Monday, July 18, 2016  6 P.M.

Atmosphere has quieted over much of the region and should remain calm, but very warm and muggy tonight.  In spite of the Weather Service’s 40% chance for rain/t-storms tonight, the actual chance for rain is pretty close to zero.

Plenty of heat and humidity will be the primary story this week,  Don’t be surprised if we reach the upper 90’s.

What happened to that “Godzilla” El Nino

We did have a strong El Nino during the winter.  It actually turned out to be a little stronger than the one in 1998, but it was far less destructive for the U.S.  In fact, this El Nino  could probably be described as more beneficial than damaging for the western states.  Reservoir levels at at, or slightly above, normal for July from central California northward, but conditions remain far too dry over the south.  If this winter was “Godzilla”, California could use several more winters just like it.

Almost always, El Nino’s are followed by La Nina conditions.  It didn’t take long.  Ocean water temperatures have been falling for months.  Neutral conditions were reached during May.  Then last week entered weak La Nina conditions.  How strong the La Nina will become remains to be seen, but current forecasts predict it’ll remain in the mild to moderate range through the rest of the year.  As a result, global air temperatures  will probably drop below normal for a few months later this year.