More snow on the way

Sunday, Feb.16, 2025 4:30 P.M.

As expected, the major flood-producing storm left some snow behind when it moved east. But this was just a teaser. Tuesday night/Wednesday will be the real deal.

We’ve been watching for several days the next storm, now moving into the intermountain west, as a possible snow-maker for us beginning Tuesday night. Model run after model run, the chance for snow and the amount of snow have been slowly inching upward. Currently, I’m estimating a 4″ to 6″ snow accumulation. It’s still two days out, so things could change. This storm won’t be like the one in January. It’s colder this time, so no sleet and rain will mess things up. Just pure fluffy, dry snow!

Stuff

The Academy Awards are coming soon, so I thought I’d give you notice of a record that will NOT be broken this year – longest picture to ever win the Best Film Award. The record is 3 hours 54 minutes! The title holder is ………. Gone With The Wind.

Less rain, more snow

Saturday, Feb.15,2025 5 P.M.

Some small changes in forecast models have lead to some tweaks to my forecast since yesterday. Changes to tonight’s rain forecast have lowered the expected rainfall for us along the Ohio River. Nevertheless, Flood Warnings and Watches still cover Kentucky as a high probability for flooding will continue overnight. The highest rainfall amounts, 4″ – 5″, are likely south of Louisville – roughly 30 miles either side of a line from Fort Campbell to Lexington. Be especially watchful for flooding in that area overnight.

Louisville area is likely to see about 2″-3″ of rainfall – mostly between now and Midnight. Given our already saturated soil, we’ll see plenty of flooded areas as well, just not as bad as southern KY.

Another update to this storm concerns the arrival of colder air tomorrow morning. It nows looks as though we’ll see a minor snow accumulation tomorrow morning. Current indications are for less than an inch accumulation, mostly on grassy areas. Little, if any, on roadways.

The other system we talked about yesterday was about a possible snow-maker Tuesday night. Since then, the GFS model has been slowly increasing the snow potential with this system. There’s still plenty of time for additional changes, but for now, the snow forecast stands at about 3″ – 5″ for the Louisville area!

Stuff

Pres. Trump declares “I am a women. And so are you.” Not exactly in those words, but that was one his early “orders”. (I warned you this regime would be quite funny.)

In his declaration that there are only two sexes – male and female – he specifically mentioned that “male” or “female” would be determined at “conception”. However, the NIH says that at conception, we ALL have female genitalia. After about 6-7 weeks male genitalia appears. So, at conception all humans are female!

Thus, according to his own proclamation, Donald Trump is our FIRST FEMALE PRESIDENT. Sorry Hilary and Kamala, he beat you to it.

Note: I know the edict has been stayed by a judge. I don’t know the current status. I’m not at all surprised that the Pres would order that edict be put in place. That’s just the way he operates. I am, however, amazed that not one of his many MAGATS bowing to his every word even bothered to look it up!

Heavy rain ahead, then snow

+Friday, Feb. 14, 2025 6 P.M

Major storm over the western U.S. will drop southeast, then head northeast once it crosses the Rockies. This storm will bring very heavy rain to much of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys tomorrow and tomorrow night into early Sunday. Models are now projecting about 4″ of rain along the Ohio River with as much as 6+”over central and southeast KY.

Widespread flash and general river flooding is expected over most of KY. If you live in flood-prone areas and many non-flood prone areas, take precautions/ Be especially careful for flooded roads.

We could see some flurries Sunday as cold air arrives as the rain departs and much colder air arrives.

Snow

Another weaker system, similar to the one early this week will cross the region Tuesday. The difference this time is colder air. Rather than wet snow, we’ll see a fluffy dry snow – much better for accumulations. It’s still a long way off, but looks like 2″-3″ could happen.

Think snow!

Weather Service can’t miss this forecast!

Monday, Feb. 10, 2025 6:30 P.M.

Well, what do we have here? Latest National Weather Service briefing on tomorrow’s weather has got everything covered.

1). Winter Storm Warning for our Kentucky area plus Harrison and Floyd Counties in southern Indiana. This “warning” contains wording for 4″ or more of snow and serious travel problems.

2)). Their actual snow forecast for Loiuisville, however, is 2″-3″.

3). Their graphic shows pretty much all of our area with “minor travel problems.” Only areas of hazardous driving are from Frankfort/Lexington and east.

4). So, if we go by their graphics and forecast, we should be under a Winter Weather Advisory. But for some reason they went with a big upgrade to Winter Storm WARNING. Go figure!

Let’s try to make a little sense out of this…

A relatively weak upper disturbance will glide over us tomorrow, its primary focus (rain) over Tennessee. We’ll be on the northern edge of the system with temperatures just cold enough for snow. It’ll be a very wet, sloppy snow with accumulations locally of 1″ mostly north of the city reaching up to 3″ south of the Metro. Little accumulations on roadways, only minor problems. My best guess for Louisville is 1″-2′ .

Snow on the way

Sunday, Feb.9, 2025 11:30 P.M.

Just enough cold air has arrived to set the stage for a rather weak upper air system to give us a good chance for snow Tuesday. At this time it looks like a very sloppy wet snow starting around daybreak Tuesday. Temperature is expected to remain above 32 throughout the snow event. So, traffic problems should be minor with about a 1″-2″ snow accumulation on grassy areas, but not much on roads.

Heavier snow is likely south of Louisville with 2″-4″ possible from E-town to Lexington.

Congrats to the Eagles!

Warming!

Friday, January 24, 2025 5:30 P.M.

A lull in Polar Jet Stream activity over the U.S. will give us a nice break. Temperatures should jump to “above normal” levels by early next week. That should finally get rid of the remaining snow/ice.

It’ll be nice to see what happens when the jet becomes more active again. Sometimes it reforms its previous pattern, which would rebuild the cold regime. Other times, however, it goes back to its early winter pattern. That would essentially bring us an early spring. Currently, the odds favor the return to above normal temperatures and precipitation.

Stuff: Money woes: in today’s world, it costs the U.S. Mint 3 cents to make a penny. A nickel costs 14 cents to produce. (With economics like this, it’s easy to see why our government is so much in debt.)

Stuff 2: About a century ago, American humorist Will Rogers was asked how he kept coming up with new material. Easy, he replied. I just have to read the newspapers every day to find out what’s going on in Washington.

That’s as true now as it was 100 years ago! Unfortunately, the Biden Administration wasn’t good at producing much entertainment. But the tRump gang is a riot of enjoyment. Just an example – the U.S. Presidency has made a total reversal. Our first president was famous for “I can not tell a lie”. Our current president is famous because he can not tell the truth!

The next four years are going to be the “Golden Age” for political humor.

What’s up?

Sunday, January 19, 2025 11 A.M.

Yesterday, I was quite surprised when the NWS predicted 2″ of snow for the Louisville area. There just disn’t seem to be enough moisture/energy to get nearly that much snow here. Since then, the models have dropped any snow estimates to near zero. But, the NWS increased their snow forecast to up to three inches! Not even close to expected reality.

Meanwhile, back in the real world. Louisville still has a chance for some light snow/flurries until early afternoon. Little, or no, accumulation expected.

In spite of the lack of snow, the very cold air will still take over through midweek. It’ll be pretty similar to the cold blast we had after the snow/ice storm a couple of weeks ago.

2″ of snow?

Saturday, January 18, 2025 5:30 P.M.

As colder air pours into the Ohio Valley tomorrow, it should bring along some snow flurries/snow showers. The cold air will be feeding in to a new coastal storm which should produce heavy snow up the Appalachans into the east coast tomorrow night. Forecast models are predicting that this developing storm will spread heavy snows ( 4″ plus) into far southeast KY with lesser amounts north and west as far as the Ohio River.

The “official” forecast is for a 2″ snowfall. That seems pretty good for the Lexington area, but here. Less than an inch looks better for Louisville area.

Stuff

Tomorrow could be the last day of democracy for our dear republic. Enjoy it while we still have it! Ben Franklin warned us about this over 240 years ago. Something about learning from the past so as not to make the same mistakes over again. Monarch vs. autocrat…doesn’t make much difference, does it?

How much?

Friday, January 10, 2025 1:30 P.M.

Light snow continues across the area. Bands of heavier snow are affecting two areas – southwestern IN northeast toward central IN – and southern KY. Forecast models pick up this trend and maintain it and expect the heaviest accumulations in those areas. Meanwhile, the region between about 50 miles north and south of the Ohio River are predicted to remain in the lighter snow.

Most recent model runs are projecting snow accumulations along the river to be in the 1.5″ to 3″ range. My forecast yesterday was 2″ – 4″. I’ll stick with that for now, but the 4″ inch total is probably a little high for Louisville. Most of the area should be around 2″-3″. Any 4″ totals should be south of Jefferson County.

Snow will become heavier during afternoon rush hour then fade away by 7-9 P.M.

NOTE: Snowfall is not the same as snow accumulation. Interestingly, we forecast “accumulation” but then report “snow fall” publicly. For instance, this past weekend’s snow/ice storm was reported as 10.5″. However, accumulation is recorded but not generally reported. Accumulation reached 7″ during Monday’s snow, but by evening it was down to 6″.

More snow on the way

Thursday, January 9, 2025 4 :30 P.M.

While we’re still cleaning up from Sunday’s storm, another one looms on the western horizon. No concerns this time with sleet and freezing rain, so it simplifies the forecast somewhat – just snow. That primary question still remains…how much? I’m hopeful I’ll do better this time.

We’re dealing with a similar system again. A large pocket of energy has dropped south of the main jet stream over the western U.S. These so-called “cut off lows” usually drift slowly eastward and eventually rejoin the primary flow. Since they migrate from the southwest, they have a good source of moisture available when they cross the southern Rockies and head northeast – as we saw last weekend.

Luckily, there are some differences this time. 1). Last week’s storm dragged a huge mound of cold air into the area east of the Rockies. 2). That cold mound will force the new system to stay south -mainly along the Gulf Coast. 3). That will keep the primary moisture energy fields from reaching this far north. 4). The primary axis of the jet stream flow with this system will be from northeast to southwest. This situation is called a positive tilt trough. Positive troughs have much less energy to use than negative ones.

This system will still produce an area of snow/sleet/freezing rain, but this time the focus will be across parts of Texas and Arkansas at first, then move east over Tennessee and the northern parts of the Gulf Coastal states.

We’ll be on the northern side of the system and will be in an area of classic “overrunning.” Some warmer, moist air will be slowly gliding over the colder air mass we’re in. The result will be about 8-10 hours of slowly accumulating light snow. Snow should begin shortly after Noon and wrap up before Midnight. I expect Louisville to have a 2″ to 4″ accumulation (less on highways). Snow accumulations will be lower north of I-64; slightly higher south of the Interstate.