Sat. Aug. 31, 2019 3:30 P.M.
Much better news for Florida!
Over my 50+ years of trying to into harmony with nature, I repeated countless times, “Don’t trust any forecast beyond two days.” We still miss forecasts in days 1 and 2, but that forecast is usually pretty accurate. But when you get beyond 2 days, things change.
Hurricane Dorian forecasts this week have been a prime example. Early this week Dorian was projected to hit somewhere along the Florida east coast. Where? We have many different models looking at the storm (you’ve probably seen the “Spaghetti Diagrams” on tv), but the U.S. showcase is the GFS and the top model in the world is referred as the EURO. Let’s just track those two.
Early in the week, the GFS landfall was predicted to be along the FL/GA border. The euro focused on southern FL. Over the next day or two, the GFS gradually worked its landfall southward to close to the euro position. Yesterday, the GFS still predicted a hit north of Miami then at least a two day journey northward over Florida. That matches the horrific damage projection I mentioned Thursday.
But, yesterday’s morning euro changed! It no longer predicted Dorian to hit Florida. Instead, it would get within a 100 miles or so, then turn slowly northward along the coast and probably not hit land until about North Carolina. That’s VERY important! As far a potential damage goes, there’s a huge difference between a hit and a near miss. Meanwhile, the GFS maintained it’s devastating forecast.
This morning, the GFS caught up to the euro with the “close miss” scenario, but was still putting landfall along the area along the North/South Carolina border. Today’s euro, however, has shifted the storm track farther east, possibly even missing the Outer Banks.
So, what’s going to happen?
Good question. We’re still more than two days away from U.S. coastal interaction and “trends” sometimes do reverse. So, no one from Florida to North Carolina is completely out of danger yet. But, current trends are indicating a much better situation, especially for Florida. As it stands now, Florida’s biggest threat will come from beach erosion. But remember, things change!
GFS vs. euro
Remember earlier this summer when the National Weather Service made a big fuss over it’s introduction of its “new and better” GFS version? The model was designed to oust the euro as world’s best. Dorian has been the first big test for the new GFS. So far, so bad. But, things change. Let’s see how it plays out.
The director of the Internal Revenue Service during the mid 1940’s later went to jail for failing to pay his income taxes.