Latest radar shows single remaining strong t-storm cell in area – just north of the Ohio River in southern Clark Co. Storm is moving northeast along the river – probably reaching far NE Jefferson Co. and Oldham Co. by 4:50. Strong, gusty winds possible. Otherwise, nothing to be concerned about on metro area.
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Today is another situation where we have a very fine line between strong thunderstorms and a marginally “severe” storm or two. Nothing really to worry about as the situation just can’t quite get its act together.
Large trough dropping into the midwest will slowly push eastward tonight and tomorrow. A strong short wave disturbance is rotating around this trough and aiming for the south. The northern halves of AL and MS as well as western TN should see a significant severe storm outbreak this evening and tonight.
Meanwhile, a much weaker short wave is moving over western KY right now and is generating a cluster of showers and thunderstorms as it moves toward us. Look for this rain to reach Louisville about 4 P.M. and depart before 7 P.M. Some of the embedded thunderstorms could be strong but should not reach into the “severe” range. (Although with the trend of recent years for the NWS declaring almost any strong thunderstorm “severe”, I would not be surprised if a warning or two is issued.) Keep in mind that a 58 mph wind (the lower limit of severe storms) will do a lot of damage. Compared to a 50 mph wind gust (which doesn’t do a lot of damage, a 58 mph wind gust has about 35% MORE FORCE!
Later tonight, a cold front will cross IN into KY. This front should become very active in the next few hours. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this front, especially over western and south central Indiana from about 6 P.M. to 9 P.M. EDT. The southern end of this area will reach the Louisville between 9 P.M. until midnight. No severe weather weather is expected with this line. In fact, there’s a reasonable chance it’ll die out before reaching us.
Easter Sunday, 8 P.M.
Severe storm WATCH for the area – looks like the forecasters at SPC were a little bored and tried to get a little excitement in today’s weather.
But the models are showing any instability to grind down to near zero by 9 P.M. AND since the major line of showers/t-storms won’t arrive in Louisville area until after 9 P.M., any threat for severe thunderstorms is close to zero. Just a few hours of nice rain to help bring us our April showers.
Happy Easter.
Thursday, March 10, 2016
Quite rainy day…most of Jefferson County seems to be nearing (or over) the one inch mark now (5:45 P.M.) with more due until about Midnight. After that, weak cool front drops across the area and pushes the rain eastward for tomorrow. But the upper air system looks like it’ll reload tomorrow and return the on-and-off showers for Saturday through Monday.
Next week figures to remain mild, but it should’t be nearly as wet.
El Nino
The current El Nino is beginning to wind down, but should not drop to “normal” status until this summer. But, historically, a strong El Nino brings a La Nina in its wake. So, beginning later this year, our Earth is likely to see below normal temperatures setting in and lasting for a year or two. According to satellite data, February was Earth’s warmest month (during the satellite era). The previous record was set during another strong El Nino year – 1998.
El Nino precipitation
El Nino weather patterns are known to bring above normal precipitation totals to the southwestern U.S. Drought-stricken California was greatly anticipating plenty of rain and snow this winter. Until last weekend the winter rainy season hadn’t lived up to expectations. Now, after last weekend’s heavy rains put a lot of water into the state’s reservoirs, there is hope that many of the recent water restrictions may be eased this year.
Even better news is that at least two more significant storms appear headed toward the Golden State over the next week to 10 days. If they both make it, California’s water situation will look better than it has for many years!
Comic relief
Saw a headline recently, “Researchers now say that man’s influence on climate may date back to the 1930’s. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$…yes, that’s your hard-earned money (tax dollars) being wasted on insanity. The headline gave me a good laugh, but in the larger picture, it should have made me cry. It’s sad, really, about all the money being wasted over the “climate change” agenda.
The “problem”, if you want to call it that, is nothing new. Ever since humans learned to cultivate crops and to live in communities, we have been inadvertently altering our climate. As our population has grown to over seven billion, the change we bring to our Earth has been expanding. Carbon dioxide is just a drop in the bucket compared to the overall picture. As climate has changed in the past, humans have acclimated, or adapted, to the new circumstances. In spite of the “stories” we’re being told by many so-called leaders, Earth’s climate is NOT broken, so it can’t be FIXED. It just changes, and so must we.
Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016
As the major surface low pressure area moved right over the area this morning, we actually got a break from the heavy rain and even saw some sunshine with temperatures in the upper 50’s for an hour or two. Then, as the low moved northeast, the colder air on it’s backside dropped temperatures in a hurry…and the rain resumed.
But, we’ve seen the worst of it now. Winds will start decreasing this evening and the rain, possibly changing to snow, will be diminishing between 7 P.M. and 9 P.M. After 9 P.M., light rain showers and/or snow flurries will be scattered around the area during the night. Whether we have rain or snow showers doesn’t make any difference. If it’s snow, it’ll melt on impact so there’ll be no accumulation – so it essentially makes a situation I like to call “white rain.” It has the same impact as rain.
Temperatures should remain above freezing in the Louisville area, so traffic problems should be no worse than wet roads.
4-5 days ago the models were predicting a major cold air outbreak to hit the eastern half of the country this weekend. But, nature didn’t seem to get the message – in reality the cold air is pushing east rather than south. So, now it looks like a cold day tomorrow followed by warming Friday into the weekend. Not as warm as last weekend, but still very nice for late February.
Note: I know some forecasts floating around include the possibility of up to an inch of snow (on grassy areas), but that idea seems to me to be a real outlier.
Tuesday, Feb. 16, 2016
Small clipper system has been difficult for the models to define well…until now. As mentioned yesterday, the models had strengthened the system so that the surface reflection would pass to our south. Today’s models are even stronger, so it now looks as though the whole thing will stay south of Louisville. Areas west and south of Louisville will receive some some light rain this afternoon, but I’ll give it only a small (30%) chance for measurable rainfall for Louisville.
Any precipitation in KY should be south of Louisville and east of I-65 by 7 P.M. After that, a few snow flurries will be possible tonight but create no problems.
Tomorrow will remain cloudy and cold, but sunshine returns with a nice warm up expected Thursday through Sunday. Two or three days could reach into the 60’s.
Note:
I guess a better way to express the title today should say…Another near hit?
Note 2:
Snow accumulations from Sunday’s storm…
Monday, Feb, 15, 2016
Quick update today. As expected, large storm gaining strength to our south is heading toward the Appalachians with plenty of snow, but mostly rain. Southeastern KY could get some flooding rains tonight.
That system could bring some rains as far north as the Ohio River. I’d make it about and 40% chance for rain reaching Louisville for a couple of hours this evening. Most areas south and east of Louisville will see rain tonight.
Yet another Clipper will approach the area tomorrow afternoon. Models can’t agree with each other with this system. It is stronger than expected and will likely take a path south of Louisville. That puts us in “snow territory”, but the storm will be small and weakening as it absorbs into today’s southern storm. The result should be some light snow (possibly mixed with rain) tomorrow afternoon. Little, if any snow accumulation is expected. No road problems are expected due to temperatures above freezing.
Sunday, Feb. 14, 2016 (Noon)
Everything still looks on track with previous discussions on today’s snow. After a dusting this this morning, steady snow should be arriving by 1 P.M. Heaviest snows should be between 2 P.M. and 5 P.M. Models today have been a little more generous with snow accumulations, so I’m going to increase my forecast a bit. I now expect we’ll see a 2″ – 3″ snow accumulation this afternoon and early evening. Snow should fade to a few flurries by 7 P.M. to 9 P.M. tonight. Rising temperatures into the 40’s tomorrow should wipe out the snow quickly.
That third “short wave” I’ve been discussing the past few days is still going to be the biggest one. Look for heavy snows 6″ + along the Appalachians (from eastern KY up into New England tomorrow. That system could also bring us a little rain (especially east of I-65) late tomorrow.
Another clipper should bring us a little rain and/or snow late Tuesday. Then, a BIG warming trend later this week!
Today’s snow…
Snow: approx.: 1 P.M. – 8 P.M.
Snow accumulation: Louisville area 2″ -3″. The southern half of Kentucky will see higher totals. South of the parkways should get 4″-6″ of snow, especially west of I-65. Southern Indiana will be on the lighter side – mostly 1″ -2″, but up to 3″ near the river.
Let the fun begin! Happy Valentine’s day!
Saturday, February 14, 2016
Today’s GFS and NAM have become pretty close to each other with regard to the light snow storm expected tomorrow. And, they both continue the faster approach of the snow. As it looks now, snow should begin tomorrow morning. Arrival time should be between 10 A.M. and NOON. Snow should continue through the afternoon, then diminish during the evening. Accumulation around the Louisville area should run in the 1″ – 2″ range. Higher snow totals are likely over most of Kentucky south of Louisville. Plus, another Gulf coastal storm forming early Monday could add additional snow for the southern half of the commonwealth. That storm should not effect southern Indiana or northern KY.
So, by midday Monday, accumulations of snow could reach the 4″-8″ range over southern KY while the Louisville area remains in the 1″ – 2″ range (or lower by then). Temperatures Monday should jump into the 40’s, so any snow we get won’t last long.
Looking ahead…yet another Clipper appears on the horizon for Tuesday. Current indications are that the surface reflection of the system will move north of Kentucky. That puts us in the zone where not much happens. After that temperatures should begin a major upward trend – could even reach the 60’s by next Friday.
Stuff
Monday we’ll celebrate Presidents Day. However, there really is no “official” day to celebrate our Presidents. The official name is still Washington’s Birthday. But, after the 1971 act to make the three-day weekends, people have just been calling it Presidents Day. But, it’s not!
Friday, February 12, 2016
Another blast of cold air is pushing across the Ohio Valley setting the stage for a very cold weekend. The new surge of cold air should bring along some snow flurries, but just a dusting of snow is likely. High temperatures tomorrow will only reach 20-22 but Sunday should warm to around 30. But, the big question is whether all that cold air will be setting the table for some snow.
Yesterday, I discussed the upper level “wave train” that would the big feature in our weather for the next few days. (Additional details in yesterday’s post) Wave 1 passed over the area this morning with the expected results. Wave 2 still looks on target to the discussion yesterday…with one exception. It now looks as though the timing of the system will be about 6-12 hours earlier thought.
So, Sunday’s outlook now looks like this: Thickening clouds during the day with light snow beginning by late afternoon. Periods of light snow continue overnight but ending before daybreak. This remains a rather disorganized storm system. Snow forecast remains in the 1″ to 2″ for the Louisville area with perhaps a little more over southern Kentucky.
Biggest changes to forecast are with the “last wave on the train.” As mentioned yesterday, the last energy pulse is (almost) always the strongest. Today’s models have emphasized that idea by making wave 3 even deeper that yesterday. If this trend holds up, what once looked like a good chance for a sizable snowstorm now looks as though it’ll probably miss us entirely. Now appears that the storm will organize over the Gulf states then head up the Appalachians as another major snow-maker for the eastern states.
As things stand now, the Washington’s Birthday holiday will be cloudy and cold with snow flurries possible – a far cry from what the models have been indicating for the past week. Oh, well. There’s still time for change.
Stuff
Valentine’s Day derives from an ancient Roman festival named Lupercalia. The February 13-15th festival was a fertility rite believed to be in honor of the god of agriculture.