Friday, Jan. 15, 2021

Situation is developing pretty much as described in yesterday’s post…check that for more details.  Meanwhile…

Tonight:  periods of light snow.  accumulations range from “a dusting” up to one inch by morning.

Tomorrow: a few flurries possible while Friday night’s snow melts away.

Late tomorrow night/Sunday:  another round of light snow begins (especially north of the Ohio River).  Little or no accumulation in Louisville area.  However, 1″- 2″ possible over south central Indiana.

P.S.
That possible storm around 1/24 has dropped out of the models…too warm for snow.  But we will get colder air for the last week of January.

1 P.M. Thursday, Dec. 24, 2020

Short-term models are predicting a significant outbreak of snow showers/flurries this afternoon and evening.  With temperatures in the 20’s, snow will accumulate and slick roads will develop.  With the cold air around, the light, fluffy snow could accumulate to several inches this evening.  Water content will be very low, but dry snow accumulation features plenty of air to fluff it up.  The low water content, however, should allow roads to stay  in fairly good shape.

Snow should begin in Louisville area by mid afternoon.  Accumulating snow will end before midnight.  The whole area should get about an inch of snow. However, systems like this usually form some heavier “cells” of snow showers.  If one of these hits you, 2″-4″ inches will be likely.

So as an estimate:  within a 40 mile radius of Louisville…                                                                        up to 1″ – near 100%                                                                                                                                        1″-2″ –   about 50% of the area                                                                                                                      2″-4″ –  about 20%                                                                                                                                            4″+   – about 5%

Since yesterday, I found the traditional greeting for the season

Lo Saturnalia   (lo is pronounced    “yo”)

Saturnalia is the reason Christmas is celebrated on Dec. 25th

6 P.M. Wed., Dec. 23, 2020

Rain likely tonight…probably ending 2-3 A.M.  No snow, as cold enough air won’t arrive until daybreak.

Mostly cloudy, windy and cold tomorrow – some flurries possible .

Tomorrow night continues with mostly cloudy and cold with flurries possible.

Best chance for snow will be Christmas morning as an upper air system tries to wring out some moisture.  Some minor accumulations (less than an inch) possible.  Christmas day will be very cold with highs mostly in the low 20’s

Note:  Snow is likely over eastern KY (mostly along and east of I-75) tomorrow into Christmas Day.  Around an inch near Lexington but the far eastern mountainous areas could see 2″-4″.

Happy Saturnalia!!!  (The real “reason for the season.”

11 PM Dec. 15, 2020

Evening models  have shifted everything about 30-40 miles farther north than earlier.  That puts the Louisville area into the little or nothing snow category.  Meanwhile, 1″-3″ inches of wet snow remains likely in all but extreme southern Indiana.

Thursday, March 19, 2020  11 P.M.

After Midnight, periods of thunderstorms/heavy rain/possible flash flooding over the southern third of IN, but stay north of Ohio River until about 5 A.M.

Louisville area has showers/thunderstorms 5 – 8 AM.

NO severe thunderstorms are expected, and flash flooding threat fading over the area, especially south of the Ohio River.

Heavy rain, strong winds tomorrow

6 P.M. Friday, January 10, 2020

A major storm system will move across the area tomorrow.  We’ve seen several similar systems over the past few months and the results should be about the same as the previous ones.

But, first, let’s look back at how the forecast has evolved this week.  The hype was out early – Monday I heard “potential” for 5″-7″ rains (Thursday through Saturday), major severe storms outbreak Saturday, high winds and flooding were added to the mix.

By Tuesday, the rain potential was down to 3″-5″, but all the other dire circumstances were still in play.  Wednesday, the rain potential forecast was down to 2″-3″ and rain for Thursday was out but still a 90% chance for rain Thursday night and Friday.  The bad-news vibe for Saturday was still there.   Wind gust forecast was now up to 50-55 mph.

Thursday was a nice day, but the bad news would start Thursday night – it didn’t.  But, Friday would be a rainy day setting the stage for Saturday’s deluge.  Also, the rain forecast was now down to 1″- 3″.

Friday.  The  total rain forecast is now down to 1″-1.5″.  Wind gust forecast is still calling for a few gusts to 45 mph in Louisville area.  My current forecast expects a few showers in the area until 10 P.M. followed by dry windy weather later tonight through tomorrow morning.

This is a good reminder about the scourge of hype that has infected meteorology and the media.  This is not new – there was plenty of it during the time I was working.  It just seems to be getting worse.  The same thing holds for the “climate crisis.”  There is no climate crisis.  So many dire claims; no verification.  Supposedly, in the past 30 years, or so,  42 specific “predictions” of things that would happen before 2020 have been made. So far, none of the 42 has happened.  But, I digress.

Tomorrow

Here’s what I expect tomorrow.  Partly cloudy, windy and warm in the morning.  Temperatures will reach a record high in the low to mid 70’s.  Winds will gust into the 30-40 mph range by late morning. That’s the easy part.

The GFS has the cold front/heavy rains pushing through between Noon and 4 P.M. while the NAM is four hours later.  Let’s compromise and say 2-6 P.M.  During that time heavy rain is likely.  Thunderstorms are possible, but a pretty low risk.  Wind speeds and gusts will be lower during the afternoon than they were in the morning.

After the heavy rain  moves east, winds will pick up again into the 30-40 mph gust range and temperatures drop rapidly to near 40 by Sunday morning.

Notes:  The NAM predicts the center of low pressure with this storm to move/form right over Louisville tomorrow afternoon.  The GFS hints at it.  IF that happens, you’ll notice two results.  1).  Rainfall will be less than currently predicted.  Total rainfall would probably be less than one inch.                                                                                                                                                                    2).  Winds will be weaker than expected.  Morning gusts in the 25-35 mph range.  Evening gusts in about the same range.

Either way, not to much to be worried about.

Thursday, August, 8, 2019

We’ve had some crazy pretty forecasts this summer, especially before our weather turned dry over the past six weeks.  Meanwhile, the recent dry weather has  us hoping for some needed rainfall.  And,  the National Weather Service has given us some hope for tomorrow and tomorrow night.  I just have no idea where their forecast came from!

They’ve got a 50% chance for both time periods.  The models I’ve seen have dropped rain chances to less than 10%.  So, what’s up?  I have no idea.  I don’t see any rain tomorrow or tomorrow night.  But, I’d sure like to get a good, soaking rain.  I just don’t see it happening soon.

Remember back in May and early June how 50% forecasts brought us many heavy rain episodes?  Seems to me the forecast probabilities were too low then, and too high now.

3:15 P.M.

Radar indications are now projecting the heaviest period of rain at Churchill Downs should be between 3:45 and 6 P.M.  Rain should lighten, perhaps even end, by Race Time.  Either way, it looks like the track condition will be either sloppy or muddy.

Horse race reminder:

No one ever bets enough on a winning horse.