5:45 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues with greatest threat headed over South Central Indiana – at least 30+ miles north of the Ohio River.
Farther south, 30 miles north and south of the River, the expected intensity increase has failed to fire. Line of storms headed toward Metro Louisville should remain mostly (if not entirely) below “severe” limits. They should produce strong, gusty winds and heavy rain between 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM.
3 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025
The Severe Storm Prediction Center has placed about half of our area into a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM tonight. The SPC is concerned about a fast-moving storm cluster coming from SE MO up the Ohio Valley for the next few hours as the storm system is expected to strengthen.
Judging from the current situation, the greatest threat here should be from about 7PM until 9 PM. Greatest threat is gusty winds which could reach up to 70 mph in a few isolated areas. This is not expected to be a widespread damaging system.
The Watch area basically includes Kentucky counties along the Ohio River and all of southern Indiana from western KY/IN to just east of I-65.
Interesting note: The SPC issues a Watch area as a large rectangle placed over a geographic area. This is primarily for aviation interests. Local forecast offices are allowed to “fine tune” the area for their local regions. Today we’re operating with a split decision.
The SPC Watch area includes Jefferson, Oldham, Bullitt and Hardin Counties. However, Louisville’s forecast office does NOT include these four counties.
That’s a good indication as to how “marginable” this situation really is.
Sunday, March 30, 2025 8 P.M.
Line of storms approaching rapidly has strengthened over past two hours. This was expected, but something else seems to be developing…a process called bridging. What once was a solid line of severe storms is developing a hole in the middle. Thus, stronger storms moving northeast in Indiana, then a rather disorganized break in the storms along the Ohio River followed by another line of strong storms from western KY southwestward. This line is moving our way about 50 miles per hour and in our area by 9 PM and off to our east by 10PM.
Current indications are that this “bridge” will continue along the Ohio. Thus, the strongest storms are expected to occur in Indiana NORTH of us and the other batch will remain SOUTH of us.
We’ll see some, probably minor, damage locally, but it’ll worse north and south of the Metro area.
Sunday, March 30, 2025 5 P.M.
Active thunderstorm day underway over the Mississippi Valley at this time. Area of greatest concern currently stretches from northern Indiana into southern Michigan. Major winds have been the biggest threat this afternoon with gusts from 70 – 85 mph reported. Storm Prediction Center says the extreme winds will continue over lower Michigan several more hours.
Meanwhile, the southern part of this system has been weaker today, but is about to get a shot of upper air energy. A cold front moving eastward is expected to intensify with the added energy. That’s where our area comes into play. This front, along with strong thunderstorms, will be moving rapidly eastward this evening, The front/storms should push through the Metro area between 9 and 11 P.M. tonight.
Just how strong the line of thunderstorms will be is an open question at this time. At least a few damaging wind gusts appear likely. But will they be isolated or widespread? Too early to tell at this point.
Keep your “weather eye” open tonight…at least until Midnight. The expected sunshine for the next few hours is not a good sign.
Second Threat
At this time, longer range forecast models are predicting several storm systems to pass through the Ohio Valley from Wednesday night into Saturday. Currently the consenses is an amazing SEVEN inches of rain during that time frame! As I’ve said probably thousands of times…it’s far too early for an accurate forecast. It this time, let’s just say there is a potential for some serious flooding late this week.
Serious Stuff.
We’ve been bombarded this week with stories about the “war bombing” leak to The Atlantic. The President and his merry band of MAGATs have been predictably repeating the same script…”not serious, nothing sensitive, nothing classified.” Yes, yes, the same old pile of BS keeps getting recycled. A simple question…what do you think would have been the reaction if General Eisenhower had given the British press his “war plan” on June 5, 1944?
This incident brings to mind stories from Trump 1.0. And since we are getting close to the annual “betting seminars” leading to Derby Day, it’s probably time for a repeat. Q. What is the safest bet you can make? A. When Donald Trumps’ mouth is open, he’s lying.
Wed. March 19, 2025 6:30 PM
Today’s outlooks have been very “iffy.” The biggest IF has been moisture…citing a critical need to have dew points reach the mid 50’s. They have reached that level in western KY, but so far activity has remained on the weaker side. Dew points here are only around 50.
Thus even if storms grow over western KY, they will be moving into drier air as they approach later tonight. Very little, if any, severe weather is likely near here as storms pass by between 10 PM and Midnight.
Wed. Feb. 19, 2025 5 P.M.
Even colder air is moving over us setting up a very cold Thursday, but we will see easing temperatures as soon as Friday. A small upper level disturbance is escorting the cold air and could squeeze out a few snow showers between 10 P.M. and 2 A.M. Little, if any, accumulation is expected. Morning wind chills are expected to be near zero.
Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025 4: 30 P.M.
Once again a snow system approaching us garnered a Winter Storm Warning even though the forecast doesn’t add up to the criteria.
A “Winter Storm” is supposed to have at least 4″ inches of snow and create significant road problems. So why does their Louisville forecast predict 1″-3″ of snow and minor road problems? Beats me!
Anyway, as we’ve been following this system for the past several days, some small changes with the forecast have been noticeable. Yesterday, the shift southward with the max snow axis (from right over Louisville to about 50 miles south of town. Today, a new wrinkle has popped up – forecasts for snow amounts have edged lower.
The usual snow to water ratio is 10 to 1. A little lower for wet snow and higher for dry snow. For example, this morning’s fluffy dry snow was about one inch while the liquid equivalent was only .01″. An amazing ratio of 100 to one! It’s not unusual for a dry snow ratio to reach 20 to one, or even 30 to one. But, 100 to one is amazing!
I say that because tonight’s snow will be dry and fluffy, so the water equivalent will again be low, but the cold, dry air means snowfall amounts could jump quickly upward.
Taking those things into consideration, my current thoughts are …
Clouds return soon followed by light snow beginning by 9-11 P.M. Snow should taper off by 7-8 A.M. tomorrow. Based on a snow ratio of 20 to 30, I expect snow accumulations of 2″ to 4″ for the Metro area. The lower end of that range should be north of I-64 with amounts slowly increasing south of the Interstate. With the low water content, the roads should improve quickly during the day. Then, some really cold air for a couple of days.
Stuff
Is the National Weather Service REALLY on “Elon and his Muskies” hit list?
Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 12:30 P.M.
The news this morning is not good for snow lovers. Both the GFS and NAM have reduced their snow forecasts for the region. It turns out that the cold air mass moving in is colder and deeper than the models had been projecting. The result of that is the new storm coming out the west will have to take a more southerly track to get around the cold air mass.
Thus, the predicted position of the swath of heaviest snow now looks like it’ll over central and southern KY. That also tends to reduce the amount of moisture which travels this far north.
So, here’s my latest. Snow will move into the area tomorrow evening and depart from our area before Noon Wednesday. Snow accumulation in the Louisville should be about 2″-4″. Snow totals drop of quickly north of the Ohio while higher amounts occur along and south of the Bluegrass Parkway.
Sunday, Feb.16, 2025 4:30 P.M.
As expected, the major flood-producing storm left some snow behind when it moved east. But this was just a teaser. Tuesday night/Wednesday will be the real deal.
We’ve been watching for several days the next storm, now moving into the intermountain west, as a possible snow-maker for us beginning Tuesday night. Model run after model run, the chance for snow and the amount of snow have been slowly inching upward. Currently, I’m estimating a 4″ to 6″ snow accumulation. It’s still two days out, so things could change. This storm won’t be like the one in January. It’s colder this time, so no sleet and rain will mess things up. Just pure fluffy, dry snow!
Stuff
The Academy Awards are coming soon, so I thought I’d give you notice of a record that will NOT be broken this year – longest picture to ever win the Best Film Award. The record is 3 hours 54 minutes! The title holder is ………. Gone With The Wind.
Saturday, Feb.15,2025 5 P.M.
Some small changes in forecast models have lead to some tweaks to my forecast since yesterday. Changes to tonight’s rain forecast have lowered the expected rainfall for us along the Ohio River. Nevertheless, Flood Warnings and Watches still cover Kentucky as a high probability for flooding will continue overnight. The highest rainfall amounts, 4″ – 5″, are likely south of Louisville – roughly 30 miles either side of a line from Fort Campbell to Lexington. Be especially watchful for flooding in that area overnight.
Louisville area is likely to see about 2″-3″ of rainfall – mostly between now and Midnight. Given our already saturated soil, we’ll see plenty of flooded areas as well, just not as bad as southern KY.
Another update to this storm concerns the arrival of colder air tomorrow morning. It nows looks as though we’ll see a minor snow accumulation tomorrow morning. Current indications are for less than an inch accumulation, mostly on grassy areas. Little, if any, on roadways.
The other system we talked about yesterday was about a possible snow-maker Tuesday night. Since then, the GFS model has been slowly increasing the snow potential with this system. There’s still plenty of time for additional changes, but for now, the snow forecast stands at about 3″ – 5″ for the Louisville area!
Stuff
Pres. Trump declares “I am a women. And so are you.” Not exactly in those words, but that was one his early “orders”. (I warned you this regime would be quite funny.)
In his declaration that there are only two sexes – male and female – he specifically mentioned that “male” or “female” would be determined at “conception”. However, the NIH says that at conception, we ALL have female genitalia. After about 6-7 weeks male genitalia appears. So, at conception all humans are female!
Thus, according to his own proclamation, Donald Trump is our FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT. Sorry Hilary and Kamala, he beat you to it.
Note: I know the edict has been stayed by a judge. I don’t know the current status. I’m not at all surprised that the Pres would order that edict be put in place. That’s just the way he operates. I am, however, amazed that not one of his many MAGATS bowing to his every word even bothered to look it up!