Thursday, Nov.21, 2024
Weather Service has upped their snow forecast tonight to 2″ That would be nice, but seems too high to me. Locally, we should get up to 1″ on grassy areas. No accumulation is likely on roadways thanks to temperatures staying above freezing.
Heavier snow totals up to 1″+ are likely northeast of our local area – places like Seymour, Madison, Frankfort and Lexington.
Monday, Nov. 4, 2024 6 P.M.
Years ago, Election Day weather played a more important part in the election outcome. Rain/snow/wind/cold often kept voters home, but today with all the various options to vote before the actual Election Day, weather has become far less significant.
Anyway, we will have no weather worries tomorrow. Another warm day with a high in the mid-to-upper 70’s is likely. Skies will begin the day partly cloudy with a gradual increase in clouds during the day. Rain is expected tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.
Some things are more important than the weather! (I can’t believe I just wrote that.)
One of those things is tomorrow’s election. On paper, it’s a slam dunk…one candidate/party is running on hate, lies, slander, revenge, racism, and ridicule of people they deem “beneath” them. Their ecomonic plans are absurd. Fear and hate is about all they have to offer.
The other candidate/party has plans to ease our housing problems, encourage home investment, help with childcare, increase taxes on the very wealthy, continue to work on infrastructure and strengthen our healthcare system. An upbeat message of improving our lives to help us flourish.
Yes, a clear choice. But, why are the polls so close?
Perhaps, we need to look inward. A quiet moment of solitude to get to our inner selves. Your “inner self” knows who deserves your vote.
About a century ago, newspaperman H. L. Mencken wrote ” Democracy is the pathetic notion of the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.”
Lets hope he is wrong tomorrow!
2 P.M. Friday, Sept 17, 2024 2 P.M.
It appears we’ve already experienced the worst of the rain (for sure) and winds (likely) during the past hour or two. Rain will be getting lighter in the next hour and diminishing by this evening. Winds will be slowly weakening this afternoon as what’s left of Helene nears. Area of 40+ mph wind gusts will slowly drift westward over southern IN and KY. However wind gusts over 30 mph will continue into the evening.
So far, the max wind gust here has been 41 mph at Standiford and 39 at Bowman. We may see a couple of low 40’s over the next hour, but, in general, the trend will be down.
Just an observation…The NWS had this situation nailed yesterday morning. Then they went crazy.
Thursday, Aug 1, 2024 2 P.M.
Set up is almost identical to yesterday. Plenty of instability; nice upper air support. And thunderstorms popping to our west. Yesterday produced a “cluster” of thunderstorms. Today looks to be linear. That means a larger area will experience strong to severe winds along with heavy rain.
I’d estimate line of storms to arrive in our area by 4:30 and exit eastward by 6:30 P.M.
Thursday, Aug 1, 2024 3:15 P.M.
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to move toward Louisville from western Indiana. The news is better for Louisville area as the northern half of the line has weakened a bit and is no longer producing severe storms. Still strong, though. Meanwhile the southern part of the line is still actively producing strong and severe winds.
The middle of the line is roughly I-64. The line appears to be moving just a little south of straight east. So, as it looks now the Louisville area and southern Indiana will see a strong line of thunderstorms arriving about 5 P.M. Heaviest storms look like they’ll stay just south of Louisville Metro – southern Breckinridge, Hardin, southern Bullitt and Nelson Counties.
Arrival in Louisville Metro – about 5 P.M. Departure by 7 P.M.
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 Noon
We have a very unstable air mass over the area, so we have lots of energy available for thunderstorms. This is not too unusual for mid summer. However, what is unusual is the upper air wind fields are quite a bit stronger than normal. This combination could lead to some very strong/severe thunderstorms later this afternoon.
Keep your eyes toward the northwest and pay attention to weather updates this afternoon. This could develop into a serious situation. Time estimate for Louisville is 3 -5 P.M.
Sunday, July 21, 2024 4 P.M.
After a couple of big misses last week, the NWS is back with another strange (to me) forecast. A weak upper level pattern will change little over the Ohio Valley for the next few days. This will send a few more (today’s clouds) small upper air disturbances our way through Tuesday, at least.
As our atmosphere slowly moistens, rain chances will be increasing through Tuesday. Both the GFS and NAM models show the most likely time for rain will be Tuesday (afternoon). I agree.
The NWS forecast as of 3:50 P.M. has these rain chances: tonight 30%, tomorrow 50%, tomorrow night 50% and Tuesday 30%.
I’d suggest something like 20% tonight, 30% tomorrow and tomorrow night, then about 60-70% Tuesday.
We’ll see how it works out.
Note: very old forecast rule…The last wave on the train is always the strongest.
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 5:00 P.M.
1). Models beginning to downplay rainfall expections while National Weather Service issues Flood Watch.
2). Thunderstorms possibly forming along and/or south of the Ohio River tomorrow afternoon.
As mentioned above, forecast models have basically cut in half the previously predicted heavy overnight rain. Most models now keep total rainfall less than one inch overnight. Current timing hints at 2 A.M. to 10 A.M. as the most likely hours.
As the overnight/morning rainfall moves away, we should have several hours without rainfall. But the cold front causing this episode will lag behind the morning rain.
Then, the front, given a few hours to allow daytime heating, will develop a new line of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Starting about 2-3 P.M. the new line is expected to pop up near the Ohio River and then move rapidly southeast later in the afternoon.
Stuff
When Abraham Lincoln was elected President in 1860, he did not vote for himself. Reason: he wanted to remain “impartial” to let the public decide.
Tuesday, June 25, 2024 5:15 PM
A line of strong thunderstorms is moving rapidly southeast from IN toward KY. The storms should cross the Ohio River around 6 P.M. However, an outflow boundary from this system will arrive 20-30 minutes before the storms. This boundary will reduce temperatures and dew points before the line of storms arrives. Thus, some of the fuel needed to reach “severe” status will be eliminated.
Strong gusty winds will be likely with some minor damage possible, but an outbreak of severe weather is not expected.
6 P.M May 8, 2024
Latest model updates indicate two episodes of showers/storms tonight. The first will be here roughly 7-9 PM. As mentioned before, any severe storms with this system are likely to stay south of the Louisville area.
Second system will be around 1-5 AM. It’ll be a little stronger than the first system. However, any severe storms with this system are also likely to stay south of Louisville area.