4:15 P.M. Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022

Better news!

Some big changes from earlier.  Wind gusts will be much weaker than previously expected.  Louisville area and Southern Indiana wind gusts will most likely stay in the 30-38 mph range.  No longer a serious damage threat here.

However, wind gusts up to 40-45 mph will still be likely until about 8 P.M. over southern and eastern KY.

Another change…the prospect for severe thunderstorms over southern KY has dropped to a very low level.

For the Louisville area, periods of heavy rain will move through the area for the next hour or two.  Rain will end over the area between 6 and 7 P.M.  Then cold weather moves in overnight.

12:30 P.M. Thursday, Feb.17,2022

Powerful upper air system – weak surface low pressure.  That pretty well sums up today’s weather pattern.  Those upper winds will translate to the surface this afternoon and evening.  Most of Kentucky will see gusts of 40-50 mph between 3 P.M. and 7 P.M.  The strongest wind gusts will be over southern and eastern KY.  Southern Indiana winds will most likely be in the 35-45 mph range.  Expect to see scattered power outages and downed trees/limbs as well.

Heavy rains will be likely throughout the area this afternoon.  One to two inches possible in some spots (especially north of the Ohio River) in just a few hours.  Flash flood prone areas will likely see some flooding.

The biggest question regarding this system is the possibility of severe thunderstorms.  Sometimes  very strong dynamics will overwhelm weak (or no) instability and do all the work itself.  Most likely, this system will be one of the overachievers.  But, luckily, not for the Louisville area or southern Indiana.

A weak surface low pressure is expected roll up the Ohio River this afternoon/evening.  That provides us protection from severe thunderstorms.  However, along and south of the Western KY Parkway, enough instability will probably develop to allow damaging thunderstorms.  High winds will be the primary threat.

This type of system has a history of strong nighttime tornado outbreaks over the deep south.  Tonight should be no exception.  Most of Mississippi, northern Alabama and western Tennessee have the highest risk.

1 P.M. Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022

For several days I’ve been been looking at model after model after model etc trying to figure out today’s expected icy weather.  Even this morning, five different models are giving different outcomes.  Those results have told me one thing that I didn’t want to know – my expectation for mostly sleet was wrong.  But, it finally brought me the answer.  An old expression from my college days popped into my head – “The last wave on the train is always the strongest”.

I’m not going to explain that now.  Let’s just say the last wave will cross southern and eastern KY this afternoon and evening.  And, it’s a little stronger than the models picked up on earlier.  That changes everything.

In general, the added strength of the wave will slow the progress of the cold air south of the Ohio River and delay the onset of freezing rain entering Kentucky.  The predicted major ice storm won’t get started until most of the moisture is gone.  It’s doubtful that any part of the Commonwealth will get over .25″  of freezing rain.  Most of central and southern KY will see very little.  No big problems with ice.

This last wave will produce periods of moderate rain until about 5 P.M.  Then, as the rain intensity tapers, colder air will arrive.  So we’ll see a few hours of light freezing rain and sleet from about 6- 9 P.M.  After that,  periods of light snow/flurries will continue overnight. Total accumulation of sleet and snow of up to one inch by morning.  Icing of perhaps .1″ to .2″.

Travel conditions should remain generally good through the evening.  As always, the primary concern will be freezing of bridges and overpasses after 6 P.M.

In summary:  the predicted major ice storm will be a dud.

NOTE:  The above discussion refers to Kentucky only.  For Indiana (except for the extreme southern edge), A major winter storm is going on.  From freezing rain and sleet near the river to heavy snows farther north, the Hoosier state travel will be hazardous.

6 P.M. Monday, Jan. 31, 2022

Three days ahead is a very difficult time to figure out what a storm system is going to do.  Never one to shy away from the attempt, however, here’s what the models are telling me today.

1).  Heavy rains are likely Wednesday and Thursday.  2″-3″ are possible.

2).  Another huge mass of cold air is dropping out of Canada and will be dropping only very slowly southward.  Upper upper air winds will be opposing the southward push of cold low level air.  The result will be a very shallow cold air mass reaching us during Thursday.  That is a big indicator for freezing rain and sleet, not snow.

3).  Thursday morning we’ll see rain with slowly falling temperatures during the day.  About 40 deg at morning rush hour sliding to the lower 30’s by evening rush hour.  The southern half of Indiana should be in freezing rain by morning with sleet farther north of the Ohio River.

As temperatures cool  freezing rain could move south of the Ohio during the afternoon.  Freezing rain should be of little consequence for Louisville during the day.

4).  Thursday evening,  precipitation will diminish quickly with a period of sleet/snow.  Accumulation of snow/ice should be less than one inch.

5).  A significant ice storm is likely over southern Indiana (except counties bordering the Ohio River).

6).  Snow will not be a factor locally.  However, the northern half of Indiana should expect 6″ – 12″ of snow Thursday.

Three Chances for snow ahead

6 P.M. Friday, Jan. 14, 2022

Major upper air disturbance dropping south through central U.S. tonight will continue dropping heavy snows from southern Minnesota to Iowa to northern Missouri.  Some spots (especially central Iowa) could get 8″+.  Snow falls will lessen as the storm loses the upslope surface winds from central Missouri into Arkansas.  Any significant snows from this system will stay west of us, but the Louisville could get snow showers tomorrow morning.  No accumulation expected here.

Meanwhile, the upper air storm is expected to drop all the way to southern Louisiana, drift eastward for awhile, then head up the Appalachians Sunday afternoon and night.  This, too, should become a major snow-maker.  Highest snow totals will ride along and east of the mountains.

As the storm intensifies Sunday, the precipitation shield will expand westward.  This could reach as far west as Louisville, but we’ll be too far west to see anything significant.  Less than an inch, if anything for Louisville.  A little rain could mix in as well. East of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington to Ashland could see several inches.

As the storm accelerates northeast Sunday night, a cold front will sweep across IN/KY early Monday morning.  This will bring us our third chance for snow.  It’ll probably just be some flurries and/or snow showers.  Little, if any, snow expected.

Frustrating!