomorrow.  Meanwhile, the GFS pushes the moisture eastward during the day and then brings some rain northward to Louisville Thursday night into Friday.

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