Today’s models can’t seem to agree on snow tonight, but rain is a sure bet.

First, a note on Sunday’s snowfall. Sunday’s weather events gave yet another reason why weather is so fascinating. Both the event itself and the (lack of) forecasting it. Rain was the models’ choice while also giving hints that there could be some snow at the start. But nothing like the 1″+ we had around the county. And that’s about the only place snow fell.

As the rain moved in, a sudden intensification of the precipation brought colder temperatures AND snow into Jefferson County and almost nowhere else.

Weather can be so much fun!

Tonight

Meanwhile, tonight’s system will be much stronger and almost all signs point to rain. This morning, the GFS was the only model predicting snow at the start with a quick change to rain. Now, other models are drawing closer to the snow start followed by rain. Temperatures with this system are about 3-5 degrees warmer than Sunday’s, so if any snow falls, it’ll melt quickly.

Snow and/or rain should begin around Midnight or shortly after. By 2-3A.M. any chance for snow will be gone. After that, periods of rain will continue during the morning then fade away by late afternoon. Winds will pick up during the afternoon with gusts probably topping 35 mph.

Snow flurries will be likely tomorrow night and Thursday.

Stuff:

The northernmost point of Brazil is closer to Canada than it is to the southernmost point of Brazil.

11 P.M. UPDATE

Now looks like an hour or two of snow/sleet will be mixed in with the onset of rain around daybreak. Any minor accumulations on grassy areas will fade away during the morning.

6 P.M. Monday 6/6

Storm cluster weakening

Satellite, radar and lightning data all have shown a rapid decrease in storm intensity in the northern half of the convective system moving across the region.  A couple of severe storms could still pop over far southern KY, but the rest of us will receive a good soaking this evening.

Friday, Jan. 28, 2022  5 P.M.

Heaviest snow showers locally have been over the western three-fourths of Jefferson Co. KY.  Both SDF and LOU have reported heavy snow much of the past hour.  In IN, Floyd and Harrison Co. seem to have picked up some quick accumulations.

Heaviest snow between 5 -6 P.M. will move into Bullitt Co. and Spencer Co.  Jefferson County (especially the southern half) will continue to see moderate to heavy snow showers.

Noon  Wed. Jan. 19, 2022

The GFS still has about a half inch of snow for us (Louisville area) while four other models now agree than any significant snow will once again fall over central KY.  Looks like the area from Bowling Green to Lexington to Ashland is in for another 4″+.

More later.

Substantial Snowfall possible

Wed., Jan. 12, 2022  4:30 P.M.

GFS forecast this morning generates 8+ inches of snow for Louisville from late Saturday through Sunday.  Other models have wide-ranging solutions to a developing storm over the region – from mostly rain to rain/snow mix to just a little snow.

With many complexities working into various model’s ideas, it’s far too early to know how this system will ultimately come together.  But it will be fun watching the next few days as various ideas come and go.  The model BLEND (a combination of many U.S. models with others from Canada, Europe and Australia) currently predicts 2.5 to 3″ from this system.  BUT, the same model predicts ZERO measurable precipitation during that time.  See how confusing this stuff can get?

Meanwhile, as we move on, more and more clarity should come into view.  At least I hope so.  Personally I’m hoping the GFS comes through – as it often does.

La Nina

As mentioned a week or so back, the “unloading” of cold arctic air from Canada is well underway.  As usual in La Nina winters, the bulk of the cold air has moved far more east than south,  We’ve seem some below normal temperatures, but our neighbors over the Great Lakes and northeastern states have seem some really cold weather.  This trend is showing signs of lasting another two weeks or so.  But the warm part of La Nina should return in February.

Stuff

In Gainesville, Georgia, it is illegal to eat fried chicken with a fork.

4:30 P.M., Wed. Feb.17, 2021

Heavy snow stays south and east of Louisville

The latest winter storm to come our way just can’t seem to get its act together.  Sure, there’s energy aloft and moisture available, but all the ingredients for heavy snow here are just not lining up.  Along and south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington to Morehead, snow accumulations of 4″-6″ or more are likely.

But, we’ll be on the northern fringe of the system where the upglide (lifting motions) will be weak.  The Louisville area will get 1″-3″ of new snow.  That should break down to about 2″-3″ from Louisville into our bordering counties south and east.  Southern Indiana will have a diminishing trend from the Ohio River north and west.  Starting at about 1″-2″ near the river and dropping off to near zero 30-40 miles away from the river.

Light snow will continue tomorrow morning before fading away during the afternoon.  Little or no additional accumulation.

Stuff:

I found this little tidbit really amazing…

British mathematician Kit Yates has calculated that the estimated 2 quintillion coronavirus particles floating around the world would fit inside a single Coke can.

6;30 P.M.  Mon., Feb 15, 2021

Drop the louisville metro forecast to 1″-3″ of ice and snow.

11 P.M. Wed., Feb 10, 2021

Heaviest precipitation has moved south and east this evening and will continuing moving away early Thursday morning.  All snow (by that time) will be gone before daybreak.  Less than an inch of snow on top of the ice.

Freezing rain has mostly given way to sleet locally and that will change to mostly snow in a few hours.  But not much of either.

Thursday will be dry, but cloudy and cold so not much melting will occur.

Saturday, Jan. 16, 2021  6 P.M.

The upper air disturbances keep coming our way.  It was nice to actually watch the snow today…seems what little snow we’ve had this winter has fallen at night.

Afternoon flurries will fade away tonight.  No problems are expected in the metro area as temperatures are expected to stay above freezing.

Another upper air system will move across the region tomorrow.  Louisville’s weather should be much the same as today – periods of light snow but no accumulation.  The snow will be a little heavier in southern Indiana where some minor accumulations are possible.

At least  we’ll get to see it snow again!