Snow is here – how much?

Friday a.m. 1/22/2016

Updates and adjustments

This morning’s computer runs have continued the southern route, even more than I thought.  Nevertheless, snow has been coming down prettily for the past couple of hours.  The other, more significant, change is the increased forward speed of the storm.  According to the models, the primary energy is already pushing into the Appalachians.  Heaviest bands of snow, etc. have already pushed east of I-75.  That means the 8″-12″ snows expected south of Louisville toward Bowling Green will probably not materialize.  But, 12″+ plus still looks like a good bet over southeastern KY.

With the primary energy pushing eastward so quickly, that will shorten the time we’ll be under a moderate snow cover.  Last night, the target time for the heaviest snow was expected to be between Noon and 6 P.M.  Now, the models are pointing toward the best chance for heaviest snow to  be ending by 1 or 2 P.M.  After that we’ll see mostly light to occasionally very light snow through early evening. Snow should be ending by 7-8 P.M.

Radar trends are already showing diminishing trends to the snow locally.  That should hold through the afternoon.  Even though this is a huge storm system, with the primary energy production moving east, we’red stuck with the leftovers.  Still plenty of moisture left, but for us the dynamics to produce heavy snow are weakening.

But, I have revised my forecast for snow upward a bit.  Louisville area should see an accumulation of 2″-4″

More in a few hours.

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