Friday, February 12, 2016

Another blast of cold air is pushing across the Ohio Valley setting the stage for a very cold weekend. The new surge of cold air should bring along  some snow flurries, but just a dusting of snow is likely.  High temperatures tomorrow will only reach 20-22 but Sunday should warm to around 30.  But, the big question is whether all that cold air will be setting the table for some snow.

Yesterday, I discussed the upper level “wave train”  that would the big feature in our weather for the next few days.  (Additional details in yesterday’s post)  Wave 1 passed over the area this morning with the expected results.  Wave 2 still looks on target to the discussion yesterday…with one exception.  It now looks as though the timing of the system will be about 6-12 hours earlier thought.

So, Sunday’s outlook now looks like this:  Thickening clouds during the day with light snow beginning by late afternoon.  Periods of light snow continue overnight but ending before daybreak.  This remains a rather disorganized storm system.  Snow forecast remains in the 1″ to 2″ for the Louisville area with perhaps a little more over southern Kentucky.

Biggest changes to forecast are with the “last wave on the train.”  As mentioned yesterday, the last energy pulse is (almost) always the strongest.  Today’s models have emphasized that idea by making wave 3 even deeper that yesterday.  If this trend holds up, what once looked like a good chance for a sizable snowstorm now looks as though it’ll probably miss us entirely.  Now appears that the storm will organize over the Gulf states then head up the Appalachians as another major snow-maker for the eastern states.

As things stand now, the Washington’s Birthday holiday will be cloudy and cold with snow flurries possible – a far cry from what the models have been indicating for the past week.  Oh, well.  There’s still time for change.

Stuff

Valentine’s Day derives from an ancient Roman festival named Lupercalia.  The February 13-15th festival was a fertility rite believed to be in honor of the god of agriculture.