Sunday,  Jan. 17, 2016

A few flurries arriving this afternoon along with another shot of Arctic air will set the stage for what could turn out to be a snowy week.  The first good chance will arrive Wednesday while the second seems to be on tap for Friday.  The current GFS model looks pretty impressive, but I’m always forced to use the disclaimer – A lot can change in a few days.  But, it’s always fun to speculate.  So here goes…

A weak to moderate disturbance will drift into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday.  It’ll be overriding the cold air mass arriving today, so surface moisture will be very limited.  Nevertheless, the GFS is trying very hard to generate its own moisture and is showing the potential for 2″-3″ of snow.  The NAM is much weaker with this system, but still shows the potential for an inch (possibly as much as two) of snow.

Friday’s system, at this point, looks to be stronger and have more moisture available.  Thus, the snow-making potential could support 4″ + accumulations.  But, there will be some hurdles to jump over before a deep snow can occur.  What happens Wednesday will go a long way toward determining what’s going to happen Friday.  If Wednesday’s system is as strong as the GFS suggests, it’ll drag in another surge of cold air and help support a larger snow on Friday.  The weaker NAM solution plays toward a rain/snow mix early Friday, then snow later.  Either way, it looks as though Friday’s system will be warmer, so it shouldn’t be as bad on the roads.

Of course, potential doesn’t often equal reality.  But, it looks pretty good at this time.  Check back for updates as the events draw closer.