Monday, July 13, 2:15 P.M.

Just finished a nice post describing current situation, but it was lost in internet-land.  So, a brief capsule.

Storms entering Louisville area have failed to develop as expected (so far).  Quick line of thunderstorms will drop southward through Louisville are between 2:30 and 4:00 P.M.  Heavy rain and strong gusty winds are likely.  A few isolated severe wind gusts are possible, especially east of Louisville (Oldham and Shelby Counties).  Little threat of damaging weather west of I-65.

Monday 1:30 P.M. May 11

A Tornado Watch for areas north of the Ohio River (and a small area of Kentucky near Cincinnati) has been recently issued.  But, a quick look at the radar clearly shows any threat to the Louisville has already moved east of the Louisville.

Models are in good agreement that a process known as “bridging” is occurring over the lower Ohio Valley.  That definitely is a downer for severe storms locally AND could very well mean no rain at all from this system.  That’s another big downer since it looks like we won’t get another serious rain chance until early next week.

Meanwhile, back to bridging – sometimes when a storm system moves northwest of us (the big weekend storm-maker is finally leaving the southern plains) it shifts most of the energy northward toward the Great Lakes while leaving a lot of the major moisture over the south. Then, mid-level winds become westerly and drive a wedge of drier air between the northern energy and the southern moisture.  That’s exactly what’s happening today.

Yes, there is a threat from severe (maybe tornadic) storms with the northern system, but not over southern Indiana.  Best chance of severe storms lies north of Indianapolis.  Meanwhile the southern part of the system now is energy-shy but should still produce thunderstorms later today from Tennessee southward.

So, where does that leave us?  Pretty much in no-man’s land.  Bridging is occurring over southern Indiana and most of Kentucky.  There’s still a chance we’ll see showers or a thunderstorm between 5 and 8 P.M., but the probability has dropped to the 20%-30% range.

Oh well, at least it’ll be cooler tomorrow.

4:45 P.M. Tuesday (April 7)

Line of strong thunderstorms moving toward Louisville has been the source of numerous Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings over the past hour or two.  So far, upper circulation has been noted but no reports of any actual tornadoes.

Radar indications are showing the small line shifting southward while the northern edge is becoming more obscured due to heavy rain.  If this trend continues (it should), the greatest threat to the Louisville area will be just south of the city – northern Hardin, Meade and Bullitt Counties should see strong winds and heavy rains.  A small (weak ) tornado is not out of the question.

Meanwhile, the northern half of the line approaching the Louisville area will lose it’s severe weather threat, but still bring heavy downpours and gusty winds.  All activity should pass east and south of Louisville by 6 P.M.

Note:  4:55 P.M. 

Quick radar update shows line acting as described  above.  Primary severe threat will pass south of Louisville.  Northern area seems to be weakening quickly,  Thus, severe threat for Jefferson Co and Clark and Floyd Cos. will be very low.  Meanwhile, northern Hardin and Bullitt Co. will be hardest hit, maybe with severe winds, but tornado chances are very low.

Thursday evening (April 2)

It’s not too often when hail is the primary ingredient in severe weather around here.  But that’s the way it was this afternoon AND we could easily see another surge or two of additional Hail-makers tonight.  Chances are, though, that hail won’t get as large tonight.  Wind gusts should remain in the “nothing to worry about” range tonight.

Current Severe Storm Watch was issued after the storms were past, so that too is nothing to worry about locally.

A small area of t-storms approaching Evansville should be in our area between about 9 P.M. to Midnight.  These have lost the help of daytime heating, so small hail seems to be the best they can do.

Later tonight, an upper air system becomes more active over the area and another surge of thunderstorms becomes likely from about 5 A.M. to 9 A.M.  In spite of the late-night timing, these storms look capable of another round of hail and some gusty winds.

Additional showers/t-storms appear likely again tomorrow afternoon and evening, but severe weather does not appear to be a threat at that time.

Monday Afternoon (Mar. 9)

The polar jet has disappeared for awhile, so the cold air will stay far north this week.  The Subtropical (Southern) Jet rules the week ahead.  This jet is far weaker than the Polar Jet, but does have its foot in the Gulf of Mexico, so plenty of water is available.

Rains today over the south-central U.S.  will ride the jet slowly northeastward tonight.  Rain should begin after midnight and continue off and on most of the day tomorrow.  As this system is short on energy, no excessive rains are likely.  The NAM puts us around 1.5″ of rain but the GFS pushes the heaviest rains over southern KY.  Although the NAM placed the rain and snow last week almost perfectly, I feel the GFS looks more realistic with the weaker system.

Looks like Wednesday should be dry and warm.  Temperatures should reach at least 60, but any 3-4 hour break in the clouds could push us to the mid to upper 60’s.

Thursday’s weather looks very questionable at this time.  The NAM wants very much to bring another of northward, much like tomorrow.  Meanwhile, the GFS pushes the moisture eastward during the day and then brings some rain northward to Louisville Thursday night into Friday.

Wednesday 11 P.M. (Mar 4)

Just measured the snow in my driveway – 5″- and heard that the airport has already hit 7″ so I guess I’d better try to repair my “blown out of the water (or snow) forecast”.  Models and radar indicates that light snow should continue until 1 or 2 A.M. with only minor accumulations after that.  Snow banding has been heavy just south of Louisville so I’d expect areas from southern Jefferson Co., Bullitt, Spencer, Shelby, Hardin, Breckinridge, Grayson, Franklin, Nelson and Mercer getting Double Digit snows (10″-13″).  Lower totals over the rest of Jefferson Co. and areas north.

We should get about 1″-2″ for the rest of the storm, so 6″ to 10″ looks good over the area north of the counties mentioned above.

You win some, you lose some, but there’s tomorrow to try again.