Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022 5 P.M.
The action begins this evening
If you’ve followed this blog recently, you’ve heard about how very slow changes in the atmosphere can add up over time. Also, we’re seeing today how these little changes can take you away from the original “solution” only to move back to the original forecast before the storm arrives. Such as the evolution of the snow amount forecast from last week until today.
Last week, the early indications were for about 2″ to 4″ from the system arriving now. By early this week the forecast for snow was down to about an inch or two. Then, this morning, the forecasts started climbing. Now we’re up to about 2″-3″ for Louisville while 3″-6″ appear likely over southern Indiana.
Yesterday, I mentioned that the changeover from rain to snow would be about an hour or two later than the previous estimate. Too bad I didn’t think too much about that, because it seems to be the reason for the increased snowfall forecasts. This is a developing storm. It just recently got it’s act together and will intensify rapidly overnight. The extra time before the onset of the snow allows the storm to gather more moisture. Little changes can make big differences.
Rain this evening will change to snow around 8-9 P.M. Winds will increase to 20-30 mph with higher gusts overnight. Temperatures will drop from the upper 40’s now to near zero by morning. Louisville’s snow total from 2″ to 3″. Areas north of the Ohio River could reach 6″ of snow. Hazardous road conditions due to ice, snow and blowing snow.
Tomorrow will remain very cold as temperatures remain in the single digits in addition to strong winds continuing. A mix of clouds and sunshine with flurries possible.
Christmas Eve and Christmas will remain quite cold. High Saturday about 15 and 20 on Sunday. Skies should be sunny to partly cloudy.