Strong Storms getting closer

Friday, May 16, 2025 4:30 PM

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT

Storm system has been developing as expected. Numerous reports of extreme winds (more than 74 mph) and/or large hail (2″ diameter or more) have been concentrated mostly over SE MO. No tornado reports so far (4:20 PM) although the threat still remains.

As expected, the system appears to be organizing into a large line as it crosses the Mississippi River and races eastward at 50-55 miles per hour. One short-term model (RAP) is hinting at two squall lines forming – one ahead of the cold front and another with the front. In general, the 8 to 10 PM arrival time still looks pretty good. However, if the two thunderstorm lines idea works out, the first one could be in the 7-8 PM time frame with the second one about 9-10 PM.

Stay alert to local media for any warnings that may be issued.

Severe Storms this Evening?

Friday, may 16, 2025 12:30 PM

Situation hasn’t changed much since yesterday. Todays heating has been delayed by morning rain/clouds, but we’ll be into sunshine and strong southerly winds soon. That’ll be enough to still put us under a strong severe storms threat this evening. Best estimate looks like 8-10 PM tonight.

Currently, soon-to-be severe thunderstorms are firing over northern Arkansas into southern Missouri. This area will gradually merge into a line or two of severe thunderstorms and move rapidly eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Individual supercells will be possible ahead of the actual cold front pushing the squall line eastward. These supercells should be especially dangerous. Luckily for us, the most likely place for these isolated storms will occur from near the Mississippi River into West KY, southern IL and southern IN. It’s expected that these supercells will merge into lines and weaken a bit before reaching us.

Again, expect a line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms to pass through the Louisville area between about 8 to 10 PM.

Rough weather ahead?

Thursday, May 15, 2025 6 PM

Atmosphere is setting up for a big day of severe weather tomorrow and tomorrow night. Forecasts point to a major outbreak starting tomorrow midday over Arkansas, MO, IL with all severe categories moderate to high.  That outbreak will consolidate into one (or more) squall lines as it moves toward IN/KY tomorrow evening – roughly 8 PM to Midnight.That’s not the only problem – atmosphere also favors individual “discrete supercells” ahead of the cold front over western IN/KY tomorrow afternoon.  If these develop, they can be very damaging.  Supercells in the warm, humid air mass ahead of a cold front can be very dangerous.Meanwhile, as the warm air mass works its way northward tonight, we could see some non-severe thunderstorms this evening and again toward morning.

Update

5:45 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues with greatest threat headed over South Central Indiana – at least 30+ miles north of the Ohio River.

Farther south, 30 miles north and south of the River, the expected intensity increase has failed to fire. Line of storms headed toward Metro Louisville should remain mostly (if not entirely) below “severe” limits. They should produce strong, gusty winds and heavy rain between 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

3 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025

The Severe Storm Prediction Center has placed about half of our area into a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM tonight. The SPC is concerned about a fast-moving storm cluster coming from SE MO up the Ohio Valley for the next few hours as the storm system is expected to strengthen.

Judging from the current situation, the greatest threat here should be from about 7PM until 9 PM. Greatest threat is gusty winds which could reach up to 70 mph in a few isolated areas. This is not expected to be a widespread damaging system.

The Watch area basically includes Kentucky counties along the Ohio River and all of southern Indiana from western KY/IN to just east of I-65.

Interesting note: The SPC issues a Watch area as a large rectangle placed over a geographic area. This is primarily for aviation interests. Local forecast offices are allowed to “fine tune” the area for their local regions. Today we’re operating with a split decision.

The SPC Watch area includes Jefferson, Oldham, Bullitt and Hardin Counties. However, Louisville’s forecast office does NOT include these four counties.

That’s a good indication as to how “marginable” this situation really is.

We may get lucky

Sunday, March 30, 2025 8 P.M.

Line of storms approaching rapidly has strengthened over past two hours. This was expected, but something else seems to be developing…a process called bridging. What once was a solid line of severe storms is developing a hole in the middle. Thus, stronger storms moving northeast in Indiana, then a rather disorganized break in the storms along the Ohio River followed by another line of strong storms from western KY southwestward. This line is moving our way about 50 miles per hour and in our area by 9 PM and off to our east by 10PM.

Current indications are that this “bridge” will continue along the Ohio. Thus, the strongest storms are expected to occur in Indiana NORTH of us and the other batch will remain SOUTH of us.

We’ll see some, probably minor, damage locally, but it’ll worse north and south of the Metro area.

Two threats this week

Sunday, March 30, 2025 5 P.M.

Active thunderstorm day underway over the Mississippi Valley at this time. Area of greatest concern currently stretches from northern Indiana into southern Michigan. Major winds have been the biggest threat this afternoon with gusts from 70 – 85 mph reported. Storm Prediction Center says the extreme winds will continue over lower Michigan several more hours.

Meanwhile, the southern part of this system has been weaker today, but is about to get a shot of upper air energy. A cold front moving eastward is expected to intensify with the added energy. That’s where our area comes into play. This front, along with strong thunderstorms, will be moving rapidly eastward this evening, The front/storms should push through the Metro area between 9 and 11 P.M. tonight.

Just how strong the line of thunderstorms will be is an open question at this time. At least a few damaging wind gusts appear likely. But will they be isolated or widespread? Too early to tell at this point.

Keep your “weather eye” open tonight…at least until Midnight. The expected sunshine for the next few hours is not a good sign.

Second Threat

At this time, longer range forecast models are predicting several storm systems to pass through the Ohio Valley from Wednesday night into Saturday. Currently the consenses is an amazing SEVEN inches of rain during that time frame! As I’ve said probably thousands of times…it’s far too early for an accurate forecast. It this time, let’s just say there is a potential for some serious flooding late this week.

Serious Stuff.

We’ve been bombarded this week with stories about the “war bombing” leak to The Atlantic. The President and his merry band of MAGATs have been predictably repeating the same script…”not serious, nothing sensitive, nothing classified.” Yes, yes, the same old pile of BS keeps getting recycled. A simple question…what do you think would have been the reaction if General Eisenhower had given the British press his “war plan” on June 5, 1944?

This incident brings to mind stories from Trump 1.0. And since we are getting close to the annual “betting seminars” leading to Derby Day, it’s probably time for a repeat. Q. What is the safest bet you can make? A. When Donald Trumps’ mouth is open, he’s lying.


Iffy Tornado Watch

Wed. March 19, 2025 6:30 PM

Today’s outlooks have been very “iffy.” The biggest IF has been moisture…citing a critical need to have dew points reach the mid 50’s. They have reached that level in western KY, but so far activity has remained on the weaker side. Dew points here are only around 50.

Thus even if storms grow over western KY, they will be moving into drier air as they approach later tonight. Very little, if any, severe weather is likely near here as storms pass by between 10 PM and Midnight.

Cold and quiet

Wed. Feb. 19, 2025 5 P.M.

Even colder air is moving over us setting up a very cold Thursday, but we will see easing temperatures as soon as Friday. A small upper level disturbance is escorting the cold air and could squeeze out a few snow showers between 10 P.M. and 2 A.M. Little, if any, accumulation is expected. Morning wind chills are expected to be near zero.

Here we go again

Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025 4: 30 P.M.

Once again a snow system approaching us garnered a Winter Storm Warning even though the forecast doesn’t add up to the criteria.

A “Winter Storm” is supposed to have at least 4″ inches of snow and create significant road problems. So why does their Louisville forecast predict 1″-3″ of snow and minor road problems? Beats me!

Anyway, as we’ve been following this system for the past several days, some small changes with the forecast have been noticeable. Yesterday, the shift southward with the max snow axis (from right over Louisville to about 50 miles south of town. Today, a new wrinkle has popped up – forecasts for snow amounts have edged lower.

The usual snow to water ratio is 10 to 1. A little lower for wet snow and higher for dry snow. For example, this morning’s fluffy dry snow was about one inch while the liquid equivalent was only .01″. An amazing ratio of 100 to one! It’s not unusual for a dry snow ratio to reach 20 to one, or even 30 to one. But, 100 to one is amazing!

I say that because tonight’s snow will be dry and fluffy, so the water equivalent will again be low, but the cold, dry air means snowfall amounts could jump quickly upward.

Taking those things into consideration, my current thoughts are …

Clouds return soon followed by light snow beginning by 9-11 P.M. Snow should taper off by 7-8 A.M. tomorrow. Based on a snow ratio of 20 to 30, I expect snow accumulations of 2″ to 4″ for the Metro area. The lower end of that range should be north of I-64 with amounts slowly increasing south of the Interstate. With the low water content, the roads should improve quickly during the day. Then, some really cold air for a couple of days.

Stuff

Is the National Weather Service REALLY on “Elon and his Muskies” hit list?