5 P.M. update

Friday, Jan. 28, 2022  5 P.M.

Heaviest snow showers locally have been over the western three-fourths of Jefferson Co. KY.  Both SDF and LOU have reported heavy snow much of the past hour.  In IN, Floyd and Harrison Co. seem to have picked up some quick accumulations.

Heaviest snow between 5 -6 P.M. will move into Bullitt Co. and Spencer Co.  Jefferson County (especially the southern half) will continue to see moderate to heavy snow showers.

Exciting few hours ahead

Fri. Jan 28, 2022  3 P.M.

A small, fast moving and potent upper disturbance will race across our area from now until about 7 P.M.

Most of the area will see snow showers and flurries with accumulations up to one inch.  However, a narrow swath of much heavier snow showers, about 25-40 miles across, will be embedded in the wider snow area.  Forecast models are currently projecting the axis of heavier snow to run from southern Indiana (west of I-65)  through Louisville metro then southsoutheastward  through KY.

Models project 2″-4″ of quick hitting snow squalls in narrow lines within this snow swath.  Meanwhile spots only a few miles from the heavy snow will see very little.  Wouldn’t it be cool to be lucky enough yourself in the middle of the action?  Unfortunately, most of us will be in the “near-miss” category.

Little, if any, snow tonight

4 P.M.  Wed., Jan. 19, 2022

Short term models continue to push tonight’s area of accumulating snow south.  Latest GFS isn’t out yet, but the trend is clear from the NAM, Nam HiRes, RUC and HRRR.  Louisville area should see possibly a dusting (less than a half inch) (two models) or nothing (two models).  So the pickings are pretty lean for snow lovers locally.

It’s a different story, however, for southern and eastern KY.  Wide area south and east of a line from southern Hardin County to  Frankfort to Ashland will see accumulations from 2″ to 4″.  Some spots will probably top 4″.

Louisville appears destined to see just a short period of snow.  Rain-to-snow changeover should happen between 6 and 7 P.M.  Any significant precipitation will end shortly thereafter.  That should add up to a dusting, at best.

Seasonably cold weather air takes over tonight and should last through Friday.

Stuff

Of every 15 potential cancer treatment drugs submitted to the FDA for approval, about 14 never make it out of the testing phase.

Little snow for Louisville area

Noon  Wed. Jan. 19, 2022

The GFS still has about a half inch of snow for us (Louisville area) while four other models now agree than any significant snow will once again fall over central KY.  Looks like the area from Bowling Green to Lexington to Ashland is in for another 4″+.

More later.

Snow chances fading

Three Chances for snow ahead

6 P.M. Friday, Jan. 14, 2022

Major upper air disturbance dropping south through central U.S. tonight will continue dropping heavy snows from southern Minnesota to Iowa to northern Missouri.  Some spots (especially central Iowa) could get 8″+.  Snow falls will lessen as the storm loses the upslope surface winds from central Missouri into Arkansas.  Any significant snows from this system will stay west of us, but the Louisville could get snow showers tomorrow morning.  No accumulation expected here.

Meanwhile, the upper air storm is expected to drop all the way to southern Louisiana, drift eastward for awhile, then head up the Appalachians Sunday afternoon and night.  This, too, should become a major snow-maker.  Highest snow totals will ride along and east of the mountains.

As the storm intensifies Sunday, the precipitation shield will expand westward.  This could reach as far west as Louisville, but we’ll be too far west to see anything significant.  Less than an inch, if anything for Louisville.  A little rain could mix in as well. East of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington to Ashland could see several inches.

As the storm accelerates northeast Sunday night, a cold front will sweep across IN/KY early Monday morning.  This will bring us our third chance for snow.  It’ll probably just be some flurries and/or snow showers.  Little, if any, snow expected.

Frustrating!

Model reversal

Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022  5:30 P.M.

Models still far apart

Yesterday, the GFS was predicting a big snow Sunday while the Blend of models was predicting little to no snow.  Today’s the Nam’s forecast reaches out to Sunday and offers another opinion.

Today, the GFS takes the storm considerably farther south before heading north along the Appalachians.  That means for us:  1″-2″ Sunday.

The BLEND continues on it’s southern track and a little east along the mountains.  For us: little, if any, snow.  If yes to snow, up to an inch.

The latest NAM has the storm track a little north and west of the GFS prediction.  Projection for us:  2″ – 4″ starting late Saturday.

Tomorrow: check back to see if the models get any closer to agreement.

Stuff

About 75 to 80 shark bites are reported around the world each year.  In New York City, however, roughly TEN times more bites are reported of people biting people.

Snowy weekend?

Substantial Snowfall possible

Wed., Jan. 12, 2022  4:30 P.M.

GFS forecast this morning generates 8+ inches of snow for Louisville from late Saturday through Sunday.  Other models have wide-ranging solutions to a developing storm over the region – from mostly rain to rain/snow mix to just a little snow.

With many complexities working into various model’s ideas, it’s far too early to know how this system will ultimately come together.  But it will be fun watching the next few days as various ideas come and go.  The model BLEND (a combination of many U.S. models with others from Canada, Europe and Australia) currently predicts 2.5 to 3″ from this system.  BUT, the same model predicts ZERO measurable precipitation during that time.  See how confusing this stuff can get?

Meanwhile, as we move on, more and more clarity should come into view.  At least I hope so.  Personally I’m hoping the GFS comes through – as it often does.

La Nina

As mentioned a week or so back, the “unloading” of cold arctic air from Canada is well underway.  As usual in La Nina winters, the bulk of the cold air has moved far more east than south,  We’ve seem some below normal temperatures, but our neighbors over the Great Lakes and northeastern states have seem some really cold weather.  This trend is showing signs of lasting another two weeks or so.  But the warm part of La Nina should return in February.

Stuff

In Gainesville, Georgia, it is illegal to eat fried chicken with a fork.

Snow Thursday

Little change since yesterday

11 P.M. Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2022

Model outlooks are little changed since yesterday.  The GFS predicts the lowest accumulation with the NAM products and model blend about an inch to two higher.

GFS – 1″-2″

Nam- 2-3″

Blend has 2.3″ for Louisville

Snow should begin around 11 A.M. and end before 6 P.M.

My thoughts:  Many times I’ve wished the NAM would be correct, but most of the time the GFS turns out better.  So I’d say Louisville area 1-2″ with increasing snowfalls south and east.  Could top 8″ over southeast KY.

Think snow!

La Nina winter working normally

Just like it’s supposed to be.

Tuesday, January 4, 2022

El Ninos get most of the attention, but little sister (La Nina) can step to the plate just as well.  Both systems can be traced back centuries and they tend to operate in irregular cycles.  Over a cycle of decades we’ll see long periods where El Ninos are more frequent and stronger than La Ninas.  One of those started fading about 5-10 years ago.  We’re now in a cycle where the La Ninas dominate.

We are currently in a moderate La Nina phase.  During a La Nina time, the jet stream over the Paciific is pushed northward so that heavy winter precipitation hits northern California, Oregon and Washington while leaving southern California and Arizona very dry. Example: snowfall in Oregon in December set a record high.

After the west coast, the jet stream generally runs along the U.S.- Canadian border before dipping into the northeast.  That was the story for December as most of the U.S. had a very warm December.  Meanwhile, Canada was very cold compared to normal.

But, as the cold dome builds to our north, it eventually has to break under the jet stream and head south.  Right on schedule, that’s what is happening now.  The cold dome is breaking free.  The past couple of days have actually produced below normal temperatures.  And another lobe of even colder air will arrive tomorrow.  That should keep temperatures below freezing Thursday and maybe Friday.

In addition, a weak disturbance will form along the cold front to our south and spread some snow as far north as southern Indiana.  The water content will be very low, but with temperatures in the 20’s light snow should be able to “fluff up” to about 1-2″ Thursday afternoon and evening.

When the cold air dips out of Canada, history shows that the below normal temperatures and snow chances increase for two-three weeks.  So look for unseasonable cold weather into mid January.  By that time Canada has lost most of its excessive cold dome.  Rebuilding begins up north, and abnormally warm weather returns to much of the U.S.  Translation:  February will be very warm.  However, often a La Nina winter ends with another round of the cold air escaping Canada in early March.

Such is life in an La Nina winter!

Editorial time

Opinion piece on an Opinion piece

Sunday’s Courier Journal’s Forum Section contained an article entitled “Now is the time to act on climate change.”  The second half of the article contained useful ideas that individuals can do to help mitigate some effects of climate change.  Idea one suggests that as a community, we provide greater availability of air conditioners and cooling centers.  Left unsaid was the need for similar resources for extreme cold weather.  That’s important too.

The second idea is to increase tree canopy.  This is nothing new.  Meteorologists (and others) have been advocating this for decades.

Ideas three and four call for what essentially amounts to a “weather” Neighborhood Watch program during times of adverse weather.  It’s always good to look out for neighbors and friends.  Also, joining like-minded groups of people to push for ideas you agree upon.

Idea five I will address later.

The first half of the article, however, contains some “information” I found highly disturbing.  That’s why I’m writing this response.

The article starts with a real whopper – To prevent catastrophic devastation to our earth, we must act now.  Wow, where did that come from.  Unfortunately, the seed for that idea has been planted by a United Nations group named the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC for short.

First, and this is very important, IPCC reports are not scientific.  They are dictated and approved by the UN members’ governments, not scientists.  They present various scenarios as to what the future climate may look like.  The highlight of these reports (the latest, AR6 just came out), is to project earth’s future temperature by 2100 based on their extensive collection of global climate models. Reports from the 1990’s had projections that ran 2 to 4 degrees C warmer than observed temperatures.  By the 2014 AR5 report the composite average of over 100 models was 1.5-3 C warmer than real data.

Almost all the fantastic reports on what might happen in the future issued since 2014 are based on the IPCC’s worst case scenario. Back in the early days of weather/climate modelling, a phrase developed which we usually referred to as GI,GO.  It’s longer version is “garbage in, garbage out.”  The new AR6 report issued last month, using all new models, is actually warmer than the 2014 report.

The bottom line is this.  Climate computer models do not work!  And that negates all the horror stories we’ve been fed for years.  GI,GO.

Paragraph two says the IPCC tells us we have seven years to get our act together.  That’s just not going to happen!  Carbon dioxide emissions are going to keep increasing for the foreseeable future.  That’s thanks to China and India.  Remember, the U.S. gave China “permission” to keep increasing carbon until 2030.  India has no restrictions and will probably exceed our emissions by 2030.  Luckily, the IPCC “prediction” is based on garbage.

Skip to paragraph four.  “In fact, heat is the top cause of weather-related deaths in the U.S.” In fact, that statement is not a fact.  It simply is not true.  The CDC checks every death certificate issued in the U.S.  Weather-related deaths are tabulated.  In recent years, deaths created by cold are at least double heat-related deaths.  Worldwide, data suggests that over 5 million heat/cold deaths occur each year…90% are caused by cold.

Paragraph five states that our “exposure to extreme heat is becoming far more frequent.”  A quick look at climate records shows that over the past century U.S. “heat waves” have become slightly less frequent.  For sites with continuous records dating back to at least 1900, the data show that the 1930’s produced more all-time high temperature records than any other decade.

Paragraph five goes on to blame some of this year’s weather disasters on “climate change.”  That’s the accepted narrative, but some interesting points should push the conversation in another direction – The Law of Unintended Consequences.

First, the West Coast fires.  One common statement is about record amounts of acreage having been burned.  Compared to modern times, that is true.  But acres consumed now pales in comparison to forest fire destruction in the late 1800’s.  What’s the difference?  Us.  In the late 1800’s hardly anyone lived in the forests.  When fires broke out, they were allowed to just burn themselves out.  Nature’s method worked well for millions of years.  Now, over a million people live in the western forests.  Smokey the Bear says “Only you can prevent forest fires.”  How correct he is.  90% of U.S. forest fires are started by us humans.  Need I say more?

Second, Hurricane Ida.  For eons, the Mississippi River created a buffer zone to help alleviate erosion from coastal storms.  The river frequently created new channels to spread and accumulate silt across a wide area now known as the Louisiana Bayou.  Thick, dense vegetation is a feature of bayous.  It’s more diffuse than the barrier islands of the east coast, but has borne the brunt of hurricane forces to help protect Louisiana far back in time.  Then, along comes humans.  The Mississippi became an import element in commerce and trade.  It was so important that changing paths could not be allowed.  So a levee was constructed to confine the river in a never-changing channel.  Human business was happy; nature wasn’t.  Since then, the bayou has lost its source of life- supporting silt.  Erosion continues, replenishment stops.  As a result the bayou has been slowly disappearing.  It no longer acts as a strong barrier buffer.  Along comes Ida.  Man muddles; nature laughs.

Later in the opinion piece we encounter a really strange statement – “climate change worsens COVID-19 symptoms…”  As far as I know, SARS-COV-2  (COVID-19) was discovered late in 2019.  So, it and its variants have been around for less than 2 years.  Covid is a creature of our current climate; it hasn’t experienced any “climate change.”  Covid symptoms are bad enough.  Let’s not blame the climate for making them worse.  (Note: If you look at Covid-19 data, you will see that the countries with the highest percent of population catching the disease are in temperate regions (four seasons), not in the hotter tropics.

Finally, back to the fifth idea to help the earth – Equip and educate.  We are well equipped to prepare for a continued slowly warming climate.  Infrastructure is the key.

Programs such as rebuilding our highway system, hardening the power grid (just ask TX and CA), building sea walls, and strengthening our RELIABLE power production facilities (wind and solar need not apply) are essential for our future.  Our best bet for energy in the future is nuclear.  Admittedly, that’s a tough sell in the U.S.  Second best bet is natural gas, an industry our current President is trying to kill.

The current philosophy in the U.S.  is centered on costly, and unreliable, wind and solar. All we have to do is look to Europe to see how a reliance on wind and solar is working out.  I doubt we’ll learn anything from the European experience.  If we continue along the road to relying on non-carbon energy, we’re in big trouble within the next decade.  Maybe enough trouble that we’ll stop hyping global warming for awhile.

Oh, yes!  That last item – educate.  I’m all in favor of climate education.  When are we going to start?

 

Tom Wills