Monday. Feb. 6, 2017
Yes, it appears that thunder and lightning will be visiting our area during the late night hours tonight. Also, the Severe Storms Center has us in a “slight” risk area for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. However no severe storms are expected with tonight’s rain/thunder/lightning.
The situation looks like this: a weak upper air disturbance will float slowly over the Ohio Valley between (roughly) Midnight and Noon tomorrow. This system is starting to pick up some Gulf moisture and rain/thunderstorms are popping up over northern TX, AR, west TN and southern KY. Rain should become widespread over our area after Midnight and finally end around midday. Thunderstorms will be embedded in the rain shield with the best chance for thunder here about 5 A.M. to 10 A.M. Overnight instability will be low and the upper air dynamics, while good for an April/May severe weather situation, are actually pretty low for a winter system. As a result, I don’t expect any severe storms overnight or tomorrow morning. The dynamics aloft will have a hard time overcoming the lower level thermodynamics.
Then, atmospheric conditions change tomorrow afternoon/evening. The morning system will drag most of the deep layer of moisture northeast of us. But, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest. The dynamics with this coupled surface/upper air system are expected to be much stronger than the overnight system. However, most of the moisture will have disappeared. So, the chances for thunderstorms to form along this front are quite small – about 10-20%. But, if thunderstorms do manage to form, strong gusty winds and hail will be likely. So, severe storms are possible late tomorrow afternoon , but the chances we’ll have any in the area are less than 10%. Not much to worry about. (But a few flurries will be possible early Wednesday.)
February
A couple of weeks ago, a major change in the upper air pattern looked like a good possibility for North America for this month. The models were leaning toward temperatures being below normal for much of this month. That trend lasted several days, but since then has shifted back to the primary pattern it has shown much of the winter – cold and wet over the western states and warm and wet over the east. It looks well locked in, so not much hope for snow lovers. Bad winter in that regard.
Super Bowl
It was amazing to watch New England turn the tide and rally last night. You’ve got to give Tom Brady and the Pats credit for putting themselves to win the game, but to my mind, they NEVER should have won the game. Atlanta just outright “gave” the game away. With time running out, Atlanta had a second down with the ball in easy field goal range AND an 8 point lead. Keep the ball where it was. Run down the clock with a couple of runs – kick the field goal – game over – Super Bowl winners! But, wait! Somebody (I assume it was the offensive coordinator) calls a pass play that requires a deep dropback by the quarterback. Play starts, qb drops back and gets sacked. 13 yards lost – no longer in field goal range – Patriots get the ball back with a chance to tie the game. And, they did – then made it look easy in overtime.
Whoever called that play must have thought he’d catch New England off guard. Seattle thought the same thing two years ago. Look where it got them.
Stuff
The popcorn you buy at a movie theater costs more per pound than a filet mignon.