Monday, Sept 11, 2017

Irma continues to fade

Damage estimates far below early expectations

Irma’s winds keep getting weaker and weaker, but she still has plenty of water as northern Georgia is now finding out.  Heavy rains will be hard to transport westward over the Appalachians but Irma is going to try tonight and tomorrow.  Heaviest rains (2″-4″) should fall over eastern TN with lighter amounts working into Kentucky.  Some showers could reach as far north as the Ohio River toward morning.  Then, we’ll continue to see a few periods of rain around the Louisville area through Wednesday, at least.  An inch of rain is possible.

One forecaster who specializes in storm damage estimates yesterday predicted around $200 billion in insured damages from Irma.   By this morning, his forecast had dropped to $50 billion.  Other predictions were lower to start, but were down to $20 to $40 billion.  Still massive totals, but far less than authorities had led us believe.  What’s that old comment?  Question authority.

Hurricane Jose is still a potential problem.  Jose has been weakening and wandering aimlessly over the Atlantic for the past few days.  Today’s GFS model keeps Jose wandering for another day or two.  Then, the GFS pushes him westward for a few days then northwestward.  He should also be strengthening, but probably not to “major” hurricane.  Eventually, according to the GFS, Jose ends up in the vicinity of the Outer Banks by about next Tue/Wed and into New England a day or two later.

So, we may not see an end to Jose’s story until late next week.