Thursday, January 14, 20216 P.M.

Lot’s of activity, but still lacking cold air

Temperatures have been mild this winter so far.  The short cold spell around Christmas is about the coldest we’ve been.  And, overall, the weather here has been rather quiet.  But, part of that equation is about to change.

Weather patterns are really expected to pick up over the next ten days as a major upper air trough over central is expected to expand and slowly move eastward.  That eastward shift opens up the opportunity to push some significant cold air south over the eastern U.S., but not until about 7-10 days from now.

Meanwhile, upper air patterns are going to start moving quickly across the country.  The first one will move over the northern Ohio Valley tonight and tomorrow.  Some scattered light showers will be likely this evening, but they will be of little consequence since the Gulf of Mexico is shut off from this system.  As colder air arrives tomorrow a few rain and/or snow showers will be possible.  Best chance for snow showers will be tomorrow night with accumulations up to one inch on grassy areas.  Temperatures should remain above freezing, so no major road problems are expected.   Some flurries could continue Saturday.

Sunday another disturbance will float over the area.  Once again Gulf moisture will be missing, so snow potential will be on the low side – probably up to a half-inch or so.

At least a couple more disturbances will hit the area next week, but there won’t be enough cold air to make snow…just cold rain.

It’s a long way off, but a storm expected next weekend should be quite strong and offer a rain-changing-to-snow situation.  It might be strong enough to push us into a “colder than normal” weather pattern.

Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2020

Seems like the thoughts of snow have brought me out of hibernation.  So, here come some thoughts on yet another one of our rain/sleet/snow situations…

In general, an active upper air trough will swing out of the Rockies through the Ohio Valley to the east coast by late tomorrow.  Ordinarily, that would bring us some rain under the current temperature setup.  But, this system features a big twist.  A big lobe of energy has dropped into the far southern part of the system.  That piece of energy will gradually take control and become the primary driver of the spectacular nor’easter expected to drop a foot or two of snow from West VA, PA and to New England by tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, we’ll be left with a dying system over the Ohio Valley.  Thus, total precipitation will probably amount to a quarter-inch or less.  But, in what form will it fall?

One important thing – all models agree that temperatures around 5000 feet above the surface will stay below freezing.  That definitely keeps snow in play.  Also important is when the dying upper air system trudges up the Ohio River, temperatures in the lower atmosphere will warm.  That pushes the odds for rain/drizzle higher.

Forecast

Put a line about 20 miles south of the Ohio River.

If you live south of that line, you’ll see a rain/snow mix after 3 A.M. changing to rain after an hour or two.  By daybreak, it’ll be rain/drizzle through midday.  Possible flurries late afternoon/evening.

For the rest of us,  here’s how I think it’ll work – Clouds will thicken this evening while local temperatures drop into the mid thirties.   Around 3 A.M. some snow should begin.  Mixed with rain and/or sleet, it’ll continue until about daybreak.  Little accumulation on roadways, but grassy areas could see 1″-2″ locally.  Up to 3″ farther north of the river.

After daybreak, we’ll see periods of light snow, rain and mostly drizzle through the morning.  No additional accumulation is expected.  In fact, most of the overnight snow should melt away.  Snow flurries will be likely again as colder air arrives late afternoon into the evening

Sunday, June 28, 2020  8 P.M.

Disappointing rain, so far.

Weather Service has really cranked up the rain probabilities recently and continues them well into the week.  The best chances for wide spread rains, however, seem to be over.  Lots of rain yesterday, last night and this morning.  Soaking, even flooding, rains fell over central Indiana and most of Kentucky, but not here.  Along and north of I-64 there was about a 60 mile wide area with very little rain.  Plenty of rain north and from southern Jefferson County southward.  But most of us missed out.  Never good news during the growing season.

Meanwhile, NWS continues with 70% – 80% most of the time tonight through Tuesday. I’m hoping they are right, but to me the situation isn’t nearly that clear cut.  The rains of the past 36 hours had some pretty good upper dynamics, but that support has faded.  We still have lots of moisture and a fading warm front hanging around, but with upper dynamics weak I’d drop the rain chances to the 30-40% range – more scattered showers/t-storms than widespread.

I’d still love for some worthwhile rain to hit my lawn and garden.

Now, to that strange headline above.

The Land of “I”

I have a lot of concerns.  The one I’m going to discuss here is nothing new.  It has, however, reared it’s ugly head to much greater extremes and ruinous results during the current presidential regime.  It’s been revealed that our PIC (Prevaricator In Chief) has some really nasty genes.  (True, that was well known before the election, but too many Americans failed to grasp the reality.)

Our PIC has been the embodiment of, and promoter of, the “I” generation.  The “I” generation has only one concern – themselves.  Whenever PIC speaks, the words “I” and “me” are constantly being expressed.  Anybody remember hearing the word “we”?  Doesn’t ring a bell to me.  PIC’s “thing” has been this MAGA  nonsense.  That won’t work with I.  “I” has made America worse before and, especially, after PIC took over.  (A side thought…maybe Joe Biden should campaign using the slogan – Make America Great Again! )

Let’s take a look back.   World War II.  The era that produced what Tom Brokaw named the Greatest Generation.  Along with help from many nations, the United States led the battle to defeat the evil empires of Germany and Japan.  Millions of Americans joined together to produce the greatest military victory this world has ever seen.  It was a huge sacrifice – rationing, shortages, blackouts in addition to the battle casualties.  It was an effort enabled by Americans working together – WE.

After World War II, Americans continued to work together.  WE were the leaders of the world.  WE beat polio.  WE made the Russian missiles leave Cuba.  WE won the Cold War.  It’s impossible to mention all the WE moments Americans achieved.  But, somewhere along the way, WE started to fade and “I” started becoming important.

Looking back, I think things started unraveling during the Vietnam War.  WE became divided over the war.  But, when the war ended, WE never fully recovered.  Additional wars have further divided Americans.  Each time, the “I” factor grew.

But, the change hasn’t been only about war.  Front and center – the Anti-vaxxers.  What could be more simple than taking a shot to eradicate a dangerous disease from the world?  It’s obvious to WE vaccines are a good thing.  But “I” says no.  ‘I” will not vaccinate my child.  I don’t care if your kids get sick.

In this time of great uncertainty, the “I” movement has really become emboldened – and PIC has been cheering them all the way. Don’t do simple things like stay at home or wear masks – that’s your right.  Don’t care about WE who don’t want covid 19.  WE can’t peacefully demonstrate because “I” will send in the troops to clear the way for my photo at a church “I” haven’t been in since Inaugural Day.  And on and on…

“I” has been slowly growing in the U.S. for decades, but the trend has accelerated since PIC took over.  He has clearly demonstrated that “I” only weakens us.  Only WE can get America moving in the right direction again.  My hope is that WE will find something to unite around to get us moving in the right direction…before it’s too late.

Tuesday, May 26, 2020  11:30 A.M.

More showers, t-storms today

Big disconnect today between the NWS forecast and the models’ forecasts.  NWS has just a 20% chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.  Models, however, are the most favorable for showers/t-storms they’ve been for quite awhile.  They indicate at least a 60% – 70% chance you’ll have rain at your house this afternoon/evening.  Man vs. machine…we’ll see how it works out!  Personally, I’ll go with the machines.

Sunday, April 12, 2020   4:30 P.M.

For the past two days the Storm Prediction Center has been predicting a major severe weather outbreak over the deep south into central Tennessee.  They have been including KY and southern IN in the “slight risk” area, but their discussion has included several “ifs” for us.  In essence, plenty of uncertainty for KY/IN.

As the situation has been evolving today, there’s been a good news/bad news scenario developing.  Bad news for the deep south means good news for us.  Mississippi has been hit this afternoon and things look very bad for Alabama, central TN and Georgia tonight.  That major outbreak will block some needed severe storm ingredients from traveling this far north. So, even though we’ll see two periods of showers/thunderstorms tonight, the threat for “severe” thunderstorms will be very low – less than 5%.

Showers/thunderstorms in the local area now will move northeast of Louisville by 8-9 P.M.  Then, we’ll have a 5-6 hour period of dry weather along with rising temperatures!  Another period of showers/t-storms will arrive with gusty winds a couple of hours after Midnight.  This rain system should end during the morning rush hour.

Tomorrow will be cloudy, very windy and cooler.  Temperatures should drop into the low to mid 50’s tomorrow morning and stay steady during the afternoon.  The winds will be tomorrow’s weather feature with frequent gusts over 30 mph and a few gusts over 40 mph possible.

Monday, March 30, 2020  11 P.M.

I’ve been puzzled since yesterday about the NWS forecast for a 50% chance for rain tomorrow.  All the models have been keeping the rain south of Louisville.  Tonight’s models keep the rain even farther south.  50% seems far too high for Tuesday.  So, a mostly cloudy sky with pleasantly cool temperatures in the 55-58 range appears likely.