Rain/storm chances dropping (quickly)

Saturday Morning

A quick look at the morning model runs continues the trends noted yesterday.  The HIRES NAM model doesn’t even produce ANY rain for the Louisville area – keeping the heavy rain/storm threat from northern IN to SW Ohio, eastern KY (east of I-75) and West Virginia.

The NAM continues yesterday’s trend, but in a much weaker fashion.  It now pushes a line of showers/t-storms through the region after midnight with the majority of rain (on the light side) ending before Noon.

The GFS as usual is the slowest.  It is also a weakened version of yesterday.  It holds off the rain/storm cluster until well after Midnight with all rain wrapping up shortly after Noon. Again the rain totals predicted are much lower than yesterday’s prediction.

So, here’s my latest forecast:

Afternoon:  partly cloudy, hot and humid…high 90ish (a highly technical term

Tonight:  20% chance for thunderstorms until midnight.  After Midnight, showers and thunderstorms are likely.  Gusty winds possible.  Rain chance 60%.  Low…72.

Tomorrow:  Showers end during the morning, then sunny and breezy in the afternoon…high…87.

Severe Storm Threat

Most, if not all, of the severe weather will occur over eastern Indiana and SW Ohio (and southeast from there).  An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible,  but not likely, within 35 miles of Louisville.

There is also talk of a second chance for severe storms tomorrow afternoon or evening.  To me, this seems like someone’s idea of a bad joke.

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