Monday, November 10, 2025 Noon
Snow showers are currently moving through western and southern Jefferson County. These may leave a temporary minor accumulation on grassy areas, but will move quickly southeast away from us. Elsewhere in the Metro, nothing but flurries until mid-afternoon. No road problems expected.
Stuff:
Keep the NO KINGS movement going! Let’s shoot for ten million next time.
Friday, May 16, 2025 4:30 PM
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT
Storm system has been developing as expected. Numerous reports of extreme winds (more than 74 mph) and/or large hail (2″ diameter or more) have been concentrated mostly over SE MO. No tornado reports so far (4:20 PM) although the threat still remains.
As expected, the system appears to be organizing into a large line as it crosses the Mississippi River and races eastward at 50-55 miles per hour. One short-term model (RAP) is hinting at two squall lines forming – one ahead of the cold front and another with the front. In general, the 8 to 10 PM arrival time still looks pretty good. However, if the two thunderstorm lines idea works out, the first one could be in the 7-8 PM time frame with the second one about 9-10 PM.
Stay alert to local media for any warnings that may be issued.
Friday, may 16, 2025 12:30 PM
Situation hasn’t changed much since yesterday. Todays heating has been delayed by morning rain/clouds, but we’ll be into sunshine and strong southerly winds soon. That’ll be enough to still put us under a strong severe storms threat this evening. Best estimate looks like 8-10 PM tonight.
Currently, soon-to-be severe thunderstorms are firing over northern Arkansas into southern Missouri. This area will gradually merge into a line or two of severe thunderstorms and move rapidly eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Individual supercells will be possible ahead of the actual cold front pushing the squall line eastward. These supercells should be especially dangerous. Luckily for us, the most likely place for these isolated storms will occur from near the Mississippi River into West KY, southern IL and southern IN. It’s expected that these supercells will merge into lines and weaken a bit before reaching us.
Again, expect a line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms to pass through the Louisville area between about 8 to 10 PM.
Thursday, May 15, 2025 6 PM
Atmosphere is setting up for a big day of severe weather tomorrow and tomorrow night. Forecasts point to a major outbreak starting tomorrow midday over Arkansas, MO, IL with all severe categories moderate to high. That outbreak will consolidate into one (or more) squall lines as it moves toward IN/KY tomorrow evening – roughly 8 PM to Midnight.That’s not the only problem – atmosphere also favors individual “discrete supercells” ahead of the cold front over western IN/KY tomorrow afternoon. If these develop, they can be very damaging. Supercells in the warm, humid air mass ahead of a cold front can be very dangerous.Meanwhile, as the warm air mass works its way northward tonight, we could see some non-severe thunderstorms this evening and again toward morning.
5:45 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues with greatest threat headed over South Central Indiana – at least 30+ miles north of the Ohio River.
Farther south, 30 miles north and south of the River, the expected intensity increase has failed to fire. Line of storms headed toward Metro Louisville should remain mostly (if not entirely) below “severe” limits. They should produce strong, gusty winds and heavy rain between 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM.
3 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025
The Severe Storm Prediction Center has placed about half of our area into a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM tonight. The SPC is concerned about a fast-moving storm cluster coming from SE MO up the Ohio Valley for the next few hours as the storm system is expected to strengthen.
Judging from the current situation, the greatest threat here should be from about 7PM until 9 PM. Greatest threat is gusty winds which could reach up to 70 mph in a few isolated areas. This is not expected to be a widespread damaging system.
The Watch area basically includes Kentucky counties along the Ohio River and all of southern Indiana from western KY/IN to just east of I-65.
Interesting note: The SPC issues a Watch area as a large rectangle placed over a geographic area. This is primarily for aviation interests. Local forecast offices are allowed to “fine tune” the area for their local regions. Today we’re operating with a split decision.
The SPC Watch area includes Jefferson, Oldham, Bullitt and Hardin Counties. However, Louisville’s forecast office does NOT include these four counties.
That’s a good indication as to how “marginable” this situation really is.
Sunday, March 30, 2025 8 P.M.
Line of storms approaching rapidly has strengthened over past two hours. This was expected, but something else seems to be developing…a process called bridging. What once was a solid line of severe storms is developing a hole in the middle. Thus, stronger storms moving northeast in Indiana, then a rather disorganized break in the storms along the Ohio River followed by another line of strong storms from western KY southwestward. This line is moving our way about 50 miles per hour and in our area by 9 PM and off to our east by 10PM.
Current indications are that this “bridge” will continue along the Ohio. Thus, the strongest storms are expected to occur in Indiana NORTH of us and the other batch will remain SOUTH of us.
We’ll see some, probably minor, damage locally, but it’ll worse north and south of the Metro area.
Sunday, March 30, 2025 5 P.M.
Active thunderstorm day underway over the Mississippi Valley at this time. Area of greatest concern currently stretches from northern Indiana into southern Michigan. Major winds have been the biggest threat this afternoon with gusts from 70 – 85 mph reported. Storm Prediction Center says the extreme winds will continue over lower Michigan several more hours.
Meanwhile, the southern part of this system has been weaker today, but is about to get a shot of upper air energy. A cold front moving eastward is expected to intensify with the added energy. That’s where our area comes into play. This front, along with strong thunderstorms, will be moving rapidly eastward this evening, The front/storms should push through the Metro area between 9 and 11 P.M. tonight.
Just how strong the line of thunderstorms will be is an open question at this time. At least a few damaging wind gusts appear likely. But will they be isolated or widespread? Too early to tell at this point.
Keep your “weather eye” open tonight…at least until Midnight. The expected sunshine for the next few hours is not a good sign.
Second Threat
At this time, longer range forecast models are predicting several storm systems to pass through the Ohio Valley from Wednesday night into Saturday. Currently the consenses is an amazing SEVEN inches of rain during that time frame! As I’ve said probably thousands of times…it’s far too early for an accurate forecast. It this time, let’s just say there is a potential for some serious flooding late this week.
Serious Stuff.
We’ve been bombarded this week with stories about the “war bombing” leak to The Atlantic. The President and his merry band of MAGATs have been predictably repeating the same script…”not serious, nothing sensitive, nothing classified.” Yes, yes, the same old pile of BS keeps getting recycled. A simple question…what do you think would have been the reaction if General Eisenhower had given the British press his “war plan” on June 5, 1944?
This incident brings to mind stories from Trump 1.0. And since we are getting close to the annual “betting seminars” leading to Derby Day, it’s probably time for a repeat. Q. What is the safest bet you can make? A. When Donald Trumps’ mouth is open, he’s lying.
Wed. March 19, 2025 6:30 PM
Today’s outlooks have been very “iffy.” The biggest IF has been moisture…citing a critical need to have dew points reach the mid 50’s. They have reached that level in western KY, but so far activity has remained on the weaker side. Dew points here are only around 50.
Thus even if storms grow over western KY, they will be moving into drier air as they approach later tonight. Very little, if any, severe weather is likely near here as storms pass by between 10 PM and Midnight.
Wed. Feb. 19, 2025 5 P.M.
Even colder air is moving over us setting up a very cold Thursday, but we will see easing temperatures as soon as Friday. A small upper level disturbance is escorting the cold air and could squeeze out a few snow showers between 10 P.M. and 2 A.M. Little, if any, accumulation is expected. Morning wind chills are expected to be near zero.