Forecast models in conflict again

Wednesday, July 13, 2016  11 A.M.

Once again, the short term models are at odds with the primary models.  Everyone agrees that it’ll be hot and humid today, but the chances for thunderstorms vary considerably.

First, the big models…the NAM doesn’t produce any  chance for t-storms anywhere over KY or southern IN.  The GFS hints at a small chance especially north of the Ohio River, but it’s numerical statistical output is less than 10% for this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the short-term regional models are much more enthusiastic with t-storm development.  The RAP predicts a large cluster of storms over our area late this afternoon.  The HRRR is even more aggressive with an afternoon and an evening storm cluster moving over us.

The Weather Service is sticking with the NAM/GFS, but with a slight nod toward the short term models.  They give us a 20% rain chance today and tonight.

But, the RAP/HRRR were developed for situations such as this.  They are designed to do the fine-tuning between the gaps in the larger models.  And, last week in a similar situation, they did a great job.  I expect the RAP/HRRR to continue doing their jobs well.  So, I’d expect a much higher chance we’ll see t-storms later today…60% chance or higher.

We’ll see how this battle works out in a few hours.


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