Saturday, Aug. 31, 2019 4: 30 P.M.
Newest Euro: Keeps Dorian several hundred miles east of Florida (only small problems for the coast. Then, it gets stays off the Carolina coasts and stays east of Cape Hatteras. (more good news)
Newest GFS: stays away from the Florida coast, but probably makes landfall along the North Caroiina coast.
Sat. Aug. 31, 2019 3:30 P.M.
Much better news for Florida!
Over my 50+ years of trying to into harmony with nature, I repeated countless times, “Don’t trust any forecast beyond two days.” We still miss forecasts in days 1 and 2, but that forecast is usually pretty accurate. But when you get beyond 2 days, things change.
Hurricane Dorian forecasts this week have been a prime example. Early this week Dorian was projected to hit somewhere along the Florida east coast. Where? We have many different models looking at the storm (you’ve probably seen the “Spaghetti Diagrams” on tv), but the U.S. showcase is the GFS and the top model in the world is referred as the EURO. Let’s just track those two.
Early in the week, the GFS landfall was predicted to be along the FL/GA border. The euro focused on southern FL. Over the next day or two, the GFS gradually worked its landfall southward to close to the euro position. Yesterday, the GFS still predicted a hit north of Miami then at least a two day journey northward over Florida. That matches the horrific damage projection I mentioned Thursday.
But, yesterday’s morning euro changed! It no longer predicted Dorian to hit Florida. Instead, it would get within a 100 miles or so, then turn slowly northward along the coast and probably not hit land until about North Carolina. That’s VERY important! As far a potential damage goes, there’s a huge difference between a hit and a near miss. Meanwhile, the GFS maintained it’s devastating forecast.
This morning, the GFS caught up to the euro with the “close miss” scenario, but was still putting landfall along the area along the North/South Carolina border. Today’s euro, however, has shifted the storm track farther east, possibly even missing the Outer Banks.
So, what’s going to happen?
Good question. We’re still more than two days away from U.S. coastal interaction and “trends” sometimes do reverse. So, no one from Florida to North Carolina is completely out of danger yet. But, current trends are indicating a much better situation, especially for Florida. As it stands now, Florida’s biggest threat will come from beach erosion. But remember, things change!
GFS vs. euro
Remember earlier this summer when the National Weather Service made a big fuss over it’s introduction of its “new and better” GFS version? The model was designed to oust the euro as world’s best. Dorian has been the first big test for the new GFS. So far, so bad. But, things change. Let’s see how it plays out.
Stuff
The director of the Internal Revenue Service during the mid 1940’s later went to jail for failing to pay his income taxes.
Thursday, August 29, 2019 6 P.M.
Models diverge from National Hurricane Center
First Dorian was forecast to make landfall along the Florida east coast late Saturday. Then early Sunday. Latest forecast is for about Midnight Monday morning. The later it gets, the more problems it’ll create.
Latest GFS products and several other models slow it even more – with one model actually holding off landfall until Tuesday! The delay will allow the storm to sit off the coast (probably SE Florida) for 2-3 days. That could create almost unbelievable shore erosion along the east coast of the northern two-thirds of the east coast of Florida as well as parts of Georgia’s coast.
Hurricane Center is projecting max winds around 130 mph at landfall. That may be a tad on the high side, but the extremely slow motion of the storm combined with the expected winds could wipe out many beaches due to the prolonged storm surge.
Hopefully, things will change over the next few days, but, if not, prepare for the worst for the northern 2/3 of Florida’s east coast. If you have interests along the Gulf (west) Coast of Florida, no big deal. Few, if any, problems there.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change, but right now it’s not looking good.
Tuesday, july 16, 2019
Barry’s remains continue to fall apart. Now looks like we’ll see about 2-4 hours of rain (mostly) during the morning rush hour. Amount of rain now looks as though it’ll be roughly 1/2″ or less.
Tuesday, July 16, 2019 4 P.M.
Barry provides a wet night
Remember all the frightful forecasts about the flooding rains Barry would cause last weekend over Louisiana and surrounding states? Well, the storm did produce the normal heavy rains that a tropical storm does, but the big weather story for the past couple of days has been Barry’s “underperformance.” A huge part of the damage and destruction predicted never happened. That’s the good news. Here’s the bad news: All the familiar meteorologists’s phrases popped up – “We dodged the bullet”, “We got lucky”, and “The storm underperformed”. Ah! The world we live in. All the reasons given imply that the forecast was correct. Thus, it was nature that blew it!
Note to fellow forecasters: Nature does NOT make mistakes, but we do. Isn’t it about time that forecasters actually own up to their mistakes and just admit them rather than trying to push the blame to “the weather”?
Barry’s moisture finally reaches us.
Barry’s remnants are being picked up by a weak upper air system over the midwest that will push eastward tonight and cross the lower Ohio Valley by midday tomorrow. Ahead of this system we’ll see periods of rain and a few thunderstorms tonight. There could be a few lingering light showers tomorrow, but the bulk of the rain will be overnight. Current model trends are for the heaviest rains to occur over the western third of KY and over the eastern third of KY later tonight and tomorrow. Both of those areas could see 1″-2″ rain totals with perhaps higher totals in the mountains. Most of southern IN and central KY should receive up to an inch of rain with a few areas higher if thunderstorms develop.
Break in the heat coming?
For at least a month, the GFS model has been predicting a change in the upper air pattern over North America. The forecast has always been for the shift/change to occur 10 days to two weeks ahead. But “next week’s cooling” has never shown up…yet.
Late last week the forecast was for a transition to the cooler pattern to happen Sun/Mon (July 21-2). Now we’re less than a week away and the forecast hasn’t changed. Could it be “real” this time? It sure looks like it. So, a more comfortable weather pattern should set if next week.
Then, the question becomes whether the cooler pattern will persist for several weeks or just be a minor “blip” in the summer heat. Longer range models keep the cooler pattern in place for most of August. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Stuff:
There’s been a lot of news and celebration this week concerning the 50th anniversary of the Apollo II moon landing. Here’s a tidbit I read this week…
The Apollo II computer system required about 145,000 lines of code. (Today, Facebook runs about 62 million code lines while Google uses more than 2 billion lines!)
Fri. June 20, 2019 5 P.M.
A strong line of strong to severe thunderstorms has moved into southwestern IN and western KY during the past hour. Numerous reports of damaging winds have come from MO/IL. What’s left of the squall line should pass through Jefferson County between 8 and 9 P.M. The storms will be much weaker by that time because it’ll be moving into an area of significantly lower moisture. The air over the western third of KY and extreme SW IN is very humid and primed for severe winds over the next few hours AND extremely heavy rains after midnight. Meanwhile, the really rich moisture will not reach us so storm strength and rain totals will not be excessive.
Some of the lighter rain from this system could linger into the mid-morning hours tomorrow, however.
Update 5:25 P.M.
The line of storms did strengthen, but not much. Line should push across Jefferson County without any significant problems. East of Jefferson County, the line should be stronger, with possibly a severe storm warning or two this evening.
On the positive side, the squall line will actually decrease the strong wind fields for an hour or two
Update 4:45 P.M.
Radar IS showing a definite uptick in strength of the approaching thunderstorms. Between now and 6 P.M., expect a line of strong thunderstorms to move across the metro area. Expect brief heavy downpours, additional strong gust winds and possibly some hail.
4:15 P.M. Thurs., March 14, 2019
Line of storms still crawling eastward
As of 4 P.M. the only strong-to-severe thunderstorm left is racing across northern Clark Co. IN.
Elsewhere, the remaining narrow line of storms still lies west of the Louisville area. No severe activity has been noted in the part of the line headed our way.
The items above have worked about as expected since the weakening trend noticed a couple of hours ago. However, we are not out of the woods yet. One of the two short-term models predicts the line to re-intensify as it approaches I-65 and become strong again east of I-65 for a few hours this evening. That’s the HRRR model. It’s partner, the RAP, does not.
As of this time, local radar does not show any rebuilding… yet. If that continues and the RAP is correct, we should have minimal effects from the squall line. However, we’ll have to watch out for any intensification of the line as that would increase the potential for possible severe wind gusts – especially along and east of I-65.
WOW
I just noticed that the airport reported 61 mph wind gusts earlier this afternoon. Bowman Field’s top gust reached 56 mph. Ft Knox topped out at 53 mph. Mostly likely, if we do get thunderstorms in the next hour or two, they won’t match those winds!
2 P.M. update
Thursday, March 14, 2019
1). Recent data shows the upper and lower atmosphere are beginning to “uncouple.” That means the “sweet spot” of atmospheric conditions that has spawned the severe weather to our west for the past few hours is beginning to fade.
2). The weakening has enabled the line of storms to slow its eastward progression.
3). New “best estimate” for pushing through Louisville Metro is now 4:30 to 6 P.M.
4). Until then, surface winds will continue to be very gusty – up to around 40-45 mph.
5). When thunderstorms arrive, the primary threat will be strong wind gusts – up to 50 mph or so. Tornado threat has lowered.
1 P.M. update
Supercells still forming over west KY into SW IN. Several tornadoes have been reported.
Adjust time of arrival in Louisville area to 3 P.M. – 5 P.M. Otherwise, discussion below still looks okay.
March 14, 2019 Noon
Potentially Damaging Storms late this afternoon
One change since yesterday’s post is the addition of additional moisture into the equation. The very strong wind fields are still in place. Now with the added moisture, it looks like nature’s two primary severe weather producers – dynamics and thermodynamics – will interact for a few hours this afternoon. Luckily for us, the worst should be over before reaching the Louisville area.
Super cells are moving along the Ohio River in western KY and southern IL. Several warnings have already been issued. This area of severe weather will move rapidly northeast into southwest IN and then central IN over the next few hours. It will not affect the Louisville area.
With afternoon heating, additional super cells are likely to form. Models continue to put the primary threat north of the Ohio River. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see additional development over western KY early this afternoon. Any super cell will be capable of producing large hail and tornadoes.
The threat to Louisville area will be between 4 P.M. and 7 P.M. as a scattered to broken line of thunderstorms moves through. Primary threat by that time should be strong winds, but depending upon how things evolve over the next few hours, it could get worse (or better).
Updates to follow…
Wed., March 13, 2019 6 P.M.
Thunderstorms likely tomorrow
This is the third time in recent weeks that the Storm Prediction Center(SPC) has put us in an area of potential severe storms. We are in a “slight risk” region tomorrow.
The first two times, the situation was the same. Very strong dynamics (wind fields) but little support from the thermodynamics (heat and humidity). As the old song goes, it takes two to tango. Both times, the partnership never happened, so the weather didn’t get to dance.
As is common in the early spring, the (almost) same situation exists again. But, there are some differences. Strong dynamics (upper winds, strong surface storm) are once again the prominent feature. But, the dynamics over the midwest/Ohio Valley will be weakening through tomorrow. Northward flow of heat and humidity is currently strong, but it also is expected to weaken.
So, overall the threat for severe storms over KY and southern IN tomorrow looks pretty small. The GFS is weak with storm development while the NAM is a little stronger and more in line with the SPC ideas. However, it keeps storms pretty weak over KY, but does point out a stronger threat over the northern two-thirds of IN tomorrow afternoon.
Here’s my forecast:
Mostly cloudy and breezy tonight…low…58. 70% chance for showers and/or thunderstorms after 4 A.M. continuing into mid-morning. (Rain/storms will be most likely along and west of I-65.)
Another area of showers and thunderstorms will likely cross the area between 4 P.M. and 7 P.M. tomorrow. Gusty winds around thunderstorms, but severe weather threat is quite low. Cooler weather arrives Friday.
Stuff
Tomorrow is Pi Day. 3.14 on the calendar. Use some math, it won’t hurt (much).