Friday afternoon

It’s been quite a story this week – the upcoming snow for Sunday!  All kinds of guesses on local media blogs.  Lots of snow lovers getting excited.  The forecast models are good, but, as I’ve said too many times to count, never trust them beyond a couple of days.  Failure to heed such advice has led to some really wild and crazy things being said about our weather.  But, here it is Friday and the weather picture is taking on a familiar pattern and the news is not good for the snow birds.

Yesterday, the NAM and GFS started coming together on the idea that the primary storm system would be coming right over the lower Ohio Valley.  That should have been a BIG hint that this was going to be mostly rain.  However, the snow birds kept chirping.

The trends established yesterday grew even stronger today lending growing evidence to the rain scenario.  I wouldn’t go so far as to say something stupid like “The science is settled”(one of my favorite idiotic quotes), but it is looking pretty strong.  You can never be totally certain 36-48 hours ahead – things are always changing.

So, with that said, here is my idea as to our weather will unfold this weekend:  Tomorrow will start cold (low 20’s) and sunny with temperatures rising pretty quickly during   the morning and early afternoon.  By then clouds will be on the increase for the rest of the afternoon.  High should be in the lower 40’s.  First divergence point for the models comes Saturday night.  The GFS starts precipitation (as snow) after midnight while the NAM holds any precipitation off until Sunday morning as rain.  The history of the GFS shows that it almost always “warms” systems the closer they come.  So, that situation, if it continues, sets the stage for a rainy Sunday, with the heaviest rain likely between late morning until late afternoon.  An early start to the precipitation could lead to a little wet snow, but temperatures should be above freezing, so little, if any, accumulation.  Chance for morning snow is less than 20%.

If this system brings us any snow it will be Sunday night.  As the storm system pulls out to our eastnortheast, we’ll see a sharp drop in temperatures around 10 P.M. or later Sunday.  It’ll be possible to see some light snow and/or flurries as the cold air pours in.  But, if we see any accumulation, it’ll be small.  Probably in the lower half of the 0 to 1″ range.