Confusing forecast tonight

Tuesday, July 16, 2024 5:00 P.M.

1). Models beginning to downplay rainfall expections while National Weather Service issues Flood Watch.

2). Thunderstorms possibly forming along and/or south of the Ohio River tomorrow afternoon.

As mentioned above, forecast models have basically cut in half the previously predicted heavy overnight rain. Most models now keep total rainfall less than one inch overnight. Current timing hints at 2 A.M. to 10 A.M. as the most likely hours.

As the overnight/morning rainfall moves away, we should have several hours without rainfall. But the cold front causing this episode will lag behind the morning rain.

Then, the front, given a few hours to allow daytime heating, will develop a new line of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Starting about 2-3 P.M. the new line is expected to pop up near the Ohio River and then move rapidly southeast later in the afternoon.

Stuff

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