As the weekend approaches so does rain, but does it get here?

Thursday Afternoon

The pleasant weather of the past few days will be fading away as more typical July heat and humidity.  As mentioned yesterday, the GFS and NAM models were pretty wide apart concerning the possibilities for rain over the weekend.  Today’s runs show a definite shift by both models.  The NAM has made a big shift toward yesterday’s GFS while the new GFS has made a small jog toward the NAM.  So as of now, they are pretty much on the same page.  Both models return rain/t-storms to the Ohio Valley tomorrow night with the emphasis over southern and eastern KY.  These showers are not likely to reach as far north as Louisville or southern IN.  Showers/t-storms should linger over eastern KY (east of I-75) Saturday morning.  Then, a typical very warm and humid summer afternoon follows.  Sunday’s outlook remains the same.  Most likely hot and humid, but the GFS still is hinting at some t-storms late in the day.  Best chance still looks like south and/or east of Louisville.  Good news for Forecastle.

2014 temperature update

After the cold start to the year, our temperatures have warmed (compared to average) for the past few months.  But, July has hit the downward through the first half.  With a mild El Nino building in the Pacific, a good bet for the rest of the year would be for temperatures to be a little above average.

2014 so far…

  1. January  -6.3
  2. February  -5.9
  3. March  -3.9
  4. April   +1.9
  5. May  +2.0
  6. June  +2.2
  7. July  -2.6  (so far)


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