Friday, Feb. 5, 2021  4:30 P.M.

Models keep delaying arrival date

Early this week the forecast high for Super Bowl Sunday (Feb. 7) for Louisville was 20 degrees.  Now the forecast is 32 deg. Yes, that’s cold.  But around here a high of 20 is quite a different situation.  So, what’s going on?

What’s going on is a common habit of the GFS model.  It (often) foresees a major pattern change or shift, but predicts it to happen too soon.  Such is the case this time.  Originally, the GFS brought the bitter cold air into the Ohio Valley tomorrow.  By midweek, the big arrival was pushed back until next Wed/Thu with only a small chunk of the colder air arriving Sunday.

Current thought is that another small surge of wintry air arrives about Tue/Wed.  Finally, the much anticipated “coldest air of the winter” makes it’s appearance Fri/Sat.

With the “Big Chill” still a week or so away,  the smaller air masses will still keep us in below normal temperatures next week.  Daytime highs will run from the upper 20’s to the 30’s.  Several weak upper air systems will probably bring some more small snows during that time.  The first chance will be tomorrow night into early Sunday.  Then, very light snow/flurries should be an almost daily occurrence next week.  Best chance for meaningful snowfall will be with the really cold air arrival late next week.