5:45 P.M. Friday, April 21, 2017

Model solutions have done a flip-flop in the past 24 hours.  Yesterday, the NAM gave by far the best weather outlook for Saturday’s events.  Today the GFS is our friend.  Which one is right?  Good question!  I’ve asked myself the same question many, many times over the years.  Usually, there’s at least some “truth” in both models.  The NAM, as expected, had a better take on today’s weather.  Tomorrow, it appears to me that the GFS has a better handle on the situation.  Here’s how I see it evolving:

First of the heavier rain systems moves into the Louisville area between 7 and 8 P.M.  Rain could get heavy at times late tonight and tomorrow morning.   Rain ends during the midday hours (Noon – 2 P.M.).  Cloudy and cold rest of afternoon into the evening  (50-ish temperatures likely). So, air show should be dry but a low-hanging cloud cover may hinder some of the action.  For the fireworks, it’ll be breezy and cold  (near 50).  And, here’s where the NAM adds to the forecast – there’ll be about a 50-50 chance for light rain and/or drizzle during the show.