6 P.M. Sat., Feb 13, 2021

Models in closer agreement

Another day without sunshine and we probably won’t have much, if any, tomorrow.  Temperatures will probably remain in the 20’s all day.  But after that, snow enters the picture.  A  strong upper air system over the southwest today will cross the Rockies tonight and become better organized south of the Texas coast by late tomorrow.  Then it heads northeastward.  What the final path will be is still uncertain, but we should have a better idea tomorrow.

Currently, the GFS predicts a 4″-6″ snowfall for our area – higher over eastern KY.  The NAM has a 6″-8″ prediction.  Snowfall should begin before the Monday morning rush hour and continue through the day.  There is disagreement about when the snowfall ends.  Estimates run from Monday evening to Tuesday morning.  The longer duration of snowfall most likely would produce an even higher snow total.

The second storm expected next week has undergone more model changes.  Best guess now favors a freezing rain to rain scenario on Thursday.

Some doubt

Although at least some snowfall is likely Monday, the amounts are uncertain.  While most of the U.S. models are big on snow, the Euro, Canadian and Navy models carry everything farther east.  As a result, our snowfall totals would be much lower.

For now, I’ll go with a forecast somewhere between the two major themes  Let’s say something like 2″ – 4″ for the Louisville area.  Either way, higher snow totals east of Louisville, especially east of I-75.

I’m hopeful I’ll have a better handle on this tomorrow.