Sunday Afternoon

Forecast models have changed little since yesterday – the NAM is still a little warmer than the GFS.  Short term models (RUC, NAM-hi res and others) fall in between, but tend to be closer to the GFS.  The big question remains – how soon will the rain change to snow?  Obviously for snow lovers, the sooner the change, the better.  I am expecting the change-over to occur in Louisville between 7 and 8P.M.  (earlier in southern IN; later south/east of town.  Snow should be wrapping up by 7 to 8 A.M. tomorrow.

Based on the timing above here is my current forecast (5 P.M.)…Louisville metro area should see an accumulation of heavy wet snow between 3″ and 5″ (on grassy areas, less on the roads).  Southern Indiana should see an accumulation of 4″ to 6″ with KY counties and southern counties along and north of the Ohio River from Louisville toward Cincinnati could receive 6″+.  South of the Louisville area, accumulations should diminish rather quickly.  The E’town area should see 1″-2″ with very little at Bowling Green.  East of Louisville, snow totals should also be lower.  For example, Lexington should get around 1″ to 2″.

As mentioned the past few days, this will be a very wet snow as temperatures hovering a degree or two above/below 32 deg.F.  As the snow will be falling at night, it should have little trouble piling up on grassy areas.  However, the roads are still pretty warm.  That plus traffic should greatly reduce accumulations on the roadways.  The roads will probably only get half as much accumulation as the grassy areas.

Stuff

There’s no such thing as bad weather…only varying degrees of good weather.