Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2016  6 P.M.

After a very dry October, forecasts had been indicating a possibly rainy start to this month.  Unfortunately, that outlook has been drying quickly.  The models stated playing down the rain last night and the trend has continued.  There’s still a pretty high chance for rain tomorrow morning (50%-60%) but even if we do get rain, it won’t be much.  It’s likely to stay below .10″, so not much help to our dry conditions.

One thing the models have strengthened, though, is the magnitude of the colder air to follow – models are now running up to 5 degrees colder (than yesterday) for the weekend.  That still keeps us in above normal temperatures, however.

Looks like we’ll see a period of colder-than-normal weather setting up after Election Day.  More on that later.

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Storms fade…no threat to metro area.

Southeastward thrust to storms continues and any severe weather threat for the Louisville metro area has faded away.  Some heavy rain/gusty winds will hit southern Jefferson County and northern Bullitt County over next 30-45 minutes, but the storms will not be very strong.  Otherwise, rain is fading over southern Indiana.  So, it now appears that most of Jefferson County will get little, if any, rain.

Thursday, July 7, 2016  4:45 P.M.

Decreasing threat to Jefferson County

Most active part of line of thunderstorms approaching us has shifted southward into parts of Meade and Hardin Counties.  Hardin County could still see strong winds of 50 mph or more for the next hour.

Meanwhile, northern part of the line is now entirely south of I-64 in southern Harrison County.  Gusty winds are still likely, but they should stay in the 40-45 mph range.  This line will bring similar winds to areas of Jefferson Co. south of the Watterson X Way between 5:15 and 6 P.M.  Northern Jefferson County and southern Indiana (north of I-64) will be much calmer – not much rain and little wind threat.

Thursday, July 7, 2016  4 P.M.

After the wide model divergence this morning, it’s looking more and more likely as though the short-term models will win out over the big guys (GFS and NAM).  To their credit, the NAM and GFS are rapidly catching on.

Storm Prediction Center has a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH covering about the western half of KY, but it stops short of Louisville.  It doesn’t matter about the watch boundary, because we’re in just as much risk (low) for severe winds as the folks to our west are.  A line of thunderstorms covers southwestern IN and western KY and is rapidly moving eastward – pushing quite strong gusty winds our way.  Radar estimates suggest 60-70 mph winds, but surface results usually don’t match the estimates.  Nevertheless, extreme southern IN and the Louisville area can expect strong (perhaps severe) wind gusts as this line races  through the metro area between approximately 5:15 and 6:30 P.M.  Scattered minor damage and some power outages are likely during that time.

The threat of severe winds from this system drops to near zero very quickly north of I-64.  The above description and timing pertain mostly to the area of IN and KY along and south of I-64.

Thursday, July 7, 2016  11 A.M.

Looking at this morning’s forecast models and actual forecasts is almost a case of “What’s going on?”  Everything you look at has a different story to tell.  First, the NWS forecast includes a scant 20% chance for rain/t-storms today and another 20% chance tonight.  The backbone of our forecast system, the GFS produces a 1% chance today and about 40% tonight (LAMP) and a 4% chance today, 45% tonight (MOS).  Meanwhile, the NAM model output is also low…11% today and 53% tonight.  By the way, all of the “tonight” forecasts call for the rain after midnight.

On the other hand, the Storm Prediction Center gives us a 40% chance for thunderstorms today and just 10% tonight.   Then, the two primary short-term forecasts chime in with a slight different story.  Both the RAP and the HRRR predict a line of thunderstorms to reach the Louisville area between roughly 8 P.M. and Midnight.  Earlier today I saw WAVE TV’s in house model project a line of storms between 6 and 8 P.M..

What’s one to believe?  Good question!  First of all the GFS has been terrible lately as evidenced by a lot of forecasts we’ve heard recently.  Second, the short-term forecasts are better at picking up on the “outflow boundaries” created by previous storm systems, so they should be more reliable.  As a result, I’d lean toward the RAP/HRRR/WAVE forecast expecting a line of thunderstorms this evening.  We’ll see how it plays out.

Latest radar shows single remaining strong t-storm cell in area – just north of the Ohio River in southern Clark Co.  Storm is moving northeast along the river – probably reaching far NE Jefferson Co. and Oldham Co. by 4:50.  Strong, gusty winds possible.  Otherwise, nothing to be concerned about on metro area.

Sunday afternoon

It seems like it’s been a week, maybe longer.  I’ve been warned about a possibility of an ice storm this weekend.  Constant barrages of what we could have – sleet (maybe) rain(maybe), slow(maybe, and freezing rain(maybe).  Starting a couple of days ago, the frozen options began to fall out of the “options” list (as per the computer models),  but not from the forecasts.  If you read (very carefully )the NWS forecast today, it’s a forecast for rain(as it should be).  However, why is the forecast so full of references to sleet and freezing rain and possibly snow flakes??? Beats me!  How long do you think it’ll take the weather service to get all the icy words out of the Louisville forecast?

Until they do, here’s my forecast.., Light rain should move into the area by 3-4 P.M.  Rain should get a little heavier during the evening hours, then should become more scattered again after midnight.  Temperatures will fall into the upper 30’s to near 40 once the rain begins.  Temperatures will hold fairly steady in the 36-38 range most of the night then fall to the mid 30’s tomorrow afternoon.

The above forecast is for the Louisville metro area.  As we get 20-30 miles north of Louisville a  little light freezing rain will be possible this evening, but it will quickly change over to all rain.  Roads are expected to remain wet, not icy.

Thursday Afternoon

Still pretty calm on the weather front.  We’ll see  a warming trend beginning tomorrow that will continue through Sunday.  Then we’ll begin a slow slide into colder weather beginning Monday.  Models remain very consistent.  Mostly sunny tomorrow, then cloudy Saturday with a small chance for rain near Louisville, but higher over Indiana.  Any rain that falls will be light.  For several days the models have been agreeing on a Sunday arrival of a strong storm from the southwest.  That will bring a chance for moderate to heavy rains and temperatures reaching as high as 60 or so.  The only difference since yesterday is a slight delay in the arrival of Sunday’s rain.  Favored time now seems to be Sunday afternoon and night.

Longer term:  Cold weather will be the rule for most of next week.  It’ll be generally dry after Monday, but we will see a chance for some light snow or flurries Wednesday night.

Winter Outlook

The National Weather Service today issued their winter outlook.  Meteorological winter is the months of December, January, and February.

This outlook has undergone some major changes (toward colder) in the past two months. The September edition had almost no area of the U.S. in “below normal” category.  Then, last month, they added Texas and a small area surrounding.  Today, that area has expanded to cover about three times more of the country.  That’s an amazing change, but I still don’t think they’ve gone nearly far enough to the cold side.  Now they have us with about a 35% chance for winter temperatures to be below normal.

I’ve checked a half dozen or so non-government sources for their winter forecasts and they generally run much colder than the “official” outlook.  I’ve mentioned before about a private group called Weather Bell Analytics.  For my money, I think they are the best around at seasonal forecasting.  Here’s their winter forecast.  I think it’ll be a lot closer to what actually happens than the NWS version.

Buffalo Snow

We’ve all been hearing about, and seeing pictures of the epic snows around Buffalo, New York.  Here are a few of the ones I like the best.

Just kidding

On the first two, you can see how narrow the bands of snow off the lake are.  Within 20 miles of the 5′-6′ snows you are likely to find areas with just a few inches of snow – it all depends on the wind direction!  The last photo gets my award for greatest ingenuity.