Category Archives: forecast

I don’t want to complain, but…

Leave a reply

Saturday, August 13, 2016  11:45 P.M.

What a miserable week of forecasting we’ve been victimized by all week and the worst is still happening.  Thursday and Friday the forecasts, aided by the ever-willing media hype made it sound like we were due for ark-building rains.  Only one thing was wrong – the models had already backed off of the extreme rain forecast by THURSDAY.  By Friday, the models had backed off the threat of heavy rain even more.  It was obvious that heavy, flooding rains were out of the picture for today and Sunday.  So, the NWS did the “obvious” thing – issued a Flash Flood Watch for Louisville area and southern Indiana.

Today worked out just the way the models predicted – a few very light showers in the metro area with heavier rain over central Indiana.  However, the Flash Flood Watch was expanded over a larger area Sat. morning…ever though the NWS forecast had reduced the chances for rain by about 20% or so for next 48 hours!

A few showers are possible overnight, but very little, if any, rain is likely for Sunday and heavy rain Monday will stay far to our west.  But, the Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday.  My advice to the NWS is pretty simple:  Stop hyping a dead forecast…it died a long time ago.

Quiet night

Leave a reply

Monday, July 18, 2016  6 P.M.

Atmosphere has quieted over much of the region and should remain calm, but very warm and muggy tonight.  In spite of the Weather Service’s 40% chance for rain/t-storms tonight, the actual chance for rain is pretty close to zero.

Plenty of heat and humidity will be the primary story this week,  Don’t be surprised if we reach the upper 90’s.

What happened to that “Godzilla” El Nino

We did have a strong El Nino during the winter.  It actually turned out to be a little stronger than the one in 1998, but it was far less destructive for the U.S.  In fact, this El Nino  could probably be described as more beneficial than damaging for the western states.  Reservoir levels at at, or slightly above, normal for July from central California northward, but conditions remain far too dry over the south.  If this winter was “Godzilla”, California could use several more winters just like it.

Almost always, El Nino’s are followed by La Nina conditions.  It didn’t take long.  Ocean water temperatures have been falling for months.  Neutral conditions were reached during May.  Then last week entered weak La Nina conditions.  How strong the La Nina will become remains to be seen, but current forecasts predict it’ll remain in the mild to moderate range through the rest of the year.  As a result, global air temperatures  will probably drop below normal for a few months later this year.

 

Another tricky day

Leave a reply

Friday, July 15, 2016  3 P.M.

This has become an ongoing problem recently – wide model divergence on thunderstorm chances.  It’s back again today.  Both the GFS and NAM literally ignore the chances for thunderstorms later today while the short-term models develop storms in the area over the next few hours.

With a weak, slow-moving cold front lying over southern IN and plenty of low level moisture available, it should look like a no-brainer for storms.  However, there are some problems.  Even though the surface is moist, the upper air doesn’t appear to have much water to add.  And, there’s no readily available upper air energy to initiate convection.

Still, the surface-based instability is high along the Ohio River.  And we’re in the time of maximum daytime temperatures, so the surface conditions should suffice to create at least some small thunderstorms over the next few hours (until 7-8 P.M.)  The cold front should also be favorable to allowing a nearly solid line of storms to form and drift southeast.  So, it looks like most (if not all) of the Louisville Metro should experience a shower and/or thunderstorm later this afternoon

T-storm update

Leave a reply

Wednesday, July 13, 2016  4 P.M.

Looks like my earlier forecast is going to be a bust.  Radar showing nothing happening nearby.  So the heat and humidity rule.

My (former?) friends, the RAP/HRRR have backed off from the idea of afternoon thunderstorms, but still show high chances for a line of t-storms tonight – probably between 8 P.M. and Midnight.  So, at least part of my forecast may still happen.  Could be a good light show tonight.

8 P.M. update

Currently strong line of thunderstorms east of Evansville is racing eastward about 30-40 mph.  It should sweep across the metro area between 10 – 11 P.M.  It is weakening ( and will continue on that path) so no problems are expected.

Forecast models in conflict again

Leave a reply

Wednesday, July 13, 2016  11 A.M.

Once again, the short term models are at odds with the primary models.  Everyone agrees that it’ll be hot and humid today, but the chances for thunderstorms vary considerably.

First, the big models…the NAM doesn’t produce any  chance for t-storms anywhere over KY or southern IN.  The GFS hints at a small chance especially north of the Ohio River, but it’s numerical statistical output is less than 10% for this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the short-term regional models are much more enthusiastic with t-storm development.  The RAP predicts a large cluster of storms over our area late this afternoon.  The HRRR is even more aggressive with an afternoon and an evening storm cluster moving over us.

The Weather Service is sticking with the NAM/GFS, but with a slight nod toward the short term models.  They give us a 20% rain chance today and tonight.

But, the RAP/HRRR were developed for situations such as this.  They are designed to do the fine-tuning between the gaps in the larger models.  And, last week in a similar situation, they did a great job.  I expect the RAP/HRRR to continue doing their jobs well.  So, I’d expect a much higher chance we’ll see t-storms later today…60% chance or higher.

We’ll see how this battle works out in a few hours.

 

More odds and ends

Leave a reply

Tuesday, June 14, 2016  (Flag Day)

Current Weather:

Humidity rushed into the area in a BIG way late this morning.  Dew points jumped from the mid 50’s to near 70 degrees in three hours!  That has set the stage for some classic popup “hit ‘n’ miss” showers and thunderstorms.  So, far they are mostly west of I-65 but they should advance slowly eastward later this afternoon.  They are moving very slowly – about 10 mph, so if you get caught under one, watch out for some heavy rain in a short time.  As with most so-called “popups” they form quickly then rain themselves out in about an hour.

Looks like a smaller chance for thunderstorms tomorrow, but if any arrive they should be stronger than today’s.

Muhammad Ali:

With the recent death of The Champ and all the television coverage celebrating the international life of our home town hero, the story of the beginning trail of the future “Greatest” was repeated many times.  The story of the stolen bike which began the Joe Martin connection which  led to the boxing ring and future greatness is well known.  WAVE’s tv boxing show for young boxers, “Tomorrow’s Champions”, turned out to be well-named because of some appearances by a young Cassius Clay.  That story is also well known.  But apparently not all of it.

When I arrived at WAVE in 1969, the most popular story included additional details that I didn’t hear anyone relate last week.  So, as the late Paul Harvey would have said, “Here’s the rest of the story…”  Apparently, on Cassius’s first appearance on “Tomorrow’s Champions,” it came time for his match.  But, he was nowhere in sight.  Not in the studio, not in the halls, not in the rest rooms.  Finally WAVE’s legendary Ed Kallay found him in a broom closet…hiding and fighting back tears!  STAGE FRIGHT.  Ed cheered him (as he did countless children over the years),  and got him into the ring.  As they say, the rest is history.

Ali 2:

(Continued later)

More showers/t-storms rumbling toward us.

Leave a reply

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Today is another situation where we have a very fine line between strong thunderstorms and a marginally “severe” storm or two.  Nothing really to worry about as the situation just can’t quite get its act together.

Large trough dropping into the midwest will slowly push eastward tonight and tomorrow.  A strong short wave disturbance is rotating around this trough and aiming for the south.  The northern halves of AL and MS as well as western TN  should see a significant severe storm outbreak this evening and tonight.

Meanwhile, a much weaker short wave is moving over western KY right now and is generating a cluster of showers and thunderstorms as it moves toward us.  Look for this rain to reach Louisville about 4 P.M. and depart before 7 P.M.  Some of the embedded thunderstorms could be strong but should not reach into the “severe” range.  (Although with the trend of recent years for the NWS declaring almost any strong thunderstorm “severe”,  I would not be surprised if a  warning or two is issued.)  Keep in mind that a 58 mph wind (the lower limit of severe storms) will do a lot of damage.  Compared to a 50 mph wind gust (which doesn’t do a lot of damage, a 58 mph wind gust has about 35% MORE FORCE!

Later tonight, a cold front will cross IN into KY.  This front should become very active in the next few hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this front, especially over western and south central Indiana from about 6 P.M. to 9 P.M. EDT.  The southern end of this area will reach the Louisville between 9 P.M. until midnight.  No severe weather weather is expected with this line.  In fact, there’s a reasonable chance it’ll die out before reaching us.

 

 

 

 

You can WATCH all night, but you aren’t likely to see any severe storms

Leave a reply

Easter Sunday, 8 P.M.

Severe storm WATCH for the area – looks like the forecasters at SPC were a little bored and tried to get a little excitement in today’s weather.

But the models are showing any instability to grind down to near zero by 9 P.M. AND since the major line of showers/t-storms won’t arrive in Louisville area until after 9 P.M., any threat for severe thunderstorms is close to zero.  Just a few hours of nice rain to help bring us our April showers.

Happy Easter.

Better day tomorrow!

Leave a reply

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Quite rainy day…most of Jefferson County seems to be nearing (or over) the one inch mark  now (5:45 P.M.) with more due until about Midnight.  After that,  weak cool front drops across the area and pushes the rain eastward for tomorrow.  But the upper air system looks like it’ll reload tomorrow and return the on-and-off showers for Saturday through Monday.

Next week figures to remain mild, but it should’t be nearly as wet.

El Nino

The current El Nino is beginning to wind down, but should not drop to “normal” status until this summer.  But, historically, a strong El Nino brings a La Nina in its wake.  So, beginning later this year, our Earth is likely to see below normal temperatures setting in and lasting for a year or two.  According to satellite data, February was Earth’s warmest month (during the satellite era).  The previous record was set during another strong El Nino year – 1998.

El Nino precipitation

El Nino weather patterns are known to bring above normal precipitation totals to the southwestern U.S.  Drought-stricken California was greatly anticipating plenty of rain and snow this winter.  Until last weekend the winter rainy season hadn’t lived up to expectations.   Now,  after last weekend’s heavy rains put a lot of water into the state’s reservoirs, there is hope that many of the recent water restrictions may be eased this year.

Even better news is that at least two more significant storms appear headed toward the Golden State over the next week to 10 days.  If they both make it, California’s water situation will look better than it has for many years!

Comic relief

Saw a headline recently, “Researchers now say that man’s influence on climate may date back to the 1930’s.  $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$…yes, that’s your hard-earned money (tax dollars)  being wasted on insanity.  The headline gave me a good laugh, but in the larger picture, it should have made me cry.  It’s sad, really, about all the money being  wasted over the “climate change” agenda.

The “problem”, if you want to call it that, is nothing new.  Ever since humans learned to cultivate crops and to live in communities, we have been inadvertently altering our climate.  As our population has grown to over seven billion, the change we bring to our Earth has been expanding.  Carbon dioxide is just a drop in the bucket compared to the overall picture.  As climate has changed in the past, humans have acclimated, or adapted, to the new circumstances.  In spite of the “stories” we’re being told by many so-called leaders, Earth’s climate is NOT broken, so it can’t be FIXED.  It just changes, and so must we.

Windy and colder tonight

Leave a reply

Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016

As the major surface low pressure area moved right over the area this morning, we actually got a break from the heavy rain and even saw some sunshine with temperatures in the upper 50’s for an hour or two.  Then, as the low moved northeast, the colder air on it’s backside dropped temperatures in a hurry…and the rain resumed.

But, we’ve seen the worst  of it now.  Winds will start decreasing this evening and the rain, possibly changing to snow, will be diminishing between 7 P.M. and 9 P.M.  After 9 P.M., light rain showers and/or snow flurries will be scattered around the area during the night.  Whether we have  rain or snow  showers doesn’t make any difference.  If it’s snow, it’ll melt on impact so there’ll be no accumulation – so it essentially makes a situation I like to call “white rain.”  It has the same impact as rain.

Temperatures should remain above freezing in the Louisville area, so traffic problems should be no worse than wet roads.

4-5 days ago the models were predicting a major cold air outbreak to hit the eastern half of the country this weekend.  But, nature didn’t seem to get the message – in reality the cold air is pushing east rather than south.  So, now it looks like a cold day tomorrow followed by warming Friday into the weekend.  Not as warm as last weekend, but still very nice for late February.

Note:    I know some forecasts floating around include the possibility of up to an inch of snow (on grassy areas), but that idea seems to me to be a real outlier.