Nit Picking

Noon Oct.9,2019

Just checked the afternoon forecast from the NWS.  Cloudy with a high in the upper 70’s.

Here we are sitting under cloudy skies, light NE winds at about 60 degrees.  How are we going to get almost 20 degrees of warming over the next 4-5 hours?  We’re not.  Even if the clouds cleared immediately, we’d be hard pressed to get that warm.  In reality, clouds should begin to thin by 3-4 P.M.  Even with thinning clouds, we’ll be lucky to reach the low 70’s.  Around 70 seems more likely.

What’s up?  Isn’t anyone paying attention?

Stuff

A little perspective…

Slashing and burning of the Amazon has been going on for decades.  All of a sudden this year, it became the “climate destruction gang’s” next big thing on the climate agenda.  But why now?  The  average amount of deforestation over the past five years has been only about 50% of what was occurring 20 years ago.

Don’t get me wrong on this, Amazon deforestation is (and has been) a big climate problem.  But, programs have been ongoing for years to reduce the burning.  Success has been modest, but this certainly is not a new problem.

Sat.  Aug. 31, 2019  3:30 P.M.

Much better news for Florida!

Over my 50+ years of trying to into harmony with nature, I repeated countless times, “Don’t trust any forecast beyond two days.”  We still miss forecasts in days 1 and 2, but that forecast is usually pretty accurate.  But when you get beyond 2 days, things change.

Hurricane Dorian forecasts this week have been  a prime example.  Early this week Dorian was projected to hit somewhere along the Florida east coast.  Where?  We have many different models looking at the storm (you’ve probably seen the “Spaghetti Diagrams” on tv), but the  U.S. showcase is the GFS and the top model in the world is referred as the EURO.  Let’s just track those two.

Early in the week, the GFS landfall was predicted to be along the FL/GA border.  The euro focused on southern FL.  Over the next day or two, the GFS gradually worked its landfall southward to close to the euro position.  Yesterday, the GFS still predicted a hit north of Miami then at least a two day journey northward over Florida.  That matches the horrific damage projection I mentioned Thursday.

But, yesterday’s morning euro changed!  It no longer predicted Dorian to hit Florida.  Instead, it would get within a 100 miles or so, then turn slowly northward along the coast and probably not hit land until about North Carolina.  That’s VERY important!  As far a potential damage goes, there’s a huge difference between a hit and a near miss.  Meanwhile, the GFS maintained it’s devastating forecast.

This morning, the GFS caught up to the euro  with the “close miss” scenario, but was still putting landfall along the area along the North/South Carolina border.  Today’s euro, however, has shifted the storm track farther east, possibly even missing the Outer Banks.

So, what’s going to happen?

Good question.  We’re still more than two days away from U.S. coastal interaction and “trends” sometimes do reverse.   So, no one from Florida to North Carolina is completely out of danger yet.   But, current trends are indicating a much better situation, especially for Florida.  As it stands now, Florida’s biggest threat will come from beach erosion.   But remember, things change!

GFS vs. euro

Remember earlier this summer when the National Weather Service made a big fuss over it’s introduction of its “new and better” GFS version?  The model was designed to oust the euro as world’s best.  Dorian has been the first big test for the new GFS.  So far, so bad.  But, things change.  Let’s see how it plays out.

Stuff

The director of the Internal Revenue Service during the mid 1940’s later went to jail for failing to pay his income taxes.

Tuesday, July 16, 2019  4 P.M.

Barry provides a wet night

Remember all the frightful forecasts about the flooding rains Barry would cause last weekend over Louisiana and surrounding states?  Well, the storm did produce the normal heavy rains that a tropical storm does, but the big weather story for the past couple of days has been Barry’s “underperformance.”  A huge part of the damage and destruction predicted never happened.  That’s the good news.  Here’s the bad news:  All the familiar meteorologists’s phrases popped up – “We dodged the bullet”, “We got lucky”, and “The storm underperformed”.  Ah!  The world we live in.  All the reasons given imply that the forecast was correct.  Thus, it was nature that blew it!

Note to fellow forecasters:  Nature does NOT make mistakes, but we do.  Isn’t it about time that forecasters actually own up to their mistakes and just admit them rather than trying to push the blame to “the weather”?

Barry’s moisture finally reaches us.

Barry’s remnants are being picked up by a weak upper air system over the midwest that will push eastward tonight and cross the lower Ohio Valley by midday tomorrow.  Ahead of this system we’ll see periods of rain and a few thunderstorms tonight.  There could be a few lingering light showers tomorrow, but the bulk of the rain will be overnight.  Current model trends are for the heaviest rains to occur over the western third of KY and over the eastern third of KY later tonight and tomorrow.  Both of those areas could see 1″-2″ rain totals with perhaps higher totals in the mountains.  Most of southern IN and central KY should receive up to an inch of rain with a few areas higher if thunderstorms develop.

Break in the heat coming?

For at least a month, the GFS model has been predicting a change in the upper air pattern over North America.  The forecast has always been for the shift/change to occur 10 days to two weeks ahead.  But “next week’s cooling” has never shown up…yet.

Late last week the forecast was for a transition to the cooler pattern to happen Sun/Mon (July 21-2).  Now we’re less than a week away and the forecast hasn’t changed.  Could it be “real” this time?  It sure looks like it.  So, a more comfortable weather pattern should set if next week.

Then, the question becomes whether the cooler pattern will persist for several weeks or just be  a minor “blip” in the summer heat.  Longer range models keep the cooler pattern in place for most of August.  We’ll just have to wait and see.

Stuff:

There’s been a lot of news and celebration this week concerning the 50th anniversary of the Apollo II moon landing.  Here’s a tidbit I read this week…

The Apollo II computer system required about 145,000 lines of code.   (Today, Facebook runs about 62 million code lines while Google uses more than 2 billion lines!)

Thursday, Feb. 14, 2019  4:30 P.M.

Snow possible tomorrow night!

Happy Valentines Day!

First of all – tonight.  A weak cold front will cross the area.  It has little upper air support and slim moisture available.  Nevertheless, it could squeeze out a few, brief light showers tonight.  Only about a 30% chance for a measurable amount.  Temperatures tomorrow should stay near 40 during the day.

Snow situation

The northwest U.S. is being pounded by yet another winter storm.  A small piece of upper air energy is breaking away from the parent system and will move eastward across the country over the next two days.  Both the GFS and NAM portray this system a little stronger than yesterday.  They still differ on the storm path and consequences for us.

The GFS is gung ho on snow for us as the surface system slides south of us tomorrow night.  GFS snow totals are around 2″ for Louisville area with heavier totals (up to 4″) over  SW Indiana and western Kentucky.  Snow forecast is even higher along a path from near Evansville to south of St. Louis to Kansas City.

Then, there is the NAM.  Like yesterday, it isn’t taking the snow very seriously for the Louisville area.  It projects the storm track to be a little farther south.  That puts us on the northern edge of the snow threat.  Southern KY will see a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain creating major road problems tomorrow night and early Saturday.  It also has the heavy snow from far western KY back into Missouri.

So, which model is correct?

Good question.  Can you wait until Sunday morning for the answer?  Of course not!  We want to know beforehand.  So, I’ll give you my thoughts on the situation.

In general, most of the forecasting fraternity will go with the GFS.  Over the long haul, it seems to be the better of the two.  But, this winter the GFS has had snow lovers salivating over two big snow forecasts.  Both times local media and National Weather Service followed the GFS and went into hype mode only to have both forecasts fail.  Overall, the GFS has been in a slump but the NWS is going along with its 2″ forecast for tomorrow night.

But, what about the NAM?  It’s a good model, too.  But the wide differences between the two models for this forecast must mean something.  If tomorrow night’s weather solution were “settled science”, the two models would be very close.  The fact that they are not close tells us there is something about this atmospheric setup that they can’t quite resolve.  In essence, neither model can be ignored.

So, here’s my best shot.  I’m leaning toward the NAM ideas having the surface storm taking a more southerly track.  That means less snow for the Louisville area.  I’m expecting less than one inch for Louisville metro.  Snow totals will increase south of the city and could get an inch or two down to the E’town area.  South of the parkway they’ll see the wintry mix described above.

West of Louisville snow accumulate along and south of I-64.  The farther west in IN/KY, the more snow – as high as 4″ near Evansville.  North of Louisville, little or no snow will fall.

Again,  I believe the Louisville area will be on the northern edge of the snow system.  I expect less than 1″…probably closer to the lower end of the range.

Valentines Day

For hundreds of years BCE (B.C.), the Romans celebrated a Spring ritual known as Lupercalia.  It was a fertility rite to welcome back the growing season, among other things.  It was celebrated around February 14th.  About 500 CE (A.D.) the Catholic Church  decided that Lupercalia was a little too bawdy  for its flock, so it was banned.  It was replaced by a new Church holiday they named Valentines Day in honor of an Italian saint who had been decapitated (by the Romans).