Sat. Sept 9, 2017

Landfall likely tomorrow in southwest Florida

Strongest winds still an open question

Not much more to say than in yesterday’s part 4 post.  Storm path pretty much the same forecast with adjustments probably no more than a few miles east or west.  Landfall should be around midday Sunday between Cape Coral (Fort Myers) and Port Elizabeth.  Then a slow journey north over Florida through early Monday.

I’m still not buying the wind forecast from the hurricane center.  As expected, Cuba has reduced Irma’s winds – now about 125 mph (Cat 3).  NHC predicts they will rebound to about 140 mph by landfall.  Continual interaction with Cuba and Florida should keep Irma from regaining that much strength.  I expect no more than 130 mph, and probably a little less.  Nevertheless, still a very potent hurricane.

It’s going to be a very agonizing wait for Floridians.