Some minor changes from previous 2/2/2016 blog.
A large, unorganized cluster of showers/thunderstorms has popped up over western KY and is spreading NE. Based on a few isolated storm reports, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for all of central KY south of the Louisville area. Models are even stronger than before on the rapid decrease in strength as this storm area moves east. Heaviest storms, possibly severe, will remain over southcentral KY with a better chance in TN. As mentioned, the storm cluster is moving into an unfavorable stability situation, so heavy remain seems to be the main concern in the Louisville area (35 miles in all directions from city).
Primary threat remains the cold front itself. It is suddenly getting very active near the Mississippi River. This still looks as though it’ll pass through the Louisville area between 10 P.M. and 2 A.M. It, too, will have the instability problem but should produce some very heavy rain. (See earlier post)