Confusing weather…3 P.M. update

Thursday, March 30, 2017  3 P.M.

Latest update based on short-term model and radar data…

1).  Most of the area (maybe all) should remain dry through at least 5 P.M.  Best chance for strong pop-up thunderstorms remains over Indiana.

2).  Between 5- 7 P.M.  Louisville area will see about a 40% chance for scattered thunderstorms.     Any storms that form could be strong, but any severe storms should be rare.  By 7 P.M. any chance for severe thunderstorms for the Louisville area will be over.

3).  By 7-9 P.M. a large area of strong-to-severe thunderstorms will break out over northern TN and southern KY and move rapidly northeast between I-65 and I-75.  Threat of severe storms will lie south and east of a line from Bowling Green to Cincinnati.

4). By 7 P.M. a weak cold front will be crossing the Wabash River (Indiana/Illinois border) and continue moving eastward.  At this time the front could be producing moderate to strong thunderstorms.  As the front moves eastward, its moisture will merge with the system mentioned in #3 (above) to create a large area of rain with weak to moderate thunderstorms mixed in.  This area should drop plenty of rain over our area between 8 P.M. and Midnight.  Some minor flash flooding will be possible.

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