Category Archives: Uncategorized

5 P.M. update

Friday, Jan. 28, 2022  5 P.M.

Heaviest snow showers locally have been over the western three-fourths of Jefferson Co. KY.  Both SDF and LOU have reported heavy snow much of the past hour.  In IN, Floyd and Harrison Co. seem to have picked up some quick accumulations.

Heaviest snow between 5 -6 P.M. will move into Bullitt Co. and Spencer Co.  Jefferson County (especially the southern half) will continue to see moderate to heavy snow showers.

Little snow for Louisville area

Noon  Wed. Jan. 19, 2022

The GFS still has about a half inch of snow for us (Louisville area) while four other models now agree than any significant snow will once again fall over central KY.  Looks like the area from Bowling Green to Lexington to Ashland is in for another 4″+.

More later.

Snowy weekend?

Substantial Snowfall possible

Wed., Jan. 12, 2022  4:30 P.M.

GFS forecast this morning generates 8+ inches of snow for Louisville from late Saturday through Sunday.  Other models have wide-ranging solutions to a developing storm over the region – from mostly rain to rain/snow mix to just a little snow.

With many complexities working into various model’s ideas, it’s far too early to know how this system will ultimately come together.  But it will be fun watching the next few days as various ideas come and go.  The model BLEND (a combination of many U.S. models with others from Canada, Europe and Australia) currently predicts 2.5 to 3″ from this system.  BUT, the same model predicts ZERO measurable precipitation during that time.  See how confusing this stuff can get?

Meanwhile, as we move on, more and more clarity should come into view.  At least I hope so.  Personally I’m hoping the GFS comes through – as it often does.

La Nina

As mentioned a week or so back, the “unloading” of cold arctic air from Canada is well underway.  As usual in La Nina winters, the bulk of the cold air has moved far more east than south,  We’ve seem some below normal temperatures, but our neighbors over the Great Lakes and northeastern states have seem some really cold weather.  This trend is showing signs of lasting another two weeks or so.  But the warm part of La Nina should return in February.


In Gainesville, Georgia, it is illegal to eat fried chicken with a fork.

Light snow tonight

4:30 P.M., Wed. Feb.17, 2021

Heavy snow stays south and east of Louisville

The latest winter storm to come our way just can’t seem to get its act together.  Sure, there’s energy aloft and moisture available, but all the ingredients for heavy snow here are just not lining up.  Along and south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington to Morehead, snow accumulations of 4″-6″ or more are likely.

But, we’ll be on the northern fringe of the system where the upglide (lifting motions) will be weak.  The Louisville area will get 1″-3″ of new snow.  That should break down to about 2″-3″ from Louisville into our bordering counties south and east.  Southern Indiana will have a diminishing trend from the Ohio River north and west.  Starting at about 1″-2″ near the river and dropping off to near zero 30-40 miles away from the river.

Light snow will continue tomorrow morning before fading away during the afternoon.  Little or no additional accumulation.


I found this little tidbit really amazing…

British mathematician Kit Yates has calculated that the estimated 2 quintillion coronavirus particles floating around the world would fit inside a single Coke can.

Precip. fades away overnight

11 P.M. Wed., Feb 10, 2021

Heaviest precipitation has moved south and east this evening and will continuing moving away early Thursday morning.  All snow (by that time) will be gone before daybreak.  Less than an inch of snow on top of the ice.

Freezing rain has mostly given way to sleet locally and that will change to mostly snow in a few hours.  But not much of either.

Thursday will be dry, but cloudy and cold so not much melting will occur.

Active weather continues.

Saturday, Jan. 16, 2021  6 P.M.

The upper air disturbances keep coming our way.  It was nice to actually watch the snow today…seems what little snow we’ve had this winter has fallen at night.

Afternoon flurries will fade away tonight.  No problems are expected in the metro area as temperatures are expected to stay above freezing.

Another upper air system will move across the region tomorrow.  Louisville’s weather should be much the same as today – periods of light snow but no accumulation.  The snow will be a little heavier in southern Indiana where some minor accumulations are possible.

At least  we’ll get to see it snow again!

Light snow tonight and…

Friday, Jan. 15, 2021

Situation is developing pretty much as described in yesterday’s post…check that for more details.  Meanwhile…

Tonight:  periods of light snow.  accumulations range from “a dusting” up to one inch by morning.

Tomorrow: a few flurries possible while Friday night’s snow melts away.

Late tomorrow night/Sunday:  another round of light snow begins (especially north of the Ohio River).  Little or no accumulation in Louisville area.  However, 1″- 2″ possible over south central Indiana.

That possible storm around 1/24 has dropped out of the models…too warm for snow.  But we will get colder air for the last week of January.

Looks like a White Christmas!

1 P.M. Thursday, Dec. 24, 2020

Short-term models are predicting a significant outbreak of snow showers/flurries this afternoon and evening.  With temperatures in the 20’s, snow will accumulate and slick roads will develop.  With the cold air around, the light, fluffy snow could accumulate to several inches this evening.  Water content will be very low, but dry snow accumulation features plenty of air to fluff it up.  The low water content, however, should allow roads to stay  in fairly good shape.

Snow should begin in Louisville area by mid afternoon.  Accumulating snow will end before midnight.  The whole area should get about an inch of snow. However, systems like this usually form some heavier “cells” of snow showers.  If one of these hits you, 2″-4″ inches will be likely.

So as an estimate:  within a 40 mile radius of Louisville…                                                                        up to 1″ – near 100%                                                                                                                                        1″-2″ –   about 50% of the area                                                                                                                      2″-4″ –  about 20%                                                                                                                                            4″+   – about 5%

Since yesterday, I found the traditional greeting for the season

Lo Saturnalia   (lo is pronounced    “yo”)

Saturnalia is the reason Christmas is celebrated on Dec. 25th


Very cold for Christmas

6 P.M. Wed., Dec. 23, 2020

Rain likely tonight…probably ending 2-3 A.M.  No snow, as cold enough air won’t arrive until daybreak.

Mostly cloudy, windy and cold tomorrow – some flurries possible .

Tomorrow night continues with mostly cloudy and cold with flurries possible.

Best chance for snow will be Christmas morning as an upper air system tries to wring out some moisture.  Some minor accumulations (less than an inch) possible.  Christmas day will be very cold with highs mostly in the low 20’s

Note:  Snow is likely over eastern KY (mostly along and east of I-75) tomorrow into Christmas Day.  Around an inch near Lexington but the far eastern mountainous areas could see 2″-4″.

Happy Saturnalia!!!  (The real “reason for the season.”