Category Archives: forecast

Confusing weather…3 P.M. update

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Thursday, March 30, 2017  3 P.M.

Latest update based on short-term model and radar data…

1).  Most of the area (maybe all) should remain dry through at least 5 P.M.  Best chance for strong pop-up thunderstorms remains over Indiana.

2).  Between 5- 7 P.M.  Louisville area will see about a 40% chance for scattered thunderstorms.     Any storms that form could be strong, but any severe storms should be rare.  By 7 P.M. any chance for severe thunderstorms for the Louisville area will be over.

3).  By 7-9 P.M. a large area of strong-to-severe thunderstorms will break out over northern TN and southern KY and move rapidly northeast between I-65 and I-75.  Threat of severe storms will lie south and east of a line from Bowling Green to Cincinnati.

4). By 7 P.M. a weak cold front will be crossing the Wabash River (Indiana/Illinois border) and continue moving eastward.  At this time the front could be producing moderate to strong thunderstorms.  As the front moves eastward, its moisture will merge with the system mentioned in #3 (above) to create a large area of rain with weak to moderate thunderstorms mixed in.  This area should drop plenty of rain over our area between 8 P.M. and Midnight.  Some minor flash flooding will be possible.

A very confusing situation…

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Thursday, March 30, 2017

The atmosphere may, or may not, be primed for severe storms later this afternoon/evening.  The confusion was apparent yesterday as the GFS and NAM far apart in their solutions for today’s weather/thunderstorm possibilities – the GFS wasn’t too keen on severe thunderstorms while the NAM jumped on severe weather big time.  Today, the GFS and NAM are closer, but still at odds.  Meanwhile the short term models, while agreeing in general about how things will evolve, are also divergent about the expected strength of any thunderstorms.

Going with the suspicion that each model has something good to add to the discussion, here’s how I believe the weather will evolve this afternoon/evening:                                                                First, the amount of cloud cover that remains this afternoon is very important.  Remains from storms to our west overnight have been hanging around this morning.  We should get enough brakes in the clouds this afternoon to allow some sunshine to build up heat (and energy) for some storms.  More sunshine is likely over KY than IN.  Lack of sunshine will diminish the severe storm threat.  Satellite data shows the clouds thinning as of Noon.

Second,  we have strong upper air dynamics over the midwest working their way slowly eastward, but surface conditions are a mishmash ( a highly technical term) of ill-defined air masses, outflow boundaries, and, so-far, ill-fated attempts to form a surface low pressure center and a cold front.  It looks as though it’ll take 4-8 hours or longer for things to get more organized.  By that time, the main threat for severe weather will shift east of the I-65 corridor.

Third, with lack of coordination between the upper and lower levels, things are just going to happen in a seeming random fashion this afternoon.  Quick-moving thunderstorms should pop up in a “hit ‘n’ miss” fashion over western and central KY and (mostly)  IN.  Most of these will be strong with gusty winds and hail possible.  Some could even reach “severe” limits, though these are likely to be few and far between.  By 6-7 P.M. the majority of these pop-up storms should be east of the I-65 corridor.  By this time, any severe weather threat should be over for the Louisville area.  Primary threat for severe storms this afternoon will be over central and northern Indiana.

Four,  by 7-8 P.M. the surface part of this system will be better organized and is expected to create a large area of rain and thunderstorms (non-severe)  over western KY and IN.  This will bring us a very wet evening.  Even a little flash flooding is possible.  Rain should diminish shortly after Midnight.

Comment

I see from this morning’s CJ  that  Rick and Cal are the two highest paid college basketball coaches in the land.  But, the educational ratings of the schools they coach are low.  We should gain an important bit of knowledge from the first two sentences.

Quick update – storms weakened quickly

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Monday, March 27, 2017  5:50 P.M.

Storms are fading fast as they advance quickly northeast.  Louisville metro will see weak thunderstorms between 6 and 7 P.M.  There is no threat for severe weather – just some brief gusty winds and heavy downpours.

I suspect the NWS will drop the Watch for our area soon.  However, even if they let the WATCH linger, the threat for severe storms is already over.

Strong storms possible until 7 P.M.

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Monday, March 27, 2017  5:30 P.M.

We’re on the northern edge of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch currently.  Primary concern lies south of Louisville over central KY and, especially, central TN.  Activity is due to a small, but intense upper level disturbance racing over the lower Ohio Valley.  Once again, the upper dynamics are strong, but the lower level instability is quite weak.  For the past  few hours, clusters of thunderstorms have been moving NE from southern/southwestern KY.  A few severe storm warnings have been issued, but it appears most of the storms, while strong, have stayed below severe limits (58 mph winds).  Main factor for us has been the weakening of the storms as they encounter the more stable air mass near the Ohio River.

Main line of storms will push through the I-65 corridor (and Louisville area) between 6 and 7 P.M. this evening.  Strong wind gusts and, perhaps, isolated spots of small hail will be likely as the line passes by.  Overall, these storms should have little affect on our  metro area.

BY 7 P.M. any storm threat for the Louisville are will end.  Any additional threat for severe storms will continue east and southeast of us.

Stuff

A little late for the big day itself, but some things to remember about St. Patrick:

1).  He was not Irish.  (He was born in England, sold into slavery in Ireland as a child.  He later escaped and returned to England where he became a priest.  Then he returned to Ireland to help bring Christianity to Ireland.

2).  It is true that there were no snakes in Ireland when Patrick died.  However, there were no snakes in Ireland when he arrived as a priest.  Irish snakes were destroyed about 10,000 years BEFORE Patrick’s era by the most recent Ice Age.

 

 

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Thursday, March 9, 2017  1:30 P.M.

Today’s forecast models continue the downward trend in the snow forecast they were making earlier this week.  I’ve always cautioned against believing snow forecasts made days in advance.  Too many subtle differences in nature can add up quickly to major changes.  Once again, that seems to be the case.  Here’s the GFS snow forecast from last night’s run:

You can see the change over the past few days by checking my last two posts.

Now that the predicted “event”  is closer we can get a much better feel for what’s going to happen.  The GFS has continued to push Saturday’s system farther south, keeping rain/snow confined to areas from southern KY and south.  The NAM also pushes the main system to our south. However, it still allows the northern edge of the snow to extend into northern KY and far southern IN.  This morning’s NAM predicts up to an inch for our area.  The GFS keeps us dry. On a probability of measurable precipitation basis the GFS gives us a 35%  chance while the more encouraging NAM puts it at 70%.

Personally, the GFS seems more reasonable and I’d lean toward the no snow side of the forecast.  However, the GFS’s “verification scores” have been very poor for the past 3-5 days, so there is still reason for hope.

Another GFS snow estimate

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Wednesday, March 8, 2017  8 P.M.

Counting down to Saturday’s possible snow…Yesterday’s GFS forecast can be seen on yesterday’s post.  Here’s today’s estimate from the GFS.

Can’t wait to see what tomorrow’s forecast holds…

Snow possible Saturday night!

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Tuesday, March 7, 2017  7 P.M.

Today’s GFS is predicting a nice snowfall Saturday night (see below).  Of course, a lot can, and will, happen between now and then.  But it is exciting to at least have the thought that we still could have a good snow before the season ends.  Unfortunately, the GFS stands alone at this time…the European model keeps the chance for significant snow north of us.

Meanwhile, here’s the GFS’s snow forecast for the 24-hour forecast ending at 7 A.M. Sunday:

Think snow!

Stuff
Streetside parking meters are illegal in the state of North Dakota.

Charity begins in the home…in this case.  An 87 year old preacher and his wife run an on-line ministry as a “non-profit” organization.  Last year they reported a net income for the website of 7 million dollars.  Their combined salaries added up to $4 million.  That reminds me of the old joke about what to do with the offering plate each Sunday.  “i take the plate, throw it up in the air.  God takes his share and whatever falls back down is mine.”  Only is this case, it’s not a joke!

 

 

Stormy night

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11:30 P.M. update…Feb. 28, 2017

As mentioned on previous post, the southern Illinois/southern Indiana region as become the new “hot spot” for severe/tornadic thunderstorms.   Super cell now crossing the Wabash River about 40 miles northwest of Evansville has a history of tornado production and should continue to create problems as it continues on a line about 40 miles north of the Ohio River.  This system is moving into a more stable atmosphere so activity will slowly weaken as it approaches the I-65 corridor.

In addition a large cluster of thunderstorms over southwestern KY/TN will also be weakening as it moves about 40-50 mph toward the northeast.  This should be in the Louisville area between about 2 A.M. until 4 A.M.  Biggest threat for us from these storms will be heavy rains/flash flooding.

Finally, the cold front will bring additional thunderstorms across the area between 7 A.M. and Noon.  Once again, flooding will be the primary threat.

Atmosphere is set for some big fireworks

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Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2017  3:30 P.M.

Both surface and upper air components of the atmosphere are converging on a major “sweet spot” where (and when) ample supplies of severe storm ingredients will come together soon.  A major outbreak of severe weather is expected with large hail, strong winds and tornadoes all looking likely.

WHERE:  Texas, eastern Oklahoma, most of Arkansas, eastern Missouri, Illinois and western Indiana.  Perhaps far western KY as well.

WHEN:  The arrival of the strong storm ingredients should occur over the southern parts of the states listed above around 6 P.M. EST.  The most severe activity will continue for about 8-12 hours.  The prime conditions will uncouple after that and activity will diminish tomorrow morning.  Additional strong storms (but not as strong as tonight’s storms) may reform tomorrow afternoon over eastern KY.

A storm system developing over central Missouri now will rapidly intensify under a very strong upper air flow over the Mississippi Valley and reach the Great Lakes by morning.  Trailing the low pressure will be an eastward moving cold front.  As the front moves into the warm, moist air thunderstorms will break out this evening and accelerate northeastward.  The strong wind fields aloft will have no problems converting the thunderstorms into severe weather-makers quickly.  During the evening, the biggest problems will be over ne TX, east OK and AR.  By Midnight, the greatest threat pushes northward into eastern MO, IL and western IN.  From Midnight until about 6 A.M., the models put a  “bulls eye” over southern IL and southern IN for the greatest damage risk.  NOTE: although the models zero in on the area north of the Ohio River, a few isolated severe storms could develop over western KY counties bordering the Ohio River.

By 6 A.M. the severe storms should be over, or at least diminishing.  By that time the remaining lines/clusters of thunderstorms will be approaching the Louisville area.  The primary area of rain/storms should push through the I-65 corridor between 8 A.M. and Noon.  Some strong winds may still be possible, but the primary threat for our area will be flash flooding.  After the periods of heavy rain today, the ground is saturated.  Additional heavy downpours tomorrow morning would be enough to trigger brief flash flooding.

The cold front is expected to pass though the Louisville area about Noon tomorrow so any additional severe weather generation tomorrow afternoon will be over eastern KY.  Meanwhile, we’ll start a drying process during the afternoon as cooler air arrives.

Stuff

Sunday night’s big Oscar blunder wasn’t the first time that has happened.  But, the first time it happened, the category wasn’t a major one.  In 1964, the “Best Music Score”  award was announced for the movie “Tom Jones.”  But that movie wasn’t even nominated!  The actual winner was Andre Previn for “Irma La Douce.”

Another severe weather attempt

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Monday, Feb. 27, 2017

Another strong storm will come out of the southern Rockies and push toward the Great Lakes by Wednesday.  This is a classic severe storm set-up, but the likely timing of the system currently puts us into the very low side of severe storm possibilities.  The highest risk areas will be west of us tomorrow afternoon/evening and east of us for Wednesday afternoon.

The past two similar systems were moisture-shy.  In both cases, nothing of consequence happened locally – thanks to that lack of moisture.  This time, however, there will be plenty of moisture in the equation.  So severe storm outbreaks appear likely tomorrow and Wednesday, but, as mentioned above, the main part of the storm system will reach us during the lull between the two outbreaks.

Here’s how it’s shaping up…a warm front will push through the lower Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow morning.  This will bring high moisture content into the area.  The front should generate a few hours of showers (and possible thunderstorms) tomorrow morning between about 7 A.M. through Noon.  Any thunderstorms that form tomorrow morning could produce small hail. Then, we’ll see a windy and warm afternoon with temperatures nearing 70 degrees.

During tomorrow afternoon/evening thunderstorms will develop along a cold front from Arkansas to Missouri into Illinois.  A widespread outbreak of severe weather is expected.  As the night continues this cluster of severe weather will drift eastward and weaken.  It is expected to drift through the I-65 corridor Wednesday morning remaining in the weakened state.  Then, Wednesday afternoon it is expected to re-intensify into another area of strong to severe storms as it moves east of the I-75 corridor.

Even though the severe threat looks quite low for the Louisville area, the two (or more) rain systems we expect could easily drop !” to 1.5″ of rain by midday Wednesday.

Stuff

Each panel of glass on the Grand Canyon Skywalk can safely hold 800 people even though the glass is only 2.5″ thick.