Saturday, Feb. 9, 2019

Flood Watch is back

As the dome of cold air over us retreats slowly eastward, southwesterly winds aloft are pushing warmer, wetter air our way.  As the new air mass arrives, it’ll be gliding upward over the cold air.  That lifting will generate increasing clouds tonight. By mid-morning tomorrow, some rain should start falling from those clouds.  The critical question is what the surface temperatures will be.  Today’s temperatures did not warm as much as expected, so only a small drop will put us below freezing this evening.  The increasing clouds will halt the temperature drop and possibly allow a slow warming toward morning.  But it appears to me that temperatures will still be at or below 32 when the rain starts.  Thus, we’ll have a period of light freezing rain to contend with.  Icy conditions on roads will be likely, especially on untreated roads.

Temperatures should rise above freezing by late morning and road problems should be over by Noon.  Then, light rain continues during the afternoon.

Another period of heavy rain likely tomorrow through midday Tuesday

Just like last week, the next approaching system brings the opportunity for several periods of rain.  Heaviest rain looks like Monday night.  Human forecasters in Washington have dropped a 3″-4″ forecast on us.  Local NWS forecast is 2″-3″.  Computer models are lower with the GFS just over 2″ and the NAM just under 2″.  Thus, the Flood Watch has been re-issued.

If we get as much as last week (approx 2″), river flooding is likely beginning Tuesday.  Whether or not we get much rain the next several days, the Ohio River will rise above flood stage by Wednesday.  If you live in the Ohio’s flood plain, get prepared.