Friday Morning

It’s like a three ring circus today – three models, three different solutions.  Trying to put it all together, here are a few things I’m pretty confident about.  1).  Our weather should remain dry through 6 P.M. Saturday (except for a small possibility for a few sprinkles overnight).  2).  Severe thunderstorms appear likely tomorrow night over northern/central Indiana moving into Ohio by Sunday morning.  Severe chance for Louisville area looks to be very small as peak storm chance for us will come from about Midnight Saturday until 8 A.M.  Sunday.  3).  One thing the models do agree upon is expected rainfall from this system.  Yesterday they placed a 1″+ swath of rain over most of IN and KY.  Today’s forecasts have dropped that by more than half.  Now the models are putting a 1-2″ path generally from Indy to Cincinnati with rapid dropoff south of that line.

So this could be a very interesting, and frustrating weekend for us forecasters as many things could go wrong.  But, forecast the weather is what I do, so here’s what I’m thinking now:

This Afternoon:  Mostly sunny…high mid 80’s (low humidity)

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy and warm…a few sprinkles possible…low…72.

Saturday:  Partly cloudy, hot and humid…high…90

Sat Night:  Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially after midnight.  Strong gusty   winds possible..low’…70

Sunday: Showers/thundershowers ending by late morning, then partly cloudy and warm…high…86.

Stuff

Pigs and humans are in a select group – we are the only two species who get sunburns.

Three may keep a secret if two of them are dead.  (unknown)

Thursday Afternoon

Yesterday’s showers danced around the area with little to show for their efforts.  One exception was a narrow area of .25″+ rain from near LaGrange eastward into western Henry County. I have my sprinkler running right now.

Meanwhile pleasant weather will continue through tomorrow although it’ll be a little warmer in the afternoon.  The weekend should get off to a pretty good start – partly cloudy, upper 80’s and more humid on Saturday.  Then, we’ll begin to feel the effects of yet another upper air trough digging south into the Great Lake and Ohio Valley regions.  We’ve seen a lot of these systems this summer and have enjoyed the cool weather they’ve brought.  But, although they look very promising for rain several days in advance, lately they have failed to deliver on that promise.  Currently, the models are painting a large stripe of 1″ plus rains over the area.  But, even now, the models are putting some “red flags” on the rain outlook.  They are locking in on Midnight Saturday night until Noon Sunday as the preferred time for the most energy to be near us.  This time of year, that’s often a death trap for rain.  But, I’m sure there will be some changes to that outlook before Saturday.

Stuff – neat photo

Found the photo below from  www.spaceweather.com  Photographer was Stine Bretteberg and photo was taken in northern Norway.

We are accustomed to the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.  But it’s not that way over all the earth.  Over polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere the sun never sets on the date of the Summer Solstice (usually June 20 or 21) and for several weeks either side of that date.  It’s commonly known as the Land of the Midnight Sun.   So, if the sun doesn’t set, what does it do?  It goes around and around in circles.  It starts in May as the sun hugging the horizon.  Each day until the solstice, the sun gets higher in the sky as it circles around the horizon.  After the solstice, it slowly winds back down.

The photo was taken around midnight with the sun sitting on the horizon while a layer of ice crystal clouds (cirrostratus, for Latin lovers) is in the sky.  As a result, several optical features all appear together.  First, the midnight sun; second, A large halo around the sun; and third, a set of sun dogs (parhelia) sitting in the halo at the horizon.  The Sun Dogs are the bright spots (often they have the colors of a rainbow faintly displayed) seen near the horizon directly east and west of the sun.

Addendum (also for my Latin speaking friends)

Talking about the sun’s behavior at high latitudes brings to mind an old story from a college textbook.  It seems an agricultural group , upon hearing about the sun’s polar activity, decided that would be the ideal place to raise sunflowers.  So they packed up some gear and headed off to the Land of the Midnight Sun and set of a greenhouse and planted their sunflower seeds.  At first, everything went well – the plants grew quickly and were tall and  e healthy.  Then, when the flowers started to grow, they did what sunflowers do – they followed the sun around and around and around until they slowly strangled themselves to death!

Tuesday Afternoon

Not a lot of time today, so if you haven’t read yesterday’s forecast discussion, I’d advise you to start there.  Also, today’s weather reminds me of how much I HAVEN’T missed this type this summer.

Models have come into pretty close agreement today and now focus our  best chance for showers/t-storms tomorrow between 10 A.M. and 4 P.M.  Yesterday I mentioned the system to our south essentially blocking any significant moisture northward.  All models are hitting hard on that idea today.  The result for us adds up to less aerial coverage, reducing any severe threat to near zero and overall reduced amounts of rain.  By tomorrow evening,  cooler, drier air return for another couple of days.

Stuff

The famous quote, “Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.” is usually attributed to Shakespeare.  But he didn’t write it.  Sir Walter Scott is the actual author.

Sunday Evening

Now that the clouds have finally thinned out, it looks like typical hazy, hot and humid summer weather through most of Wednesday with daytime highs near 90 and nighttime lows near 70 with patchy fog.  Wednesday looks like our best chance for thunderstorms for the week.  A weak cool front should pass the area Wednesday night with the possibility of thunderstorms ahead of, and along, the front.

Later in the week, cooler, drier air returns for a few days.  After Wed. it looks like our next chance for rain won’t come until late in the weekend.

Stuff

When the popular soft drink 7up was first introduced(1929), its name was Bib-Label Lithiatated Lemon-Lime Soda.  The modern name comes from the 7 ounce bottles it came in plus the way the carbonation bubbled UP in the bottle.

More Stuff

I’m using a square bathtub now so I can’t get a ring.                                                                       unknown

Friday Afternoon

Models, and the actual weather, continue to bring the moisture farther north than anticipated.  Quicker, too.  We’ve had some very light showers in the area, especially along and east of I-65.  So far, it’s been mostly trace amounts.  The short-term RAP model continues to keep the western edge of the higher moisture right over the Louisville area until about 8 PM.  After that, any lingering showers should move away to the northeast.  Another chance for additional light showers tomorrow morning remains for about 8-11 A.M.  (Note: The “official” forecast for tonight and tomorrow mentions thunderstorms.  That’s just not going to happen)  (Note 2:  Rainfall tonight and tomorrow morning should be very light…averaging between a “trace” and a few hundredths of an inch.  Not enough to give a good soaking to our dry lawns and gardens.  More of a nuisance than anything else.)

Stuff

I drove by a gas station today and saw something I’ve never seen before.  Both the price per gallon for regular and diesel were exactly the same – $3.869.

More stuff

Show me a twin birth and I’ll show you an infant replay.                                                               unknown