Friday Sept. 9, 2016 4 P.M.
Back in August I wrote about an unusually bad string of forecasts the Louisville area has been subjected to this summer. That week was the worst forecast performance (for a prolonged period) that I can remember. Individual forecasts, yes, but not such a long string of them. Well, it has started again.
We did have some isolated showers overnight and a good soaking rain south of Louisville this morning, so far three straight “high probability” showers and thunderstorm forecasts have come up largely dry for Louisville area. That includes the current time forecasts for Thursday, Thursday night and today. And, the current forecast for tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow looks to be just as bad (or worse.)
Without getting into specific details, let’s just say that if the most recent models are anywhere near correct, the current “official” forecast isn’t going to be.
Tonight, we’ll see a dying line of rain/storms approach us after midnight. Like last night they don’t look like they’ll bring any widespread rains.
Tomorrow’s forecast for numerous showers and thunderstorms (60% chance) actually boils down to the possibility of a line of thunderstorms forming over us in the early afternoon… an hour of rain at most. Both the NAM and GFS are tending have the formation either over us or to our east, so it would no be too surprising of they missed us entirely. The NAM (and me) are leaning that way.
Then, the 50% chance for showers/thunderstorms tomorrow night is just plain “Crazy Talk.”