Wed. Feb. 19, 2025 5 P.M.
Even colder air is moving over us setting up a very cold Thursday, but we will see easing temperatures as soon as Friday. A small upper level disturbance is escorting the cold air and could squeeze out a few snow showers between 10 P.M. and 2 A.M. Little, if any, accumulation is expected. Morning wind chills are expected to be near zero.
Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025 4: 30 P.M.
Once again a snow system approaching us garnered a Winter Storm Warning even though the forecast doesn’t add up to the criteria.
A “Winter Storm” is supposed to have at least 4″ inches of snow and create significant road problems. So why does their Louisville forecast predict 1″-3″ of snow and minor road problems? Beats me!
Anyway, as we’ve been following this system for the past several days, some small changes with the forecast have been noticeable. Yesterday, the shift southward with the max snow axis (from right over Louisville to about 50 miles south of town. Today, a new wrinkle has popped up – forecasts for snow amounts have edged lower.
The usual snow to water ratio is 10 to 1. A little lower for wet snow and higher for dry snow. For example, this morning’s fluffy dry snow was about one inch while the liquid equivalent was only .01″. An amazing ratio of 100 to one! It’s not unusual for a dry snow ratio to reach 20 to one, or even 30 to one. But, 100 to one is amazing!
I say that because tonight’s snow will be dry and fluffy, so the water equivalent will again be low, but the cold, dry air means snowfall amounts could jump quickly upward.
Taking those things into consideration, my current thoughts are …
Clouds return soon followed by light snow beginning by 9-11 P.M. Snow should taper off by 7-8 A.M. tomorrow. Based on a snow ratio of 20 to 30, I expect snow accumulations of 2″ to 4″ for the Metro area. The lower end of that range should be north of I-64 with amounts slowly increasing south of the Interstate. With the low water content, the roads should improve quickly during the day. Then, some really cold air for a couple of days.
Stuff
Is the National Weather Service REALLY on “Elon and his Muskies” hit list?
Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 12:30 P.M.
The news this morning is not good for snow lovers. Both the GFS and NAM have reduced their snow forecasts for the region. It turns out that the cold air mass moving in is colder and deeper than the models had been projecting. The result of that is the new storm coming out the west will have to take a more southerly track to get around the cold air mass.
Thus, the predicted position of the swath of heaviest snow now looks like it’ll over central and southern KY. That also tends to reduce the amount of moisture which travels this far north.
So, here’s my latest. Snow will move into the area tomorrow evening and depart from our area before Noon Wednesday. Snow accumulation in the Louisville should be about 2″-4″. Snow totals drop of quickly north of the Ohio while higher amounts occur along and south of the Bluegrass Parkway.
Sunday, Feb.16, 2025 4:30 P.M.
As expected, the major flood-producing storm left some snow behind when it moved east. But this was just a teaser. Tuesday night/Wednesday will be the real deal.
We’ve been watching for several days the next storm, now moving into the intermountain west, as a possible snow-maker for us beginning Tuesday night. Model run after model run, the chance for snow and the amount of snow have been slowly inching upward. Currently, I’m estimating a 4″ to 6″ snow accumulation. It’s still two days out, so things could change. This storm won’t be like the one in January. It’s colder this time, so no sleet and rain will mess things up. Just pure fluffy, dry snow!
Stuff
The Academy Awards are coming soon, so I thought I’d give you notice of a record that will NOT be broken this year – longest picture to ever win the Best Film Award. The record is 3 hours 54 minutes! The title holder is ………. Gone With The Wind.
Saturday, Feb.15,2025 5 P.M.
Some small changes in forecast models have lead to some tweaks to my forecast since yesterday. Changes to tonight’s rain forecast have lowered the expected rainfall for us along the Ohio River. Nevertheless, Flood Warnings and Watches still cover Kentucky as a high probability for flooding will continue overnight. The highest rainfall amounts, 4″ – 5″, are likely south of Louisville – roughly 30 miles either side of a line from Fort Campbell to Lexington. Be especially watchful for flooding in that area overnight.
Louisville area is likely to see about 2″-3″ of rainfall – mostly between now and Midnight. Given our already saturated soil, we’ll see plenty of flooded areas as well, just not as bad as southern KY.
Another update to this storm concerns the arrival of colder air tomorrow morning. It nows looks as though we’ll see a minor snow accumulation tomorrow morning. Current indications are for less than an inch accumulation, mostly on grassy areas. Little, if any, on roadways.
The other system we talked about yesterday was about a possible snow-maker Tuesday night. Since then, the GFS model has been slowly increasing the snow potential with this system. There’s still plenty of time for additional changes, but for now, the snow forecast stands at about 3″ – 5″ for the Louisville area!
Stuff
Pres. Trump declares “I am a women. And so are you.” Not exactly in those words, but that was one his early “orders”. (I warned you this regime would be quite funny.)
In his declaration that there are only two sexes – male and female – he specifically mentioned that “male” or “female” would be determined at “conception”. However, the NIH says that at conception, we ALL have female genitalia. After about 6-7 weeks male genitalia appears. So, at conception all humans are female!
Thus, according to his own proclamation, Donald Trump is our FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT. Sorry Hilary and Kamala, he beat you to it.
Note: I know the edict has been stayed by a judge. I don’t know the current status. I’m not at all surprised that the Pres would order that edict be put in place. That’s just the way he operates. I am, however, amazed that not one of his many MAGATS bowing to his every word even bothered to look it up!
+Friday, Feb. 14, 2025 6 P.M
Major storm over the western U.S. will drop southeast, then head northeast once it crosses the Rockies. This storm will bring very heavy rain to much of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tomorrow and tomorrow night into early Sunday. Models are now projecting about 4″ of rain along the Ohio River with as much as 6+”over central and southeast KY.
Widespread flash and general river flooding is expected over most of KY. If you live in flood-prone areas and many non-flood prone areas, take precautions/ Be especially careful for flooded roads.
We could see some flurries Sunday as cold air arrives as the rain departs and much colder air arrives.
Snow
Another weaker system, similar to the one early this week will cross the region Tuesday. The difference this time is colder air. Rather than wet snow, we’ll see a fluffy dry snow – much better for accumulations. It’s still a long way off, but looks like 2″-3″ could happen.
Think snow!
Monday, Feb. 10, 2025 6:30 P.M.
Well, what do we have here? Latest National Weather Service briefing on tomorrow’s weather has got everything covered.
1). Winter Storm Warning for our Kentucky area plus Harrison and Floyd Counties in southern Indiana. This “warning” contains wording for 4″ or more of snow and serious travel problems.
2)). Their actual snow forecast for Loiuisville, however, is 2″-3″.
3). Their graphic shows pretty much all of our area with “minor travel problems.” Only areas of hazardous driving are from Frankfort/Lexington and east.
4). So, if we go by their graphics and forecast, we should be under a Winter Weather Advisory. But for some reason they went with a big upgrade to Winter Storm WARNING. Go figure!
Let’s try to make a little sense out of this…
A relatively weak upper disturbance will glide over us tomorrow, its primary focus (rain) over Tennessee. We’ll be on the northern edge of the system with temperatures just cold enough for snow. It’ll be a very wet, sloppy snow with accumulations locally of 1″ mostly north of the city reaching up to 3″ south of the Metro. Little accumulations on roadways, only minor problems. My best guess for Louisville is 1″-2′ .
Sunday, Feb.9, 2025 11:30 P.M.
Just enough cold air has arrived to set the stage for a rather weak upper air system to give us a good chance for snow Tuesday. At this time it looks like a very sloppy wet snow starting around daybreak Tuesday. Temperature is expected to remain above 32 throughout the snow event. So, traffic problems should be minor with about a 1″-2″ snow accumulation on grassy areas, but not much on roads.
Heavier snow is likely south of Louisville with 2″-4″ possible from E-town to Lexington.
Congrats to the Eagles!
Friday, January 24, 2025 5:30 P.M.
A lull in Polar Jet Stream activity over the U.S. will give us a nice break. Temperatures should jump to “above normal” levels by early next week. That should finally get rid of the remaining snow/ice.
It’ll be nice to see what happens when the jet becomes more active again. Sometimes it reforms its previous pattern, which would rebuild the cold regime. Other times, however, it goes back to its early winter pattern. That would essentially bring us an early spring. Currently, the odds favor the return to above normal temperatures and precipitation.
Stuff: Money woes: in today’s world, it costs the U.S. Mint 3 cents to make a penny. A nickel costs 14 cents to produce. (With economics like this, it’s easy to see why our government is so much in debt.)
Stuff 2: About a century ago, American humorist Will Rogers was asked how he kept coming up with new material. Easy, he replied. I just have to read the newspapers every day to find out what’s going on in Washington.
That’s as true now as it was 100 years ago! Unfortunately, the Biden Administration wasn’t good at producing much entertainment. But the tRump gang is a riot of enjoyment. Just an example – the U.S. Presidency has made a total reversal. Our first president was famous for “I can not tell a lie”. Our current president is famous because he can not tell the truth!
The next four years are going to be the “Golden Age” for political humor.
Sunday, January 19, 2025 11 A.M.
Yesterday, I was quite surprised when the NWS predicted 2″ of snow for the Louisville area. There just disn’t seem to be enough moisture/energy to get nearly that much snow here. Since then, the models have dropped any snow estimates to near zero. But, the NWS increased their snow forecast to up to three inches! Not even close to expected reality.
Meanwhile, back in the real world. Louisville still has a chance for some light snow/flurries until early afternoon. Little, or no, accumulation expected.
In spite of the lack of snow, the very cold air will still take over through midweek. It’ll be pretty similar to the cold blast we had after the snow/ice storm a couple of weeks ago.