5 P.M.  Friday, Feb. 26, 2021

Two upper air disturbances will float over the Ohio Valley this weekend.  The weaker one we’re seeing now.  Mostly light showers will be scattered over the area this evening…ending after Midnight.  Tomorrow will be warmer with mostly cloudy skies pushing temperatures into the mid 60’s.  The second system will have more moisture and energy, heavier rains will be likely tomorrow night into Sunday morning.  Our area should expect over an inch of rain with warm temperatures tomorrow night.  Temperatures remain warm Sunday.

This time no major storm development is expected, so no major surge will move in as the rain stops, so temperatures should remain seasonably mild early next week.  The average high temperature in early March is in the lower 50’s.

I have seen the future…and it is here.  part 2

The recent ice storm disaster in Texas has been used as quite a political tool for various ideologies.  The right blames solar and wind power problems (partly correct).  The left blames fossil fuel problems (partly correct).  Many say the state-run power network was the cause (big contributor).  Still others blame climate change (probably not – ice storms in Texas have a long history).  Actually, many factors combined to make a situation far worse than it should have been.

Most at fault is the government of Texas.  To allow the statewide power grid to reach the ridiculous situation that exists there today is a wonderful example of political corruption based on money rather than the public good.  It’s a rag-rag operation of little operators with little coordination.  It’s like one of those dominoes creations where you tip over one domino and hundreds  (or thousands)  more also tip over.

In recent years, a push toward solar and wind power generation has been established.  Today that produces roughly 10-11% of Texas’s total power input.  Wind and solar are unreliable because sometimes the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine.  But losing just 10% of your power supply shouldn’t do much damage to the overall grid.  Most of the power comes from good old fashioned power plants using either coal, oil or natural gas.  Texas also produces some nuclear power.  In recent years, for environmental concerns, coal and oil plants have been phased out along with nuclear power.  The use of natural gas, the cleanest fossil fuel, has been growing rapidly.  Okay, most states are doing the same thing, so what went wrong?

In the push to increase natural gas usage and build wind and solar facilities, something has been either forgotten or neglected, or both.  Infrastructure!  No repairs. No updates.  No improvements to existing equipment.  The existing infrastructure has been falling apart.  In a crisis they can’t ask neighboring states to sell them some extra power (state law).  So, when a crisis hits -usually winter storms and summer heat waves – they are stuck.

The way things are going, the power situation in Texas will get far worse before it gets better.  The best thing they can do to clean up their power mess is to build nuclear power plants.

Texas is not alone in this rush to “clean energy.”  Many other states are losing their energy independence.  More on that on part 3.

Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021  4 P.M.

Weather patterns certainly have changed since last week.  Rather than ice, snow and 20’s we’ve jumped to mostly sunny and 50’s.  This trend is expected to persist for quite a while.  The circumpolar jet stream vortex that dipped south over Canada and central U.S. has retreated toward the pole and reformed westward.  The result has been a return to the “west coast trough, east coast ridge” pattern that has dominated most of our winter.

For the next few weeks (or longer), major storms will move into the western U.S. then move northeast into the central and eastern U.S.  That major storm track will bring plenty of rain to the central part of the country, including the Ohio Valley.  It also threatens to give an early (and widespread) start to the severe weather season.

I have seen the future…and it is here! (Part 1)

My apologies to whoever first uttered those words, but it seemed to fit.

The Texas ice storm has been quite a catastrophe.  The media seems so surprised by the ice storm – acting like it’s never happened before.  In fact, if anyone chose to check, a major ice storm hits Texas about once every eight years.  Ice storms are a known, expected, but rare, event.  The most recent serious ice storm was in 2011.  In fact, since 1973, six major ice storms have hit Texas.  After each one, committees were formed to make suggestions about how to better prepare for the next one.  After the first five storms, the recommendations were largely ignored.  Why? Cost.   (We’ll continue to hold together our deteriorating infrastructure with baling wire and duct tape and hope that it doesn’t happen again.)  But it always does.  I don’t imagine it’ll be any different this time.

We’ve heard many “reasons” for why the problems occurred.  Every “cause” has a different reason for the disaster.  Next time, we’ll take a look at the “blame game.”

Stuff

Recently in Washington state,  police arrested a man for carjacking. He had been released from prison just 20 minutes earlier.

Caution:  If you’re bad at haggling, you’ll end up paying the price.

Picture

Smoke billows from Mt. Etna near Giarre, Sicily. | (AP Photo/Salvatore Allegra)

From The Week

Friday, Feb. 19, 2021  4 P.M.

Warming

I have found it interesting over the years how February almost always has a period of a week to 10 days of very wintry weather.  Otherwise, it’s just the usual grey skies and gloomy scenery.  Well, we just experienced our “mini-winter” and now a warm up will have us thinking of an early spring for the rest of the month.

Tomorrow will have a cold start – about 13-15 degrees – then warm to the mid 30’s.  Then about 10 degrees warmer Sunday.  Then a few days in the 50’s (possibly 60’s) next week.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s storm dropped a sleet/snow accumulation of 4″ at the airport.  Then Wednesday night’s snowfall of 2.9″ pushed the accumulation up to 5″ at SDF.  NOTE:  Snowfall and snow accumulation are not the same. Tuesday night’s snowfall was listed as 5.5″ but the sleet/freezing rain knocked the accumulation down to 4″.  Due to some melting and settling,  the later snowfall “refreshed” the old snow/ice and boosted accumulation back up to 5″.

Snow gauge update

I’ve been showing pictures off my very optimistic snow gauge this week. You can go back to see them, if you wish.  The first showed just a trace of snow/ice before the expected snowstorm Monday night.  The second photo was from Tuesday morning.  It showed just under 3″.  You can see the 3″ marker line on the left side of the gauge.  Today’s photo is from yesterday morning.  About 5″ inches on the ground.

Sunday, January 10, 2021  12:30 P.M.

One of things I miss from the old days is the updated forecasts issued by the NWS around 11:30 A.M. and P.M.  Forecasts were not as accurate in those days, so the updates to the “prime” morning and evening forecasts were sometimes needed.

Somewhere along the line it was decided that the morning and evening forecasts were all that was needed.  Updates became hard to find.  Today’s forecast is a perfect example why that may not be such a good thing.

When I got up this morning, my radio told me “sunny skies today with a high near 40.”   But it wasn’t sunny, so I went to the NWS site to see what they were saying.  There I found a forecast for Jefferson County of “partly cloudy with a high in the upper 30’s.”  Ok, that was still in play.  Later, however, taking a little closer look at the actual weather data and satellite imagery, I noticed that the models predicted the sunnier part of the day to be during the morning with clouds increasing again during the afternoon.  A quick look at satellite views shows increasing clouds advancing eastward from western KY.

So, now the morning forecast no longer seems to be “in play.”  In the old days, the 11:30 A.M. update would (should?)  have put the forecast back on track.  But, at last glance, the incorrect forecast still stands.  Surely someone at the NWS would want to correct it (and drop the “high” to the mid 30’s).

Stuff

The music for the song, Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star, is the same tune that is used in the ABC song we use to teach children the A, B, C’s.

The composer of that music was Mozart!

9 P.M. Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2020

Mild weather continues a few more days

I don’t know how many times over the past six months, our forecast models have predicted a reversal in the upper air pattern over North America, but it’s been often.  Only once (November) did it actually happen.  Now, it’s seems like it will reverse for a second time, starting Sunday.

The shift to west coast ridge/east coast trough is underway.  The strong northwesterly winds aloft will definitely put us into below normal temperatures.  When pattern reversals occur, they generally persist at least 2-3 weeks.  But, this has been unusual winter, to say the least.  When the “cold phase” hit us in November, it lasted about 3 weeks before the “warm phase” took over.  And the warm phase has been around ever since.  Since November 25, we’ve only had six days with below normal temperatures.  For those keeping score, that’s 45 above normal days and only 6 below.

So, are we going to have a “3 week” winter, or will be longer?  Good question.  Answer unknown.

Old rule of thumb:  After 3 weeks, if the upper air winds over us are stronger than when the cold regime began,  it will persist another 3 weeks.  If the winds are weaker than originally, the warm regime will return quickly.

Rest of this week

Official forecast gives Louisville a chance for rain tomorrow.  I’m not buying that although some light rain will be possible over southern KY.

Another midwestern storm is likely late Friday, but it’ll be much weaker than last week’s storm.  We’ll probably see periods of rain from Friday into Saturday.

Then, winter arrives Sunday!  Next chance for snow comes from a weak clipper next Tuesday.