Friday, January 27, 2017  4 P.M.

A weak upper air disturbance this morning brought us some flurries and a second one will bring us some more flurries for the evening rush hour.  With temperatures safely above the 32-degree mark, no problems are expected.

Cold weather should remain through the weekend with additional weak disturbances bringing additional periods of flurries.  Finally, a much stronger upper air system will cross the area Sunday afternoon and evening.  This is expected to upgrade the flurries to  a period of light snow and/or snow showers.  This morning the GFS and NAM were far apart on their portrayals of what the result will look like, but now the NAM upping its game toward the GFS solution.  But, don’t get too excited – even the “stronger” GFS still keeps snow expectations below one inch.

The current outlook for Sunday calls for some light snow/snow showers between (roughly) 3 P.M. and 8 P.M.  This should not have much of an effect on surface roadways, but bridges/overpasses/etc. could get some slick spots.  Snow accumulation should be light – anywhere from a dusting up to an inch.  For Louisville, about a half inch seems likely.

Bummer

My post earlier this week has already proven me right and wrong.  My long time conviction that long range prediction is  a fool’s game has been proven yet again.  But, my insistence to try it anyway is where I went wrong (probably).  My idea that the cold air arriving this weekend would hold through next week will not happen – unseasonably mild weather will return for next week.  Further, I said that some really cold weather should arrive around Super Bowl time – that part will probably hold, although it’s not looking quite as cold.  The worst part of my “outlook” was that the below normal trend should continue through most of February.  Sadly, that appears to no longer the case.

Moral of the story:  I should follow my own advice!