Temperature/Wind Chill apparently baffle NWS again

Sunday Evening

A post last week discussed the poor forecasting (and thus the badly misleading wind chill information) of overnight lows for Louisville last week.  Well, they are at it again tonight.

1).    Wind Chill Advisory from Midnight until 9 A.M. Mon A.M.  Okay, that’s the headline.  For Louisville, the Wind Chill Criteria for an advisory is -10 deg. to -25.

2),  The NWS forecast for Jefferson County is for a low of 8 degrees and a wind chill of +1 to -9.  The forecast doesn’t agree with the headline (Wind Chill Advisory)

3).  Once again, the NWS  forecast low (8) is far below available guidance.  Latest I’ve seen say either 13 or 14 degrees).  Even though the winds will be northerly (bringing us colder air), the models all expect a large amount of cloudiness to linger most of the night, reducing radiational loss.  Thus, to me the guidance looks to be much better.  I’ll give it a low of 12 by 8 A.M. tomorrow.  Assuming the warmer temperatures, wind chills will be even farther away from advisory “criteria.”

Week ahead

Weather remains very cold, but calmer conditions should return for most of the week.  The next two “major” storms should move across the Gulf Coastal states this week.  That’ll keep the big problems south of us.  A couple of northern stream disturbances will cross over us.  One tonight and the second late Tuesday.  Each one will serve to reinforce the cold weather, but will have only enough moisture to perhaps produce some snow flurries.

The third major storm to push out of the southwest this week should come in two sections.  The first (Friday) could bring a little snow but the major energy with the system should arrive Sat. night/Sunday.  Too early to tell whether it’ll bring rain or snow OR the whole mixed bag like this weekend.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *