Sunday, July 21, 2024 4 P.M.

After a couple of big misses last week, the NWS is back with another strange (to me) forecast. A weak upper level pattern will change little over the Ohio Valley for the next few days. This will send a few more (today’s clouds) small upper air disturbances our way through Tuesday, at least.

As our atmosphere slowly moistens, rain chances will be increasing through Tuesday. Both the GFS and NAM models show the most likely time for rain will be Tuesday (afternoon). I agree.

The NWS forecast as of 3:50 P.M. has these rain chances: tonight 30%, tomorrow 50%, tomorrow night 50% and Tuesday 30%.

I’d suggest something like 20% tonight, 30% tomorrow and tomorrow night, then about 60-70% Tuesday.

We’ll see how it works out.

Note: very old forecast rule…The last wave on the train is always the strongest.