Monday, Dec. 1, 2025 6:30 P.M.

It’s been fun today to watch how two different systems were going merge and what that means for us.

First, a dying storm has been producing mostly 2″-4″+ snows over Missouri and southern Illinois. That system will produce 2-4″ snows over southern IN tonight – starting about 30 miles (or so) north of the Ohio River.

That energy is now shifting southward to hook up with a new storm coming northeast from Texas. That will combine to create a large snow/rain system spreading NE overnight. Snow will break out around midnight and move rapidly NE. It’ll leave 2-4″ of snow over southern KY into West Virginia overnight. Once again heaviest snow area will begin about 30 miles (or so) south of the river.

Models strongly support a weak “dry” slot moving along the river. The result: Louisville area likely to see 1″ to 2″ of snow. Probably closer to the 1″. Accumulations mostly on grassy areas – don’t expect too much on roads.

Inside the Watterson, accumulations should be less than 1″. Heaviest snow time – 2-5 A.M.

Recent Changes

Sunday, November 30, 2025 6 P.M.

For many months, the U.S. long range forecast models have followed the usual trends for a “La Nina” winter. We are currently in weak La Nina conditions and are expected to slowly rise into the neutral range early next year. La Nina status is when sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific are below normal…as they are now.

A La Nina winter pattern usually starts as most of Canada with colder than normal temperatures while the U.S. has above normal warmth. The major storm track tends to run along the warm/cold boundary. Then, in January, the cold Canadian air drops slowly southward into the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains. At the same time the primary storm track also drops south. By February, the colder than normal air masses and storm track drop even more southward. So the result is often called a” Late” Winter with most of the stormiest conditions during the latter half of the season,

Not this year! Starting early in November, the longer range models abruptly changed. Basically, the December forecast changed from warm to cold. That colder-than-normal outlook has locked in for December. The cold pattern warms a bit by January and back to neutral-to-warm temperatures by Febraury.

That’s a complete reversal of the La Nina cycle.

My personal thoughts generally agree with the new data. Look forward to a cold December with numerous chances for snow and rain. Then temperatures ease (compared to normal) in January but still pretty high levels of snow chances. More temperature easing in Feb.

Monday, November 10, 2025 Noon

Snow showers are currently moving through western and southern Jefferson County. These may leave a temporary minor accumulation on grassy areas, but will move quickly southeast away from us. Elsewhere in the Metro, nothing but flurries until mid-afternoon. No road problems expected.

Stuff:

Keep the NO KINGS movement going! Let’s shoot for ten million next time.

Thursday, May 15, 2025 6 PM

Atmosphere is setting up for a big day of severe weather tomorrow and tomorrow night. Forecasts point to a major outbreak starting tomorrow midday over Arkansas, MO, IL with all severe categories moderate to high.  That outbreak will consolidate into one (or more) squall lines as it moves toward IN/KY tomorrow evening – roughly 8 PM to Midnight.That’s not the only problem – atmosphere also favors individual “discrete supercells” ahead of the cold front over western IN/KY tomorrow afternoon.  If these develop, they can be very damaging.  Supercells in the warm, humid air mass ahead of a cold front can be very dangerous.Meanwhile, as the warm air mass works its way northward tonight, we could see some non-severe thunderstorms this evening and again toward morning.

5:45 PM Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues with greatest threat headed over South Central Indiana – at least 30+ miles north of the Ohio River.

Farther south, 30 miles north and south of the River, the expected intensity increase has failed to fire. Line of storms headed toward Metro Louisville should remain mostly (if not entirely) below “severe” limits. They should produce strong, gusty winds and heavy rain between 6:30 PM and 8:30 PM.

Sunday, March 30, 2025 8 P.M.

Line of storms approaching rapidly has strengthened over past two hours. This was expected, but something else seems to be developing…a process called bridging. What once was a solid line of severe storms is developing a hole in the middle. Thus, stronger storms moving northeast in Indiana, then a rather disorganized break in the storms along the Ohio River followed by another line of strong storms from western KY southwestward. This line is moving our way about 50 miles per hour and in our area by 9 PM and off to our east by 10PM.

Current indications are that this “bridge” will continue along the Ohio. Thus, the strongest storms are expected to occur in Indiana NORTH of us and the other batch will remain SOUTH of us.

We’ll see some, probably minor, damage locally, but it’ll worse north and south of the Metro area.

Sunday, March 30, 2025 5 P.M.

Active thunderstorm day underway over the Mississippi Valley at this time. Area of greatest concern currently stretches from northern Indiana into southern Michigan. Major winds have been the biggest threat this afternoon with gusts from 70 – 85 mph reported. Storm Prediction Center says the extreme winds will continue over lower Michigan several more hours.

Meanwhile, the southern part of this system has been weaker today, but is about to get a shot of upper air energy. A cold front moving eastward is expected to intensify with the added energy. That’s where our area comes into play. This front, along with strong thunderstorms, will be moving rapidly eastward this evening, The front/storms should push through the Metro area between 9 and 11 P.M. tonight.

Just how strong the line of thunderstorms will be is an open question at this time. At least a few damaging wind gusts appear likely. But will they be isolated or widespread? Too early to tell at this point.

Keep your “weather eye” open tonight…at least until Midnight. The expected sunshine for the next few hours is not a good sign.

Second Threat

At this time, longer range forecast models are predicting several storm systems to pass through the Ohio Valley from Wednesday night into Saturday. Currently the consenses is an amazing SEVEN inches of rain during that time frame! As I’ve said probably thousands of times…it’s far too early for an accurate forecast. It this time, let’s just say there is a potential for some serious flooding late this week.

Serious Stuff.

We’ve been bombarded this week with stories about the “war bombing” leak to The Atlantic. The President and his merry band of MAGATs have been predictably repeating the same script…”not serious, nothing sensitive, nothing classified.” Yes, yes, the same old pile of BS keeps getting recycled. A simple question…what do you think would have been the reaction if General Eisenhower had given the British press his “war plan” on June 5, 1944?

This incident brings to mind stories from Trump 1.0. And since we are getting close to the annual “betting seminars” leading to Derby Day, it’s probably time for a repeat. Q. What is the safest bet you can make? A. When Donald Trumps’ mouth is open, he’s lying.