Wednesday, Jan.21, 2026 6P.M.

The season’s coldest air mass, so far, will drop over most of the eastern half of the Autocracy of the U.S. in time for the weekend. A cold air mass of this intensity tends to cause any large storm systems to head southward to move around the cold air. Not this time.

About a week ago, computer forecast models started predicting a small pack of energy to “cut off” from the main upper air flow. At that time, the models projected the cut-off to drift into southern California/Arizonia, then head ENE over the southern U.S. This rather weak system would drift over the southern states and create a large area of some snow, but, mostly a major ice storm from northern Texas to North Carolina and out to sea.

By Monday, there was a large difference in models. The GFS, the prime US model, followed the scenario described above. But other models were predicting the eventual path of the cut-off to be hundreds of miles farther north.

And that’s the way it’s going to turn out. That change will create a much larger area of snow centered over northern Tennessee and Kentucky. The sleet/freezing rain storm remains south of the snow.

It’s still too early to determine the exact path of the storm and the amounts of snow and ice. But, for now, the GFS predicts 6″ – 8″ for the Louisville area while the consensus model goes 8″-12″.

It’s going to be very cold during the snowstorm, so we’ll have a very dry, fluffy snow and it’ll be hard to measure due to a lot of drifting.

Friday, January 16, 2025 4 P.M.

A cold front will be crossing the area over the next 6 hours or so. Not much moisture is available, but the upper level wide fields are favorable for enough lifting to squeeze out some precipitation between now and Midnight. Temperatures aloft are quite cold so snow will be the expected form of precipitation.

However, surface temperatures reached the 40’s this afternoon. Thus, I expect to see a rain/snow mix at onset. That will cause temperatures to drop quickly and we should see snow become the dominate precipitation form by 6-7 P.M. Through the evening, temperatures are expected to remain in the 30’s. That’s good news for area roadways as they should remain wet, not icy. Some snow accumulation, however, is likely on grassy areas. Snow totals locally should be up to one inch on those off-road surfaces. East of Louisville area, snow accumulations (grassy areas) could hit 1-2″ (Shelbyville) and possibly 3″ near Frankfort and Lexington.

Stuff

Isn’t it ironic that the person who commonly calls Joe Biden “Sleepy Joe” is now falling asleep in public almost every day?

Saturday, Dec. 13, 2025 4PM

Unusually cold air slides in tonight with single-digit temperatures likely tomorrow and Monday mornings. Winds are expected to remain about 10 MPH (plus or minus 5), so wind chills should drop below zero, but nothing extreme. Strong warming will begin Monday.

As the colder air arrives this evening, some light snow will be possible for a few hours. Yesterday, forecast models indicated little or no snow accumulation. That would be typical for this type of system. By this morning, however, the models “found” a little more moisture and the National Weather Service now says about 2″ of snow for Louisville!

But, the most recent short-term forecast models are back to little to no snow this evening. That goes back to the usual expectations.

Whatever the amount of snowfall, it’ll be here roughly between 7 and 11 P.M. I’ll stick with the “little to no” accumulation for the Louisville area. However, slightly higher amounts will be likely east of here – perhaps up to an inch along the I-75 corridor.

Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025 1:30 P.M.

Blanket of 2″-4″ of snow likely by morning!

The Alberta Clipper mentioned last night is still on target for a solid hit on us tonight. Latest estimates expect snow to begin by 8 P.M. with most accumulations likely between 9 P.M. and 1 A.M. Then slowing snow fall late tonight. With the models all converging on the same solution – basically what the GFS was hinting at last night, a slight bump upward in snow totals is warrented.

This, as most Clippers, will be a rather narrow line of accumulation. The axis of 2-4″ snow should be about 50-75 miles wide centered on a path from NW to SE across southern IN – through Louisville – to south of Lexington. As you head S and W of Louisville there will be a rapid drop off of accumulations. On the northern side of the path, snow accumulations will drop slowly.

This system is not bringing much cold air along with it, so a good bit of melting will occur tomorrow and Saturday. Major roadways have been brined so not many problems expected there. However, smaller roads should be snow-covered by morning.

NEXT: The long advertized bitterly cold air arrives Saturday night. It should bring another patch of snow (likely less than tonight). But the big thing will be the cold/wind. Single digit temperatures likely Sunday and Monday.

LATER: The longer term picture is showing a major reversal in weather patterns over the U.S. beginning around Christmas (Saturnalia, if you wish). Cold weather returns to the western regions while major warming sets in over the eastern half of the country. It appears that severe thunderstorms around Christmas will be more likely than snowy roads!

STUFF: Things just keep running through my head…

1st U.S. President: “I cannot tell a lie.”

Last U.S. President/1st Autocrat: “I cannot tell the truth.”

MARA – Make America a Republic Again

Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 11 P.M.

A weak Alberta Clipper will move quickly tomorrow from Montana and the Dakotas SE into our area by tomorrow night. Models put the system on a perfect path to bring light snow into southern IN and northern KY starting tomorrow evening. System has little energy, but should produce a fairly wide area of 1″-3″ of snow.

GFS model puts axis of the snow right over the Louisville area, but NAM models push the axis about 40-50 miles NE of Louisville. Usually, the GFS is a little better on snow forecasts. Some “fine-tuning” is likely tomorrow.

Monday, Dec. 1, 2025 6:30 P.M.

It’s been fun today to watch how two different systems were going merge and what that means for us.

First, a dying storm has been producing mostly 2″-4″+ snows over Missouri and southern Illinois. That system will produce 2-4″ snows over southern IN tonight – starting about 30 miles (or so) north of the Ohio River.

That energy is now shifting southward to hook up with a new storm coming northeast from Texas. That will combine to create a large snow/rain system spreading NE overnight. Snow will break out around midnight and move rapidly NE. It’ll leave 2-4″ of snow over southern KY into West Virginia overnight. Once again heaviest snow area will begin about 30 miles (or so) south of the river.

Models strongly support a weak “dry” slot moving along the river. The result: Louisville area likely to see 1″ to 2″ of snow. Probably closer to the 1″. Accumulations mostly on grassy areas – don’t expect too much on roads.

Inside the Watterson, accumulations should be less than 1″. Heaviest snow time – 2-5 A.M.

Recent Changes

Sunday, November 30, 2025 6 P.M.

For many months, the U.S. long range forecast models have followed the usual trends for a “La Nina” winter. We are currently in weak La Nina conditions and are expected to slowly rise into the neutral range early next year. La Nina status is when sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific are below normal…as they are now.

A La Nina winter pattern usually starts as most of Canada with colder than normal temperatures while the U.S. has above normal warmth. The major storm track tends to run along the warm/cold boundary. Then, in January, the cold Canadian air drops slowly southward into the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains. At the same time the primary storm track also drops south. By February, the colder than normal air masses and storm track drop even more southward. So the result is often called a” Late” Winter with most of the stormiest conditions during the latter half of the season,

Not this year! Starting early in November, the longer range models abruptly changed. Basically, the December forecast changed from warm to cold. That colder-than-normal outlook has locked in for December. The cold pattern warms a bit by January and back to neutral-to-warm temperatures by Febraury.

That’s a complete reversal of the La Nina cycle.

My personal thoughts generally agree with the new data. Look forward to a cold December with numerous chances for snow and rain. Then temperatures ease (compared to normal) in January but still pretty high levels of snow chances. More temperature easing in Feb.

Monday, November 10, 2025 Noon

Snow showers are currently moving through western and southern Jefferson County. These may leave a temporary minor accumulation on grassy areas, but will move quickly southeast away from us. Elsewhere in the Metro, nothing but flurries until mid-afternoon. No road problems expected.

Stuff:

Keep the NO KINGS movement going! Let’s shoot for ten million next time.